Investec slapped a BUY reco on this late yesterday whilst broker Panmure has a firm hold.


National Express Group PLC

FORECASTS
2009 2010

Date Rec Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p) Pre-tax () EPS (p) DPS (p)

Investec Securities
07-12-09 BUY 116.00 29.93 137.18 35.46

Panmure Gordon
07-12-09 HOLD 118.98 30.88 143.17 37.16

sp down 10% after IMS.

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Looking rather bullish.

Half Year Results 25 July 2013

NEX looking sexy.

Ex divi wed 4th Sept (3.25p)

Ex-divi wed 30th Apr (6.75p)

StockMarketWire.com
National Express said during the period July 1 to date it has continued its strong progress. Q3 pretax profit was nearly 15% higher than the same period last year. "We are on target to meet our profit and cash expectations for the full year."

The company said it was progressively recovering the one-offs and currency translation impacts experienced in H1 through the delivery of revenue growth, performance improvements and cost efficiencies.

CEO Dean Finch commented:

"We have made good progress this quarter. We have won new contracts, renewed key concessions, and increased revenues in every division. Our profit last quarter was up on the same period in 2013, helping to offset the one-offs of the first half year. Our cash generation continues to be strong and will remain a focus for the business.

"This quarter again demonstrates that our strategy, rooted in excellent operational performance and customer service, is delivering retention and progression in our existing markets and securing expansion in to profitable new business. It is an approach we are determined to build on as we look at other opportunities in the coming months and years."

National Express continued to focus on driving strong cash generation and capital discipline:

· It was on course to deliver full year free cash flow target of £150 million, delivering nearly £500 million between 2012 and 2014;

· It was deploying capital selectively to protect and grow the business, investing in over 250 new buses over the next 12 months in UK Bus;

· The company's core diversified markets limit exposure and provide good growth potential;

· There would be a continued focus on cash generation in the coming years, developing capital light opportunities, reinvesting selectively in growth projects and driving shareholder value. National Express reported rising passenger numbers and revenue in every division this year:

· UK Bus has delivered 4% total revenue growth in the period and 3% year-to-date;

· Revenue is growing in Alsa with the successful roll out of revenue management in Spanish coach operations. Passenger volumes are now growing on all but one of the rail competed corridors and revenue has now recovered to the prior year level, delivering rapid progress;

· UK Coach has continued to build on last year's success, carrying 5% more passengers in the core express network year to date;

· North America has grown its number of routes, on the back of 98% targeted contract retention in the recent bid season;

· UK Rail has grown both revenue and passenger numbers and is well advanced on new franchise mobilisation.

It had also won new contracts and retained key concessions:

· Won a 10-year contract to run bus services in Bahrain, opening up the Middle East region for further growth;

· Retained and grown the company's largest Spanish concession to have come up for renewal so far - a €600 million total revenue contract for regional coach services in the Bilbao metropolitan region for up to 15 years;

· These achievements are built on the important successes earlier in the year, including: the retention of the 15 year, £4 billion Essex Thameside ('c2c') rail franchise; renewal of its largest US Transit contract; retention and significant growth of National Express' Memphis School Bus contract, becoming its largest contract in the US; successfully commissioning its new Moroccan bus franchise in Tangiers.

StockMarketWire.com
National Express has improved its FY pretax profit to £66.5m, from £64.4m a year earlier. Revenue was £1.87bn, from £1.89bn. It proposed a FY dividend of 10.3p a share, up 3% on the year.

CEO Dean Finch said:
"National Express has made significant progress over the past year. Every division is carrying more passengers and has grown revenue. We have successfully retained key existing contracts, recently won another two rail contracts in Germany and this month started operating our Bahrain bus contract.

"I am particularly pleased with our very strong cash performance, which has again exceeded our target.

"This strong performance means we are in an excellent position to continue to exploit new opportunities.

"Our North American business has more than doubled profitability in the last five years and provides us with a strong platform for further growth in the coming years. Coupled with the opportunity for further growth in German Rail and the Middle East, I am optimistic about the future prospects of the business."

