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Emerging markets insulate telecoms sector
15 April 2009 - Written by: Malar Velaigam
Mature telecommunications markets such as the US and UK have slowed in the downturn, leaving telecoms solutions providers to rely on consumer and infrastructure-led growth in emerging markets for insulation. And with 3G finally being rolled out in China this year, and other emerging regions such as Brazil and India still in the implementation phase, demand for investment in infrastructure and new devices in these regions could be sustained.
Emerging economies are still spending on telecoms infrastructure with consumers in some markets, such as India, bypassing traditional fixed line phones and moving directly to wireless networks.
So companies such as billing and operating systems provider Intec Telecom Systems continue to report robust performance, despite the difficult economic climate. Intec, which has operations in Asia Pacific and Central and Latin America, revealed that the six months to March had been the group's "strongest ever first half", with sales expected to be at least 38 per cent higher than last year's 61.3m. And, with three-quarters of revenues collected in US dollars, and most costs incurred in local currencies, favourable currency movements are helping to offset softer demand in Europe and North America.
Traffic control specialist BATM Advanced Communications ( BVC ) and wireless testing group Spirent Communications ( SPT ) are benefiting from similar trends. With almost a third of 2008 orders stemming from Asia and 54 per cent of sales generated in the US, Spirent will gain from currency movements. Meanwhile, BATM's full-year results attributed its 39 per cent sales growth to additional demand from new territories.
But while emerging markets are supporting these telco service providers, mature markets should not be written off. Growing internet usage and demand for more bandwidth should continue to provide sales growth for the sector.
IC VIEW:
Emerging markets infrastructure investment and a growing appetite for new technology around the world have made telecoms a defensive sector in the recession. Shares in Intec Telecoms have risen by 62 per cent since to 47p our buy recommendation (29p, 1 December 2008) and remain a buy. Shares in BATM have fallen 42 per cent since our buy advice (52p, 22 September 2008), but with $53m (36m) cash in the bank and a forward PE of five, the shares are still a buy at 30p. Spirent is fairly priced at 54p.
http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/Companies/ByEvent/TradingNews/Inbrief/article/20090415/da2ed5b4-29a4-11de-8da9-00144f2af8e8/Will-emerging-markets-insulate-telco-service-providers.jsp
FOXBORO, Mass.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Telco Systems, a BATM Company (LSE: BVC - News) has announced the expansion of their Fiber-to-the-Home (FTTH) offerings with the introduction of the EdgeGate 242W, an indoor wireless-enabled active Ethernet residential gateway, and an enhanced EdgeGate 483 outdoor CPE gateway with dual 1Gigabit uplinks.
The EdgeGate 242W offers service providers the ability to deliver full triple play services while solving the home owners problem of in-home wiring by using wireless home networking. As a single box solution, the EdgeGate 242W also offers enhanced TV options with support for both IPTV and RF video, advanced routing capabilities and enhanced telephony features like three-way calling, call forward and hold, distinctive ring, and T.38 support for fax over IP.
A built-in bridge and router enable customers to connect their home network either through one of four 10/100Base-T LAN ports or the wireless 802.11b/g access point. Analog phone sets can be connected to one of two FXS POTS ports to provide VoIP using SIP signaling protocol. The EdgeGate 242W supports up to 100Mbps downstream and 100Mbps upstream over bi-directional fixed fiber ports.
Designed for indoor installations, the products fiber optics cable management module can be installed prior to activation of the service, and the active components can be connected when the service is signed. Service activation is completed easily by the end user with no need to send a technician to the customers house.
The EdgeGate 483D is an enhancement to the existing outdoor EdgeGate 483 family which adds dual 1Gigabit fiber uplinks to support ring and chain topologies of multiple units. The EdgeGate 483D offers eight Ethernet ports to support both data and video services for computers and TVs, and two analog voice ports which can connect to two separate telephone lines which are converted to VoIP. This EdgeGate has an unique design that future-proofs the users access connection by supporting either 100Mbps or 1Gbps dual uplinks in the same product, thus allowing the service provider to start deployment with 100M network and upgrade to 1Gigabit without replacing the CPE. The outdoor design provides separate technician access areas from subscriber access areas as well as enhanced cable management.
As Point-to-Point (P2P) Active Ethernet CPE gateways, both products enable providers to offer dedicated bandwidth based on the subscribers individual requirements and offer differential services for residential and business customers in the same area. Active Ethernet also supports a pay-as-you-grow philosophy by allowing new subscribers to be added within a 100km service area at minimal cost.
The Telco Systems EdgeGate product family is part of the Companys field-proven RUS approved Active Ethernet solutions that include fiber aggregation switches to support up to 10Gigabits in a resilient ring or mesh topology in the metro network. These Carrier Ethernet aggregation switches and the field-proven EdgeGate CPE devices are the building blocks to create a complete feature-rich and cost-effective FTTH solution. As standards-based solutions, they create a flexible network topology which is not single-vendor dependent.
We are pleased to offer a complete solution that can be implemented into a customers current network easily, provides higher bandwidth, and opens the door for a wider array of services, stated Irit Gillath, vice president of product line management at Telco Systems. We are already seeing deployment of the EdgeGate 242W in Europe and many US customers who deploy the current EdgeGate 483 are eager to implement resiliency with the new dual uplink option.
Both new EdgeGate products will be available within 60 days.
