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SEFTON RESOURCES INC - UNDERRATED OIL PRODUCER (SER)     

ptholden - 04 Aug 2006 19:53


???

Sefton Resources is an independent AIM quoted Oil and Gas company operating in the US. The companys principal current assets are two producing oilfields in California (Tapia Canyon Field and Eureka Canyon Field); it is also in the process of buying up prospective coal bed methane acreage (CBM) in Kansas.

Update from July 2007 AGM

Finance

I revealed in my annual statement that discussions were well advanced with
Banking institutions. The final phase of the agreement with a suitable bank
without complex and restrictive terms is now very near. This is weeks away
rather than months.

Oil

Oil production at Tapia has averaged 4,100 BO during the last five months. Which
is in line with last years levels. Once this finance is in place we will be able
to move ahead with drilling.

Drilling

We have stayed close to drilling contractors and we are ready to move forward
quickly when this finance is available.

Steam generation

The equipment is now in place at Tapia. Preparation time is needed to connect
the equipment and carry out the necessary trials required to get the main work
started. We anticipate this steaming will start in the next couple of months. If
successful a significant amount of oil resources will move into the Proven
Producing Reserves category.

Joint Ventures

Discussions continue with a number of interested parties to develop our Anderson
counties gas assets.

New finance team

A new CFO has been appointed with good knowledge and experience of the oil
industry. A new assistant to undertake all the daily needs has also been
appointed.


SWOT ANALYSIS

STRENGTHS:

Sefton has two oil fields, both producing. One is already profitable, and the other is breaking even. This should generate good cashflow for the company over the medium term.
Sefton owns 100% of both its major oil interests and is now demerging its non-controlled oil interests in order to concentrate on those where it has full control (Sefton has recently disposed of its Canadian assets for CDN450k cash).
Sefton is establishing a track record of using modern extraction technologies to improve the efficiency of its fields.

WEAKNESSES:

Sefton has suffered from a number of one-off factors. While these were out of the companys control the problems it has faced since 2002 have held back development and taken up management time. Investor disenchantment may account for the current low rating.

OPPORTUNITIES:

Sefton has acquired acreage for CBM (coal bed methane) in Kansas. CBM gas production is a thriving market and Sefton believes it has acquired the acreage at advantageous prices. While this is a longer term prospect it is an exciting one and could eventually eclipse the oil interests.
There are a number of other fields in the Ventura Basin and more generally in California as a whole that Sefton may look to target now its cash flows are stronger.
Eureka is a semi-exploration play which may contain further upside. This cannot yet be evaluated.
At this valuation the company may prove an attractive target for a larger player.

THREATS

Owing to its geographical location the company continues to be exposed to the threat of bush fires, canyon floods and geological interruption (earthquake risk). Sefton is taking steps to mitigate this risk by investing in Kansas and although Forest Basin area is susceptible to tornados - gas facilities have a minimal surface footprint.

LINKS:

Sefton Resources Web Site

Quarterly Update (Mar 08)

Operations Update Dated 14 January 2008

Hardman Report

Final Results - Year Ended 31 Dec 2006

2007 AGM & Update

In The News - Oil Barrel Dated 31 January 2007

Daily California Crude Oil Prices (MIDWAY SUNSET 13)

Chart.aspx?Provider=EODIntra&Code=SER&Si

markusantonius - 07 Aug 2006 00:11 - 22 of 2350

Pete, a PEST Analysis =

Political
Economical
Social
Technolgical - ANALYSIS

After your splendid attempt at SWOT, I thought a man of your high esteem would automatically know this!

moonshine - 07 Aug 2006 10:39 - 23 of 2350

Nice thread pt.

wrt the viscosity of oil produced by Sefton, this is from Sefton's website:

Oil produced at Tapia is moderately heavy, about 18 degrees API, and asphaltic. As such, its use is mainly for road surfacing, and to a lesser degree, fuel oil. When pricing our oil, the dollar amount for Wilmington 17 crude is used, with a slight upward allowance for our 18-degree oil. The Directors believe that the oil field is geographically well placed for its products uses.

Average oil gravity is [at Eureka] approximately 26 API.

I believe that SER the oil at Tapia has a discount of $10 to the price of Nymex Crude, I'm not sure about the price for Eureka's oil, but don't think that is discounted.

As regards SAGD, because there are a couple of faults running through the Tapia canyon they are going to implement huff'n'puff first. If this is successful, they will move on to SAGD, but they will not do anything to put oil production at risk.

ptholden - 07 Aug 2006 14:09 - 24 of 2350

Well Mark, seeing that you know what it stands for, feel free to crack on and do some research of your own! Although quite what you will come up with I'm not sure, we are talking about California here, not Basra or Southern Lebanon!!

As a rough guess:

Political - stable (although Bush will probably blow up San Fransisco when he gets bored with the Middle East)

Economical - Loads of money in California and desperate for oil / gas (oh, as long as it doesn't come out of my backyard)

Social - Lots if illegal immigrants from Mexico / Central America to work the fields.

Technological - Already covered by Huff n Puff / SAGD.

There you go, done it all for you already.

pth

markusantonius - 07 Aug 2006 14:32 - 25 of 2350

Oh, you do tend to "waffle", Pete. OK, try this...

Politically: - stable country.

Economically: - stable Western democracy.

Socially: - huge demand for product & socially acceptable.

Technologically: - infrastructure already in place to exploit it to its full potential.

