Pretty much all to timescale really.
Spud RNS says 30 days drilling to get to target zone.
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201112230935015773U
....Ntorya-1 will be drilled as a vertical well to a planned total depth of 2026m, using the Caroil-6 rig and is expected to reach the main target in around 30 days from spud...........
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Update RNS says Total Depth (end of drilling) will be late January
http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201101031552848V
........The target interval of the well is approximately 1,800 to 1,900 metres depth. Ntorya-1 is expected to reach total depth in late January 2012.......
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So spud early evening on 22nd Dec.
30 days to target zone (circa 1800 metres) would be 21st Jan.
We had rumour of oil on 23rd Jan - which would tie in to the schedule if you allow for a bit of delay here and there or seismic processing errors on depth. The lack of any denial about the big price rise perhaps indicates something is there on an oily nature (although until wireline is run nothing can be said of an official nature)
So, TD (Total Depth) reach perhaps Thursday or Friday, pull the drill bit out, run wireline - looks fine for a Monday RNS.
But that is all assumption, and could therefore be wrong totally. Whatever, the sudden volume spike of nearly 23 million shares at just the right time for them to be in the target zone is quite suspicious, nicely suspicious of course, not a nasty suspicious.
Friday for dry, Monday for wet imo.