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Taylor Wimpey Fundamentals (TW.)

Should be an easy run back to 140p but I'm holding on for more. I'm happy to hold for a couple of years and see it go back in the 170-210 channel and collect the dividends along the road

I agree with CC's last comment. All house builders have been over sold in my opinion. For something in the same line but a little different have a look at INL. Down over 40% - stupid with their Fin Year end being 30 June, with Trading statement soon.

Are you holding too many builders?.

I am. 8-(

Never owned any of them.

Good and bad luck.

I bought back in 2009.

Also, expect to hold for next 6-12months plus.

Dump all of them. The fırst cut ıs the least painful.

There margıns wıll erode very quıckly.

Just my take.

Here we are again a nice trading range chart

Are dividend cuts inevitable for Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey? - By Motley Fool | Mon, 11th July 2016 - 15:29

Absolute dividend policies

Until recently, Taylor Wimpey (LSE:TW) and Persimmon (LSE:PSN) were two dividend growth darlings. Income investors flocked to them because of their rapidly growing dividend yields and low valuation multiples. Right now, everyone is worried that dividend cuts are inevitable.

But there's no real risk of dividend cuts in the short term. Both housebuilders have very strong cash balances and very little debt on their balance sheets. Both companies also have absolute dividend policies based on excess capital on their balance sheets rather than pegged to future earnings.

A dividend cut in the longer term may not be inevitable either. While investor demand in the commercial property sector has taken a very big hit, the residential market is quite different. Long-term fundamentals are better for the residential market because there remains a chronic housing shortage. The number of new houses being built remains well below their pre-recession highs, and that's unlikely to change any time soon.

Housebuilders can also do more to conserve cash and prioritise dividends by reducing investment in land banks, delaying new construction and cutting back on share repurchases. Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon already have very large strategic landbanks, with both companies having around six years of supply at current build rates. What's more, Taylor Wimpey and Persimmon's 20%-plus margins mean they can withstand a modest house price shock and remain very profitable.

For 2016, shares in Taylor Wimpey have a prospective dividend yield of 7.8%, while Persimmon's shares yield 7.3%.

148p +7.10p (+5.04%)

Well ahead once more after the overdone mark down

a very strong order book just now 150 v 100

Having gone well over 150p now the stock is now into the Limbo range 140 - 170p with support at 140p

Closed bargain T+4 @ 150.20

a gain of 37.20p or 32.92 % on 11 working days

my sipp is very grateful for the rally in this one :-)

amazingly high volume today (already 56m+), but suspect it's just a freaky day rather than anything of note

Interim results wed 27th July 2106.

Three bargains in bricks and mortar
By Harriet Mann | Tue, 26th July 2016 - 13:44

For a sector partially demolished by Brexit uncertainty, analysts remain confident a turn in the current cycle will not be anything like as severe as the aftermath of 2008. Downgrades this time reflect just a "modest" 10% fall in volumes and prices.

Given price targets were too optimistic ahead of the EU referendum, one analyst has decided now is a convenient time to bring sky-high expectations more in line with reality, although they still expect 40% upside and blockbuster dividend yields sector-wide.

Despite claiming a downturn would be "moderate", Deutsche Bank has slashed its 2017 cash profit estimates by 50% and pre-tax profit guidance by 60%. This risk to profit should weaken from 2018, as the sector benefits from cost-cutting and cheaper land, although pre-tax profit is still expected to fall 40% and 30% in 2018 and 2019.

"Whether this proves to be a correct assumption or not only time will tell - but it enables us to explore valuation in such a downside scenario and participate in the debate," explains analyst Glynis Johnson.

Deutsche Bank still reckons dividends can be maintained, confident the sector yields an attractive 5.2%. Even with reduced forecasts, Taylor Wimpey (TW.) leads the way with a 9% yield thanks to its special dividend commitment.

"However, for many of those with dividend policies based on P&L pay-out ratios, our forecasts suggest significantly excess cash accumulation, which could provide scope for significant higher returns to shareholders, with Barratt (BDEV) proving a strong example, with net cash in FY 2018 equivalent to a 16% yield," adds Johnson.

Identified as a driver of economic growth, government policy has prioritised housebuilding since 2007, with plans to build one million new homes from 2015-2020 reiterated post- referendum.

This commitment provides serious upside to the sector after decades of chronic undersupply. There's a chance the Help to Buy equity loan scheme could also be increased to 30%, too, which Johnson reckons will provide meaningful support to volumes.

