.

As the result is now very very near its worth going through the data and coming up with a potential "most likely" result.

From the data of the DSDP wells, Toroa well, FOGL's concerns on lateral seal, Noble's concerns over no 3D etc... you can come up with the following as a most likely result.


Good top seal encountered, good sandstone encountered, traces of oil however lateral seal failure and no big accumulation at this location.


For me that would be the "most likely" result, with positives of good reservoir sandstone being found and the first confirmations that the Aptian source rock has generated oil, but the negative of no oil accumulation at this located due to lateral seal failure (the oil has migrated elsewhere).

That would be a good result for FOGL if oil generation is confirmed, albeit a big let down none has been left here at this Scotia location due to sideways seal failing. It would allow Noble to take over the license confident oil has been generated and is around there somewhere, and allowing them to do the 3D work and come back with FOGL and Edison to drill again once the 3D is done and processed. FOGL have done well with the farmouts and conserving huge amounts of cash, because if the most likely result is the actual result then they are still in a good position, cashed up and able to drill plenty more wells with no dilution.

You have to take your hats off to the FOGL board for their farmouts and strategy, done their very best in protecting shareholders value whilst allowing them to be exposed to major upside. Even if the "most likely" result comes in then FOGL have over 40p a share cash to move forward with.


Whilst everyone wishes for a super oil strike of net pay and everyone fears a complete duster - its quite possible the median type result will come out, IMO.

Just my thoughts, I do not have access to the well results, just a little speculation on my part.

Personally I would love the last stock I write about in detail on various internet boards to be an oil strike (taking a rest from now on from all the bickering and childish behavior of the internet boards) , but personally I feel the "most likely" is probably more what should be expected at best.

is this 34 posts out of 46 that i now espy?

do i read almost within the the same paragraph the phrases "most likely", "speculation" and "expected at best"? ..... someone should have been an archetype slippery politician

cynic, a bad result here is to be expected, this is frontier wildcat exploration. Not one person on this thread has said anything other than its high risk.

Thats the difference cynic........ not one of the posts is a ramping post.

Always high risk is noted and talked about, when referring to FOGL. If only the GKP ramping muppets could do similar instead of talking about 10 pounds and 20 pounds takeovers whilst the share price collapses.

None of that nonsense on here.

i merely commented on the fact that your "hardly ever posting on it" does not remotely stand up to scrutiny

i was also smiling wrily at the juxtaposition of all the colours of the rainbow in your previous post, and suddenly "a bad result here is to be expected" is now also slung in to season the proceedings even more and to ebnsure that your opinion has covered every single possibility within just a few minutes..... as i said, worthy of the slipperiest politician (are you related to lloyd george?)

cynic, but how many of those posts are discussing FOGL - and how many are just in reply to others comments, or general oil or Falkland related news............

i have no idea and care not one jot or iota, though your turning and squirming is wondrous to behold

No turning or squirming, this is all in your imagination.

I have said all along high risk.

"i never said that", said Slippery Sam, who had clearly covered all the bases within just the previous hour

At least someone has the faith!

Westmount Energy switch its portfolio

19 November 2012 | 12:42pm

StockMarketWire.com - Operating losses at Westmount Energy, an investment company, for the year ended June 30 2102 were £339,000.

In the previous year it had made a loss of £3.27m.

The company says it has been identifying and facilitating the development of energy assets and during the year has made a number of changes to its existing portfolio of holdings.

It has reduced its holdings in Desire Petroleum and Sterling Energy Plc whose share price performances have been disappointing and added two small holdings, Falkland Oil & Gas and Pancontinental Oil & Gas in the exploration field.

Both have drilled one well this year, and have additional wells being drilled now and in 2013 respectively.



At 12:42pm: [LON:WTE] Westmount Energy share price was 0p at 25.5p



Story provided by StockMarketWire.com

Well cynic, you'll be pleased to know I am now taking a long break from the bulletin boards........ so you'll have to find someone else new to pick fights with.

Adios and have fun (and do not lose too much on Turdistan stocks !!)

stick your neck out as often and as far as you do, and you should expect to get whacked on the chin regularly

good rise so far today. Can't see any news.

Crew change yesterday......Who knows what is being said?

So we're waiting for the rumour from the roustabout;)

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-11-21/falkland-oil-rises-on-speculation-scotia-well-to-yield-discovery

Bloomberg News


Falkland Oil Rises on Speculation Scotia Well to Yield Discovery
By Brian Swint on November 21, 2012


Falkland Oil & Gas Ltd. (FOGL), the explorer focused on the namesake South Atlantic islands, surged in London on speculation that drilling at its Scotia well will lead to a discovery.
The shares rose as much as 21 percent, the most since Sept. 12, and traded up 19 percent as of 12:21 p.m. in London.
Falkland Oil and its partners Noble Energy Inc. (NBL) and Edison SpA are targeting about 1 billion barrels of oil at the Scotia well. The company made the second gas discovery this year at its Loligo well after Borders & Southern Petroleum Plc (BOR) said in July that it found gas, including some liquids, south of the islands Margaret Thatcher went to war to keep British in 1982.
“They’re close to the target depth on Scotia,” said Laura Loppacher, an analyst at Jefferies International Ltd. in London. “What these kinds of stocks do best is speculation, and we may get results shortly.”
Rockhopper Exploration Plc (RKH) found a potentially commercial oil discovery north of the archipelago two years ago.
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Swint in London at bswint@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Will Kennedy at wkennedy3@bloomberg.net

RNS issued by FOGL on 7th november stated drilling would take a further 4-6 weeks so what is this analyst at Jeffries up to,not ramping by any chance?

Finishing the day with over 4 times the usual volume and 50% retracement of the day high

Gas chaps, no major oil accumulations, imo.

As I am taking a long well earned break from all the bickering and childish ways of the bulletin boards now, I will be very rarely posting anymore.

I'll still pop up on Twitter and can be contacted on there if anyone wants.

@proselenes

Have fun !


My guess to Scotia.

One thing you will find is that gas stays close to source, oil migrates furthest away from source rock, albeit at a slow rate of progress.

The target at Scotia is sat right above the source rock.

My honest assessment would be, as I said before, that the top seal (was not that questionable) is good, and this has trapped gas in the upper levels.

However, the lateral seal (the sideways seal) has failed (the big risk for Scotia) and the oil has migrated away to somewhere else on the license area (hopefully reservoired).

This would leave an area of gas in the upper section where its managed to get trapped as its above the side seal level, but the main area is devoid of oil accumulation as its leaked away and migrated off somewhere else, maybe leaving some traces.

Always remember oil migrates furthest away from the source rock but very slowly. Gas moves quick but travels not so far.

This would be a decent result for FOGL, proving oil generation and opening the doors to 3D seismic and then more drilling in 2014 with a good chance of success. However short term it would not be the super result that many punters are looking for - who want a major oil discovery and will sell pretty quick a gas discovery RNS as they will not be holding FOGL through thick and thin until next drilling, they will be selling and buying back in 2014.

Just imo - good luck !!

Something is going on......sp rising along with a lot of trades...