Highlights:
· Group revenue increased 2% to £1.87 billion on a constant currency basis; down 1% on a reported basis (2013: £1.89bn)

· Group normalised profit before tax rose 7% to £145.4 million on a constant currency basis; up 1% on a reported basis (2013: £143.7m)

· Statutory Group profit before tax grew by 3% to £66.5 million (2013: £64.4m); up 10% on a constant currency basis

· Group ROCE increased to 12.4% (2013: 11.7%)

· Year-on-year EPS growth of 6% to 22.7 pence (2013: 21.5 pence)

· Free cash flow of £190 million is £40 million ahead of target and higher than last year (2013: £182.8m). Since 2009, National Express has generated £1billion of free cash

· Net debt reduced by over £80 million to £664.3 million (2013: £746.1m)

StockMarketWire.com
National Express has made a good start to 2015 and is on track to deliver the Board's expectations for the full year, its CEO, Dean Finch, said. The results reflect the company's ongoing commitment to deliver excellent operational performance and customer service.

"We continue to drive our strategy to develop opportunities in existing and new markets with a number of exciting bids submitted since the start of the year and our plans for further bids are progressing well. We have seen the successful mobilisation of our operations in Bahrain, our first bus service contract in the Middle East, which we see as an important stepping stone towards further growth in the region.

"We continue to see Germany as an important market for our ambitions in rail and see prospects for further growth there. We believe that, in time, German Rail will make a significant contribution to Group earnings.

"Around the world, whether as a result of privatisations in Western countries or pressure for improved public transport in developing and emerging economies, we see a range of exciting opportunities for us. Our portfolio of assets uniquely positions National Express to exploit these opportunities.

"Cash generation remains strong and we are well placed to seek new avenues of growth, enabling us to continue to deliver shareholder value. In light of this and our long-term future in rail, we will review our dividend policy as the year progresses."

Performance highlights include:
· Growth in revenue across all divisions with passenger volumes up 2%

· Group profit ahead year-on-year after adjusting for one-off costs of adverse weather in North America and the strike in Spain last year, and also after absorbing increased premium charges in c2c in 2015

· Gearing is lower than in the same period last year and we remain on target to generate £100 million of free cash flow in 2015

· Strong financial performance in UK Bus, supported by passenger demand and cost control

· Encouraging start to the new c2c franchise ahead of the bid plan, with passenger volume growth of 4% and revenue growth of 10% boosted by good growth in peak and off-peak travel

· Revenue management in Spain delivering growth of 4% in revenue and 7% in passenger volume on actively managed routes - further roll out ongoing

· Strong growth in Morocco with revenue up 17%, driven by the scaling-up of operations in Tangier

· Continued strong contract retention in North America School Bus at 99% coupled with an average price increase of 5% in the current bid season, offsetting wage pressures

· New contract wins in UK Coach to operate from Stansted Airport and with British Airways to provide transport services for passengers and crew across the UK

· 1 million passenger journeys delivered in Bahrain since the successful mobilisation of our bus service operations in February

StockMarketWire.com
National Express has hiked its H1 pretax profit to £54.2m, from £23.4m. Group revenue was up 2.2% to £960.2m, from £939.5m. It proposed an interim dividend of 3.685p a share, up 10%on the year.

"The Group has made strong progress in the first half of the year with results in line with expectations and both revenue and profit up year-on-year," it said in a statement.

"We have achieved further significant new contract wins and we remain on target to generate £100 million of free cash for the full year. Our strong operational and financial position means we are both able to invest in growth and increase our interim dividend payment by 10%."

Financial highlights include:

· Revenue growth in every division in constant currency; Group revenue up 2.2% year-on-year to £960.2 million (2014: £939.5m).

· A 6% increase in like-for-like Group operating profit, after excluding rail and Middle East bid costs and at constant currency; Group normalised operating profit rose by 19%; statutory profit after tax increased by 117%.

· Return on capital employed increased to 11.9% (31 Dec 2014: 10.7%); excluding rail and Middle East bid costs return on capital employed has improved to 12.8% (31 Dec 2014: 12.4%).

· On target to generate £100m of free cash for the year.

· A proposed interim dividend of 3.685 pence, up 10% year-on-year (2014: 3.35 pence).

Consistent delivery against our strategy of operational excellence, driving strong returns and developing new business opportunities:
· Excellent start to the new c2c franchise with revenue growth of 10%, ahead of bid plan.

· Successful bid season in North America School Bus with an average price increase of 2.8% across the entire portfolio of contracts. Two small acquisitions were made at the end of the period and a new transit contract won.

· Further success in German rail with the awarding of two contracts for Rhine Ruhr Express services; contracted revenues secured now worth €2.6 billion.

· Successful mobilisation of our bus service operations in Bahrain, our first entry into the Middle East and opening further opportunities in the region including a joint bid already submitted to run bus operations in Makkah, Saudi Arabia.