M.

ptholden - 07 Aug 2006 17:12 - 26 of 2350

Well done Markie, you can go back to bed now :-)

The LSE really need to get the NMS of SER sorted out. A miserly 3000 shares gives us even less visibilty than normal. The MMs can do what they want with late / delayed reported trades and no-one has a scooby as to what is actually going on.

pth

Laila25 - 07 Aug 2006 20:18 - 27 of 2350

All shares fall after consolidation...expect no exception here. 4-5 pence short term target price once all the excitement dies away in the coming wks.

ptholden - 07 Aug 2006 20:22 - 28 of 2350

The ramping LaLa puts in an appearance. All views welcome, even those only posting here in retribution for my comments on the DMR thread. I would only ask that you try not to post lies LaLa, not all shares fall following consolidation. But then you and the truth are not close allies I'm afraid.

If SER falls it falls, we shall see.

pth

Laila25 - 07 Aug 2006 20:23 - 29 of 2350

Yes we shall c indeed.....all stocks fall and are dead duds after consolidation. Sefton will be no exception.

ptholden - 07 Aug 2006 20:48 - 30 of 2350

Post the truth LaLa not lies.

Not ALL consolidation stocks fall and become dead duds.

One example: Emerald Energy consolidated July/Aug 2004 at 1.20 per share. This year they had risen to 3.60ish, even now they are nearly double the consolidation price.

I can also give instances where consolidation has been a desperate attempt to keep a company going, but that isn't the point.

I don't mind you being negative with regard to SER prospects, but please attempt to post the truth, although I expect it may be a difficult concept for you.

pth

Laila25 - 07 Aug 2006 20:56 - 31 of 2350

Yeah whatever...I think 5 pence is coming...you just upset coz I ain't positive and ramping 50 pence.

5 pence soon.

ptholden - 07 Aug 2006 21:08 - 32 of 2350

Once again LaLa you fail to answer the argument and by failing to do so, you display a complete lack of credibility or integrity.

Why would I be upset? This thread was started as an alternative to the ramping thread that preceeded it, the last thing I want is for you to start ramping SER. You and all your aliases (Sue Helen etc) are known as the biggest rampers on the Internet. Were you to become postive on SER, any potential investor wouldn't take the thread seriously, so keep shouting 5p as loud as you like. You just don't get it do you? No-one listens to you anymore, your ramping / de-ramping career is over.

pth

ptholden - 07 Aug 2006 21:09 - 33 of 2350

Oh, and do keep posting, it keeps the thread at the top of the board :-))

Laila25 - 07 Aug 2006 22:33 - 34 of 2350

Nah think 5 pence soon....all shares fall considerably after consolidation.

ptholden - 07 Aug 2006 22:49 - 35 of 2350

Read my post 30/34..............ALL?
Having a problem reading? Guess the truth is somewhat difficult for you to follow or accept. You are so used to lying, you wouldn't know the truth if it hit you on the head.

Roll on 5p

Laila25 - 08 Aug 2006 05:06 - 36 of 2350

Yes indeed......roll on 5 pence.

aldwickk - 08 Aug 2006 06:57 - 37 of 2350

Its ok Laila25 keeping this thread at the top of the board like she/it/him does on the DMR thread but the posts will bog down the thread and put off new members from reading it.

Laila25 - 08 Aug 2006 14:30 - 38 of 2350

Down today.

markusantonius - 08 Aug 2006 14:36 - 39 of 2350

Pete, Glad you've found someone else to argue with, matey. Lalia, you must be a WOMAN... biting back REPETITIVELY, always wanting the last word!

I disagree with PTH over many things but I do think he has a point here. Listening to both sides of the argument (like I should've done with SEO, to my extreme cost!) is a good way of evaluating a potential new punt (I am not in, yet). So, let us hear your detailed arguments for shorting SER - I mean APART FROM the "after consolidation..." comments which I think we've all got the message on, by now ?

ptholden - 08 Aug 2006 18:08 - 40 of 2350

Mark

The only reason LaLa is here is because I have posted on the DMR thread. He is not a woman, although is better known as SueHelen and many other ramping aliases. You can expect to see a daily torrent of 'down today' (stating the blindingly obvious), 5p next stop and many other pathetic comments, all without any basis. LaLa is incapable of assembling any rational thought and posts of any length that you see will be invariably cut and pasted from another poster from another board. What you won't see are comments when the SP rises or on release of good news.

Personally, I am content with my investment. SER are producing oil and it is a given that when additional wells are drilled (later this year) that production will increase. There are plans for 9 more wells in the Tapia Field alone, which assuming all goes well (scuse the pun) should just about triple production. With current production rates at 180 BOPD, and the price of oil continuing to rise, a monthly revenue of $1M is not out of the question. This does not include the revenues from the Eureka Field nor the CBM prospects in Kansas.

Just my opinion.

pth

explosive - 08 Aug 2006 18:27 - 41 of 2350

Lets not forget the possibility of SAGD, this technology could well bolster production furhter.

Looking at SueHelens comments I would only seam logical that the sp quoted has simply been calculated by multiplying SER's average for the past 6 months of .0035 by 15 to get an approximate 5p current sp. Whilst this provides a base stability point it doesn't take into consideration the Hardman Report, SERs progress over the past 2 years, cash on hand for further investment or goodwill associated with the trend of an ever growing oil price.

I have concern regarding the future investment of SER, is the money best spent on CBM, SAGD or drilling. Not convinced that drilling will yeild the quickest revenue I think SAGD to be the best action for investment. Should it be unsucessful it would at least increase investor awareness of SER as still a relativly new technology.
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