.

borgo posts on III.

Here is the long awaited post. Looks like good oil, 60M of something and a surprise (good one).

Nice, should be a very blue week next week if borgo22 hits in on the head.



Here you go; once and once only. No daily posts, no opinions, no updates, no interpretations, no rattling on about confidence in this drill !

The message below obviously needs to be cryptic to protect the innocent .

I had a dream where I went out to Sharkeys Bar. No , not the one in Montrose with the world beer drinking competition but the one in an Asian capital city. Anyhow, I walked into Sharkeys, a good bar with lots of pretty girls who for a small sum think you are the most handsome and wittiest man in the world ! To my surprise I saw my local barman; the conversation went like this :

Barman : Hi Borgo, what you doing here ? Long way from the Falklands ( with much laughter ).

Borgo : Havent seen you since your news on 14/10-3. You got that one wrong. You owe me big style. My new DB9 is on hold, you rascal. My virtual mateys seem to be leaving me since 14/10-3 as well, more so in the last few days.

Barman : The information I gave you was right. Remember I only pass on to you what one legged Pete sees and hears. You done the interpretation and concluded the well was a gusher.

Borgo : OK matey, what you got for me on the current well ?

Barman : Lets have a drink and talk. I am hearing talk of Essex Day and Armada Day.

Borgo : OK, give me a bottle of the blue stuff you normally serve in our local and is the talk of the Victory.

Barman : Well youre lucky. I havent seen that stuff since May last year but a new, slightly larger bottle just arrived.

Borgo : Good stuff this. Looks very like what we experienced last May. You got another blue bottle ?

Barman : Not yet but I am expecting two more very soon. One I expect to be the same as the May 2010 stuff, however, the other one is different. It will be a bit of a surprise but I think you will like it. It could have an extra kick and really is a bit of a bonus. By the way, the first blue bottle looked very good on the long wood display cabinet.

Borgo : Thanks Barman. I am feeling a bit tipsy. Maybe better if I introduce myself to one of these nice girls now. I think my luck just might be in.

Barman : Bit like Rockhopper, Borgo, you dont need luck right now. Pay your money and have the time of your life ! Can I recommend a take out for you. Perhaps a nice bottle of Chateau Rothcild.

Borgo : No, I have gone off that. Its missing something. Maybe an h ( with much laughter ).

Barman : OK Borgo. Try this one. This is the best we have, its a vintage from the 60s. Remember that number , you might see it somewhere else in the next week or so.

Borgo : Thanks Barman, see you next time. Maybe in about 30 to 40 days time to talk about a girl whose name starts with the letter N.

Barman : See you Borgo. By the way, tell RRM 8 to put some money back it. Hell regret it for the rest of his life if he stays out.

Borgo : See you Barman. RRM 8 can make his own mind up, as can all of my virtual mateys ! They all know nothings guaranteed, but, as I used to say, I am very confident in this drill !!

By borgo22

Sea Lion Main/Lower with oil as per 14-10/2 - 60M total net pay.

Deeper Fan underneath SLM/SLL with gas (will be a nice bonus if its true) and help with recovery and lowering costs of recovery.

Thats what I reckon from borgo's comments.

Sorry the delay, latest stock on loan figures point to 800K volume shorts added yesterday (wonder how many more sold today).

Which means a big chunk of yesterdays volume was shorters selling stock.

Gets exciting now as those positions have to be closed if good news comes out.



.

So its now 1.3m stock has been shorted since 2nd March.

And people wonder why the price is falling.

Two and a half weeks into the drilling now, might be encountering hydrocarbons now......wish they'd give a depth update....

Like RKH, GKP the shorting started on 2nd March.

Both are being manipulated by someone/entity hoping to scare and panic people into selling.

GKP below :




RKH below :

They are both natural targets for shorters as they both rose well in 2010 and its getting near tax year end, so both should see plenty of liquidity.

However, I would have thought GKP was the prime candidate, more hot money in it and more people margined to their eyeballs.

RKH already had a good shake out of hot money before the 2nd of March.

Anyway, it matters not, what matters is real news. And it should be here next week.

Of this thread (original post and all replies)

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3ARKH.L&it=le&action=detail&id=7956559

.

sorry Mr P, but your post 231 is a load of bollocks - whistling in the wind if you want a politer version ...... short positions are mostly taken by people who think the price will fall, and quite dramatically at that and nothing whatsoever to do with attempted price manipulation

RKH specifically is pretty scary at the moment, not so much due to the lask of news, but that earlier news in the area has been decidedly less than positive ...... however, if one assumes that the RKH management was not previously deliberately misleading everyone, it would be stretching likelihood to assume that the preliminary find at Sealion was a one-off freak

i confess i have forgotten what news is next scheduled and, more importantly, if that is truly expected to throw greater light on Sealion's potential

if (much) more oil is indeed indicated, then i also do not buy into the gloommongers who beat their breasts about the cost of extraction and similar issues.