· Continued progress in Spain of our revenue management programme on intercity routes competing with rail, with passengers up 7% and revenue increasing 4% on these flows. We have also won a fourth Moroccan bus contract.

· Shortlisted for the East Anglia rail franchise, which is due to be awarded in mid-2016, and commence in autumn 2016.

· We welcome the West Midlands ITA's decision to establish a new 'Bus Alliance' to build on our award-winning partnership

StockMarketWire.com
National Express said it has continued its strong progress in the period 1 July to Sept. 30. Revenue has grown year on year in every division on a constant currency basis over this important core summer period.

"Our focus on operational excellence continues to open new market opportunities, deliver strong cash flows and secure widespread external recognition for us as the leader in the markets we serve," the company said in a statement.

"Year to date, like-for-like Group operating profit is 6% higher after excluding rail and Middle East bid costs on a constant currency basis and up 16% on a reported basis.

"Our businesses have performed well in the period and as we enter the final quarter, we remain on course to deliver our cash flow target for the year and are confident of delivering good-quality growth for 2015 as a whole."

Highlights:

· Group revenue up 3% on a constant currency basis with revenue up in every division.

· Like-for-like Group operating profit up 7% in the period, after excluding rail and Middle East bid costs and at constant currency.

· Continued excellent performance in c2c ahead of bid plan's forecasts, with 10% growth in revenue and 5% passenger growth year to date.

· Record passenger numbers, the on-going successful roll out of our Revenue Management System and continued strong growth in Morocco have delivered increased revenues of nearly 3.5% on a constant currency basis in our Spanish division.

· Revenue growth in North America of 3% excluding targeted exited contracts, resulting in further progress on our margin improvement strategy.

· Commercial revenue growth of 2% in UK Bus and approval for a five year 'Bus Alliance' by the West Midlands ITA, succeeding our existing partnership.

· Strong revenue growth of 3.5% in our core UK Coach business, including a record for July passenger numbers.

StockMarketWire.com
National Express Group has announced that its Spanish business, ALSA, has had the award of a contract under the Spanish Government's Imserso pensioner holiday scheme confirmed.

ALSA's contract award has been confirmed for an initial two years, with the option of a two year extension. Across the four years ALSA will obtain more than 80 million Euro in revenue. Ticket sales have already opened and the first journeys will begin on the 12th December. The Company added that the contract will be profitable from the start.

The Imserso pensioner holiday scheme is a Government programme that supports the Spanish tourist industry outside of the holiday season by providing subsidised trips for pensioners. The consortium ALSA is part of has won the contract for Spanish pensioners to travel to the Balearic and Canary islands.

Specifically, ALSA will operate the passenger transfers to and from Spanish Airports, between the Balearic and Canary island airports and resorts and tourist tours on the islands. ALSA will also provide some catering services and expects to carry more than 270,000 passengers a year.

Dean Finch, National Express Group Chief Executive, said: "This is an important contract win for ALSA and is profitable from day one. Imserso is a well-known initiative for the Spanish tourist industry and we are hopeful that there could be the opportunity to expand our work further. This award builds on the important progress ALSA has made this year, including a fourth new contract in Morocco and a record number of passengers carried over the Summer months. We look forward to delivering these Spanish holidaymakers with high quality comfort and service."

StockMarketWire.com
National Express Group has been awarded the Nuremberg S-Bahn contract. The decision comes after Sunday's successful launch of National Express' first German services - two contracts to run services on the Rhine Munster Express lines.

In addition, National Express is experiencing positive trading in the run-up to Christmas with three businesses, UK Coach, c2c and ALSA all recording record pre-Christmas passenger demand.

"We are delighted with the decision. We look forward to providing the people of Nuremberg with a high quality service in the coming years and are pleased to be able to now focus on putting our plans into practice," said the company.

"We have now secured €4 billion of revenues in German rail and have a further €4 billion in our active pipeline of future bids."

StockMarketWire.com
National Express has hiked its FY statutory pretax profit to GBP109.1m, from GBP60.6m. This was accompanied with a 10% rise in FY proposed dividend to 11.33p, from 10.3p. Group revenue was up 2.8% to GBP1.92bn, from GBP1.87bn.

"With revenues, profits and margins up in every division and a growing dividend underpinned by a strong and sustainable free cash flow, the Group enters 2016 in a good position," the company said in a statement.