Price and moving averages
Price and moving averages has closed below its Short term moving average. Short term moving average is currently above mid-term; AND above long term moving averages. From the relationship between price and moving averages; we can see that: This stock is NEUTRAL in short-term; and BULLISH in mid-long term.
Bollinger Bands
BVC.L has closed above bottom band by 9.2%. Bollinger Bands are 42.6% narrower than normal. The narrow width of the bands suggests low volatility as compared to BVC.L's normal range. The bands have been in this narrow range for 5 bars. This is a sign that the market may be about to initiate a new trend.
BVC.LS - BATM ADVANCED COMM (LSE)
Date | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | Volume | % Change |
05/13/09 | 30.7500 | 33.0000 | 30.7500 | 31.5000 | +0.7500 | 887719 | +2.44% |
Composite Indicator | ||||||||||||
Trend Spotter TM | Hold | |||||||||||
Short Term Indicators | ||||||||||||
7 Day Average Directional Indicator | Sell | |||||||||||
10 - 8 Day Moving Average Hilo Channel | Sell | |||||||||||
20 Day Moving Average vs Price | Sell | |||||||||||
20 - 50 Day MACD Oscillator | Buy | |||||||||||
20 Day Bollinger Bands | Hold | |||||||||||
Short Term Indicators Average: | 40% - Sell | |||||||||||
20-Day Average Volume - 726211 | ||||||||||||
Medium Term Indicators | ||||||||||||
40 Day Commodity Channel Index | Hold | |||||||||||
50 Day Moving Average vs Price | Buy | |||||||||||
20 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator | Buy | |||||||||||
50 Day Parabolic Time/Price | Sell | |||||||||||
Medium Term Indicators Average: | 25% - Buy | |||||||||||
50-Day Average Volume - 674380 | ||||||||||||
Long Term Indicators | ||||||||||||
60 Day Commodity Channel Index | Hold | |||||||||||
100 Day Moving Average vs Price | Buy | |||||||||||
50 - 100 Day MACD Oscillator | Buy | |||||||||||
Long Term Indicators Average: | 67% - Buy | |||||||||||
100-Day Average Volume - 793063 | ||||||||||||
Overall Average: | 8% - Buy | |||||||||||
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It has no UK peer; competes with global giants; has an underlying P/E of around 5x compared to c30x of the UK tech sector and its US competitors; it has millions in the bank; it occupies a lucrative "niche within a niche" and competition between its telecom clients is hotting-up, pointing to increase sales if all this good news is true why doesn't everyone have a piece?
BATM Advanced Communications which has a 124.3m market cap and, despite its shares rallying 41 per cent since hitting a 24p low at the end of Februrary, is still down 32 per cent over the year.
The company sits in the mid-range of the FTSE Small Cap index and, for its size has a disproportionate level of analysts following it and funds that hold it within their top 10 holdings. History could explain some of interest and also the wariness of investors: back in September 2000 BATM shares hit a peak of 765p.
Investegate spoke to Philip Rodrigs, manager of the Investec UK Smaller Companies fund and Arun George, analyst at Noble, who both believe the BATM story.
They, along with the other three analysts who cover BATM, and presumably managers Gartmore and JO Hambro who hold 10 per cent and five per cent stakes respectively, are all singing from the same hymn sheet this is a long-term winner. Meanwhile BATMs chief executive holds a 23 per cent stake.
Funds with BATM in their top ten holdings include:
Gartmore Growth Opportunities has 3.1 per cent of its assets invested in BATM making this its third largest holding.
CF Techinvest Technology has 2.86 of its assets invested in BATM, its fourth largest holding.
Gartmore UK & Irish Smaller Companies has 3.9 per cent of its assets invested in BATM making the company its second largest holding.
Investec UK Smaller Companies has 2.3 per cent of its assets invested in BATM making this its second largest holding.
According to its most recent factsheet, from September 2008, FF&P Smaller Cap UK Equity has 4.79 per cent of its assets invested in BATM and this was its sixth largest holding.
The BATM story is that it is well placed to help telecom giants upgrade their networks to Ethernet, the computer network system used in most offices.
One of the problems faced by the company's management, according to Arun George, is getting the message across to more investors.
Arun George says: "In terms of strong institutional backing it is quite encouraging that JO Hambro and Gartmore have large positions. I have a view that this company will be a long-term winner and they seem to share it.
"Most investors dont understand this company that well. I appreciate it is quite hard getting to grips with this company partly as management struggle to present the more sophisticated aspects of the business in an investor-friendly language."
A recent sales note from Noble outlines the drivers for telecom companies to upgrade their networks: What is driving this growth? Three things: 1) Video, watching You Tube, 2) IPTV, watching Coronation Street, and 3) VOIP, phoning your mates.
One anecdote: at the start of 2008, YouTube traffic in the US equalled the amount of monthly traffic crossing the entire US Internet backbone in 2000. As 2008 draws to a close, YouTube along with Hulu generate more than 2x the amount of traffic crossing the US Internet backbone in 2000.
George said that he stood by his note of 23 March Noble upgraded to Positive from Negative with a 37p target price saying: With strong fundamentals, BATM is well positioned to benefit from the structural shift of telecom infrastructure to Ethernet. Whilst FY09 is expected to be a tough year, BATMs share price already factors in overly bearish scenarios.
Philip Rodrigs said that Telecoms operators were swapping to Ethernet in order to provide their customers with better services. While he noted that the credit crunch