Inflationary policies in the U.S. and China ought to stoke demand
NEWPORT BEACH, Calif. (Trader Planet) — Around this time last year I wrote “Three stocks with the most turnaround potential in 2016,” laying out my theses for beaten-down companies that would outperform the benchmark S&P 500 Index SPX, -0.18% in the subsequent 12 months.
The three stocks I discussed were: Coach COH, -2.86% Urban Outfitters URBN, -2.11% and Stillwater Mining SWC, -2.81% They’re up 21%, 42% and 99%, respectively, so far this year.
Every day I run a screen to find beleaguered stocks that I believe could outperform the market over the next 12 months. My own 20 years of trading experience tells me that buying a stock whose price has been falling is akin to “catching a falling knife,” as momentum tends to be a consistent factor that has outperformed value-based and passive strategies.
Moreover, the empirical evidence shows that negative price momentum in stocks has more persistence than positive momentum. This means a short-selling strategy based on shorting stocks that have gone down the most (hedged with a long position in the S&P 500) tend to outperform a (hedged) strategy focused on buying stocks that have gone up the most.
Such momentum biases, however, tend to last for only 12 months or so, as the empirical evidence also shows the existence of a reversal effect after three to five years. This means one could outperform the market by buying beaten-down stocks that have consistently underperformed the market over the past three to five years.
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