"Our strategic focus on consistently delivering operational excellence to drive returns and generate new business opportunities has continued to secure good growth and market expansion in our existing businesses.

"At the same time, our successful entry into new markets has also demonstrated the significant future growth opportunities for the Group which complement the progress made in our established markets."

Barclays Capital today reaffirms its overweight investment rating on National Express Group PLC (LON:NEX) and raised its price target to 385p (from 373p).

StockMarketWire.com
National Express has made a strong start to the year and remains on target to deliver its profit expectation and free cash flow and leverage targets for the year.

Total revenue was up 11% in the period Jan. 1 to April 30 on a constant currency basis, including the benefit from acquisitions and the start of German rail operations in December 2015.

After adjusting for these new operations, revenue was up 4% on an underlying basis. All divisions achieved an increase in revenue, supported by total underlying passenger growth across the Group of 3%.

HIGHLIGHTS:
* Group profit before tax is up year-on-year on a constant currency basis, despite higher bid costs and a significant increase in the c2c franchise premium.

* UK Bus had commercial revenue growth of 3%, with passenger volumes broadly flat. These results demonstrate that our partnership-based strategy continues to yield results.

* 4% underlying revenue growth in UK Coach, which was achieved despite a notable reduction in passenger numbers immediately following the terrorist attacks in Brussels in late March. Despite this, passenger volumes grew by 6% in the period. We expect revenue growth to recover from this weak April through to the half year, based on improvements starting to be seen in advance bookings.

* 7% like-for-like growth in passenger journeys at c2c. Following a surge in demand after the introduction of a new timetable in December 2015, agreement has been reached with the Department for Transport to bring 24 carriages into service later this year, three years ahead of schedule and at no net incremental cost to the Group.

* Passenger growth of 5% and revenue growth of 3% in Spain in the period, driven by further progress on Revenue Management as well as new contract wins and the acquisition of Herranz in December 2015.

* Morocco saw more than 50 million passenger journeys during the period, a growth of 11% year-on-year. Our operations in all four cities grew passengers and revenue and we now carry more passengers in Morocco than Spain.

* The North American School Bus bid season is well-progressed and has continued our very high retention rates, with 96% of contracts retained to-date. Where contracts have been renegotiated or renewed we have secured an average rate increase of 5%. This has resulted in an average increase across the entire portfolio of more than 3%. North America has had the best start to the year it has ever enjoyed, in part benefiting from less weather disruption than previous years.

* Continued growth in Transit, including securing a three year extension and $2 million of additional revenue from new routes on the largest contract acquired as part of the Trans Express purchase in June 2015.

* Successful mobilisation of German Rail operations: more than six million passengers carried already in 2016, in-line with expectations; punctuality and services operated already ahead of previous operator's performance with a steady improvement over the period. Consequently we expect our German rail operations to break even in the current year.

* Celebrated first full year of operations in Bahrain, where we now carry more than one million passengers on our buses every month.

StockMarketWire.com
National Express said it is on course to at least deliver its targets for profit, cash flow and gearing for the year.

"The Group has continued to make strong progress in the period," it said in a statement.

"Both revenue and profit are up year-on-year in constant currency, with operating profit up 9% in the third quarter driven by particularly strong performances in our overseas businesses, through both organic growth and the benefit of acquisitions.

"Year to date, like-for-like Group operating profit is 5% higher on a constant currency basis and up 12% on a reported basis, boosted by foreign currency movements on overseas earnings and after a significant increase in the c2c franchise premium."

CEO Dean Finch commented:
"With two thirds of our earnings generated outside of the UK this geographic diversity, combined with a focus on operational excellence and the deployment of technology, continues to deliver good growth, a strong cash flow and opens new market opportunities.

"We will stick to our fundamental principles of safe and punctual operations at affordable prices with particular emphasis on controlling costs to generate cash and keep fares low.

"The combination of our relatively resilient UK performance together with the strong growth we are seeing from our international operations enables us to selectively invest in growth opportunities subject to our strict financial criteria and continue to deliver attractive and sustainable returns to shareholders."

Looking for 400p here.

StockMarketWire.com
National Express Group has reached an in-principle agreement for Trenitalia, the passenger rail transportation company part of FS Italiane Group, to acquire the c2c franchise.

Completion of the acquisition is conditional upon final consent from the Department for Transport and is expected to occur within the next three to four weeks.

The total consideration is expected to be in the region of £70 million, resulting in a small net profit for National Express.

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