Value opportunities

There is still opportunity to capture value in the sector, however. Collapsing after the referendum 'Leave' result, the housebuilders now trade on a price/net asset value (NAV) ratio of 1.4 times, although there is significant range within the sector - from 1-2.1 times. After downgrades, return on equity is expected to trough at 15% in 2017, indicating a 50% premium to cost of capital.

"We believe this suggests there remains significant value in the sector, particularly for those trading in the lower ranges of the peer group. Our pick in this category is Bovis (BVS)," says Johnson.

The analyst has her eye on the three big housebuilders she thinks offer good scope for return.

Barratt Developments

Reducing their target price by 13%, Johnson's team now reckon Barratt is worth 575p, which offers 40% upside to its current 410p price. It's yielding 7%, too.

Bovis Homes

Suffering a double-digit target price downgrade, Bovis could still be worth 55% more at 1,190p and there's a 5% yield for 2016.

Taylor Wimpey

Now worth 147p, Taylor Wimpey has 48% potential upside with its new 218p target price and offers with a 7.4% prospective yield, which grows to a sector-leading 9.1% in 2017 and 10% in 2018.

http://www.iii.co.uk/articles/341463/three-bargains-bricks-and-mortar

NICE - Today

Canaccord Genuity Buy 153.95 140.00 140.00 Retains

Peel Hunt Hold 153.95 215.00 215.00 Reiterates

Taylor Wimpey keeps building profits - By Harriet Mann | Wed, 27th July 2016 - 14:27

Taylor Wimpey housebuilder profits increase good trading post Brexit earnings More than a month has passed since the UK decided to leave the European Union and, despite the rhetoric of uncertainty, lots of us are still buying Taylor Wimpey (TW.) homes. The group is more profitable than this time last year, its new £450 million dividend scheme is safe, and the share price continues to make a comeback, too.
Despite macro uncertainty, demand for homes and the government's Help to Buy scheme have underpinned the housing market since the referendum. There was a brief blip in the average cancellation rate immediately following the Brexit vote, although this is back in line with low levels, and the wider London market remains robust, says Taylor Wimpey.

"One month on from the EU referendum, current trading remains in line with normal seasonal patterns. Customer interest continues to be high, with a good level of visitors," said chief executive Pete Redfern.

"Whilst it is still too early to assess what the longer-term impact from the referendum result on the housing market may be, we are encouraged by the first month's trading and by continued competitive lending from the mortgage providers as well as the positive commentary from government and policymakers."



Taylor Wimpey built over 6,000 new homes in the six months to 3 July and its order book has swollen to over £2.2 billion, with 90% of its properties for 2016 already sold. Its homes sold for an average £238,000, 5.8% higher than this time last year, driving a 9.1% increase in revenue to £1.5 billion and 12% increase in pre-tax profit to £266.6 million. Earnings per share (EPS) rose 14% to 6.6p.

Taking the total payout to around 10.91p per share this year (£356 million), investors will get a 0.53p interim dividend in October. And, crucially, the company said it remained "fully committed" to the dividend policy announced in May.

Shareholders are promised an enhanced ordinary dividend in 2017, representing 5% of group net assets and at least £150 million each year through the cycle. They'll also get a special dividend of £300 million, or about 9.2p a share, next July.

Tangible net asset value per (TNAV) share rose 7.8% to 88.5p in the half-year to 3 July and net cash jumped by a third to £116.7 million. Return on net operating assets has increased by 2 percentage points to 25.2%.



Taylor Wimpey stuck within a solid trading channel for the 12 months before June's referendum, after which the housebuilder collapsed to a two-year low of 109p. Leaping 5% to 153p Wednesday, the shares have now recovered by 40% and are firmly above the significant 38% Fibonacci retracement level from its pre-referendum high.

In a research note yesterday, Deutsche bank analyst Glynis Johnson slashed price targets across the sector. However, she still thinks Taylor Wimpey will be worth 218p target price and offers a 7.4% prospective yield.

Is the the talk down of the housing since the Brexit is having an impact on the morgage approvals? ........


UK mortgage approvals slip in June

UK mortgage approvals slipped to their lowest level since May in 2015, with just 64,766 approved in June,
from 66,722 in May. The market had expected 65,650 approvals.

Meantime, M4 Money supply climbed to 8% on a 3-month annualised basis.

arguably, though that is an easy excuse
FOXT's lousy figures and comment show a deeper malaise i fear
nevertheless, the country still needs an awful lot more housing and TW (in particular) offers a really good yield

Bought into these this morning..Far to cheap with a very good Divi..