Some good discussion in the wee hours on III over the Oil/Water Contact point. To summarize and of course this may all be totally incorrect !!

Opinion is :

If OWC found at 2488 metres then say 90MMBO

If OWC found at 2515 metres then say 170MMBO

If no OWC found then yippee do and think 500MMBO.


To put that into price perspective with 90p a share in cash and allowing say 100p for other licenses/leads/prospects (say 1.90 total)


90MMBO x 8.5US$ = 1.85 + 1.90 = 3.75 a share.

170MMBO x 8.5 US$ = 3.50 + 1.90 = 5.40 a share.

500MMBO x 8.5US$ = 10.29 + 1.90 = 12.19 a share.


And if of course this well is all water as per what Gramacho is saying, then a drop down below but to settle at perhaps 1.50 later on is very possible given the cash and other prospects. Quite a bold call by Gramacho to say OWC at 2480M and therefore this whole drill will be water and nothing else. Could be a case of being hero or zero on this call.

So its quite an important well really, but that is always the case with appraisal.

If; if; if. If Rudyard Kipling was still alive, no doubt he would update his poem in honour of RKH.

Another borgo post on III :

Feeling a bit tired this morning. Dreamt I was in Sharkeys last night. I couldnt speak to my regular Barman. I was told he was out buying supplies, including more of the 60s vintage wine, for a big party Sharkeys are organizing. The replacement barman wasnt too sure of the date of the party but said he expected it to be next weekend or very early the following week.

One legged Petes brother, Rob, was there. He was playing pool with a local girl who didnt speak much English. I hooked up with him and we shot three games of pool, I won the first two games; in the first game one legged Petes brother left a 6 ball on the table and in the second game he left a 2 ball on the table. The third game wasnt finished as we got a bit distracted by the girls who were sitting on a long wooden display cabinet. The cabinet looked good, as did the girls.

After the pool I watched an old episode of Lost. It was the first show of the sixth series. The one where there are two possible outcome options. Lots of people are confused on which option is real, but the real option is obvious if you are a fan.

Lots of good music playing. Mainly sixties stuff again. The Beatles were played a lot, especially Here comes the sun. I felt the lyrics of this song were important although it might just have been the alcohol kicking in.

Anyhow, back in the real world this morning, when I turned on my laptop, I see Rockhopper are a few pence down. Cant care much about this as the end game is close and the s/p will soon be nowhere near to its current level.

16022030410

So is that :

1st 60M
2nd 20M
3rd ongoing but LWD looks good.

Gross or net pay basis that would exceed present P50 levels of 170MMBO, so looks rather good.

This thread is losing the plot - big time!

If there is oil there : they must be into some of it perhaps by now, 23 days of drilling so far out of 38......an update might be on the cards very soon....

If they do go ahead and sidetrack, to find more oil, look for an OWC and also pass the time until April when flow testing can begin, which way will they sidetrack ?

Northerly ?

Westwards ?


What are peoples thoughts on a sidetrack and its target ?

RNS Number : 8809C

Rockhopper Exploration plc

14 March 2011

For immediate release: 14 March 2011

Rockhopper Exploration plc

("Rockhopper" or the "Company")

Additional Drilling Slots

&

Seismic Programme Update

Rockhopper Exploration plc (AIM: RKH), the North Falkland Basin oil and gas exploration company, announces that it has entered into an assignment agreement to secure three firm additional well slots on the Ocean Guardian drilling rig. Rockhopper intends to utilise these three well slots after Desire Petroleum plc completes drilling operations on its next well, which follows the appraisal well currently being drilled by Rockhopper.

Rockhopper further announces that the acquisition of new 3D seismic data to the south of the Sea Lion discovery well, on licence PL032, has been completed and the Company intends to fast track the processing of this data. It is anticipated that the resulting processed data will become available to the Company during July 2011. The wider seismic acquisition programme, over areas of licences PL024, PL032 and PL033 and adjacent areas, is ongoing.

Sam Moody, Chief Executive of Rockhopper, commented,

"The additional rig slots will see Rockhopper continuing an exciting and considerable work programme in the North Falkland Basin this year. Our understanding of the basin has advanced following the Sea Lion discovery, and will be further enhanced by our current appraisal operations, together with new seismic data. This information will be valuable in identifying our forward drilling programme."

Short position as of Friday close is :

1.5m stock on loan (eg short).

About 100K more stock was shorted on Friday.

Will be interesting to see if that flatlines today with no increase when todays figures come out tomorrow.

Plan should be imo :

DES drill Ninky
RKH drill appraisal 2 - Westerly ?
RKH drill appraisal 3 - Southerly ?
DES/ARG raise money July/August
RKH drill exploration ? or another appraisal ?
DES/ARG/RKH all together sign a new rig contract for the next leg, sharing costs.

I guess some of the shorters are now buying back and trying to close out.