aberdeen asset managemnt this company has fallen from 1.90 per share in may down to 1.34 now. despite having really good broker recommendations, as being a strong buy. Lets hear views and whether or not if you thing they have a good chance of recovery. I have quite a few shares and am wondering whether to stick with or move the money into something else.

Stop to entry for risk free trade.

Latest broker views


Date

Broker

New target

Recomm.


14 Apr Goldman Sachs 540.00 Buy
9 Apr RBC Capital... 495.00 Outperform
7 Apr Credit Suisse 440.00 Neutral
4 Apr JP Morgan... N/A Overweight
3 Apr Numis 450.00 Hold
2 Apr Numis 425.00 Hold
2 Apr Barclays... 535.00 Overweight
2 Apr Jefferies... 350.00 Underperform
1 Apr Canaccord... 460.00 Buy
1 Apr Espirito... 514.00 Buy

Broker Recommendations for Aberdeen Asset Management

Stop to 438.0 to lock in + 15

Highlights
ABERDEEN ASSET MANAGEMENT PLC Interim Results for six months to 31 March 2014
• Revenue £503.5 million (-2%)
• Underlying profit before tax £217.0 million (-3%)
• Underlying earnings per share 14.3p (-4%)
• Dividend per share 6.75p (+12.5%)
• Operating margin 43.0% (2013: 43.8%)
• AuM £324.5 billion
FINANCIAL HIGHLIGHTS
March 2014 Revenue £503.5m
March 2013
£516.0m
£222.8m £188.2m
14.88p 12.43p 6.00p
£221.2m £24.6bn +£4.4bn
£212.3bn
Pre-tax profit
Before amortisation of intangibles & acquisition costs After amortisation of intangibles & acquisition costs Diluted earnings per share
Before amortisation of intangibles & acquisition costs After amortisation of intangibles & acquisition costs Dividend per share
Core operating cashflow
Gross new business
Net new business
Assets under management at period end
£217.0m £168.7m
14.32p 10.67p 6.75p
£221.6m £14.3bn -£8.8bn £324.5bn
Martin Gilbert, Chief Executive of Aberdeen Asset Management, commented:
“Aberdeen has delivered a resilient set of numbers in this half year, given the difficult backdrop for emerging markets. Our disciplined investment approach, long-term investment track record and tradition of client service have enabled us to limit equity outflows whilst we have continued to win mandates in other asset classes, such as fixed income and property.
“There are signs of a pick-up in sentiment towards emerging economies, as investors are again identifying opportunities and recognising the fundamental strengths of these markets. Equally encouraging is the healthy improvement in the relative performance of our key equity products so far this year.
"At the end of March we were delighted to complete our acquisition of SWIP and the process of integrating the business is proceeding as planned. The deal adds scale and strengthens further our broad range of investment capabilities and confirms Aberdeen’ s position as one of the world's leading asset management groups.”
Management will host a presentation for analysts and institutions today at 10:00 (UK) to be held at the offices of Aberdeen Asset Management, Bow Bells House, 1 Bread Street, London EC4M 9HH. The event will also be available to view via a live webconference. To register please use the following weblink:
http://www.media-server.com/m/p/puq2e24j

For more information:
Aberdeen Asset Management
Martin Gilbert Bill Rattray
Maitland
Neil Bennett Tom Eckersley
Chairman’s statement
Chief Executive Finance Director
+ 44 (0) 207 463 6000 + 44 (0) 207 463 6000
+ 44 (0) 207 379 5151 + 44 (0) 207 379 5151
The first half of this financial year was characterised by exacting conditions in emerging markets, with weaker investment sentiment impacting our equity new business flows. Nevertheless, we have enjoyed further encouraging demand for certain of our fixed income and property strategies and have continued to make progress in developing our diversified pipeline of new business which will be added to assets under management (“AuM”) in the coming months.
We completed the major element of the acquisition of Scottish Widows Investment Partnership (“SWIP”) on 31 March 2014, and the purchase of the SWIP infrastructure business completed on 1 May 2014. Considerable corporate energy, in addition to the specific transition-related costs, was invested during the period in bringing this acquisition to a successful conclusion, while the benefits to profitability will not begin to accrue until the beginning of the second half of the financial year.
This transaction adds new and complementary strategies to our product range, and enhances the Group’s position as a leading global asset manager. We aim to build on and deepen the strategic relationship with Lloyds Banking Group as well as marketing our additional capabilities to our worldwide client base.
Total AuM at 31 March 2014 were £324.5 billion; excluding the £134.1 billion added by SWIP, Aberdeen’s AuM fell 5% to £190.4 billion (30 September 2013: £200.4 billion).
Financials
Profit before taxation for the period was £168.7 million (2013: £188.2 million). Underlying profit, stated before amortisation of intangible assets and exceptional costs in respect of the SWIP acquisition, was £217.0 million, compared to £222.8 million in 2013. This represents underlying earnings per share, on a diluted basis, of 14.32p (2013:14.88p).
The Board has decided to pay an interim dividend of 6.75p per share, an increase of 12.5% on the interim dividend announced last year which will be paid on 19 June 2014 to qualifying shareholders on the register at 16 May 2014. This increase is in line with the Board’s objective to pay a growing dividend each year.
Net revenue for the period decreased by 2% to £503.5 million (2013: £516.0 million). Recurring fee income was little changed at £491.1 million (2013: £492.5 million), while performance fees contributed £12.4 million (2013: £23.5 million). The blended average management fee rate remained steady at 50.0 basis points (year to September 2013: 50.0 basis points).
Operating costs of £286.9 million fell by 1% compared to the equivalent period last year, and were 4% lower than for the second half of our last financial year, and we have been proactive in identifying and implementing further cost savings over and above the synergies expected from the SWIP transaction. The Group’s operating margin for the period was 43.0% (2013: 43.8%).
We generated £221.6 million of core operating cashflow (2013: £221.2 million), representing a conversion rate of underlying operating profit of 102% (2013: 98%), and ended the period with a cash position of £410.4 million.
As we stated when we announced the transaction, the addition of SWIP will reinforce Aberdeen’s progressive dividend policy and, while we will incur some one-off integration costs over the next year, it will enhance our ability to return surplus capital to shareholders over time.
Review of operations
Assets under management increased to £324.5 billion, of which the SWIP transaction added £134.1 billion. The principal changes in total AuM are shown in the following table, and a fuller analysis by asset class is included at the end of the interim results statement.
AuM at 30 September 2013
Net new business flows for the period Market movements & performance Exchange movements
SWIP acquisition
AuM at 31 March 2014
£bn
200.4 (8.8) 3.3 (4.5) 190.4 134.1 324.5
Gross new business inflows for the period totalled £14.3 billion (2013: £24.6 billion) and outflows amounted to £23.1 billion (2013: £20.2 billion), resulting in a net outflow for the six month period of £8.8 billion (2013: net inflow £4.4 billion).
Inflows were subdued for the first five months although we then saw some improvement during March as we began to convert the pipeline of new mandates awarded by a range of clients. Against the backdrop of weak investor sentiment, we encountered net outflows from our main equity products, but we enjoyed healthy net inflows to our property, emerging market debt and high yield bond products.
Investment performance across our fixed income strategies is generally ahead of the relevant benchmarks for both short and longer term time periods and our property performance remains robust. Performance of our key equity products has been running behind benchmark on a one year basis, but we have continued to focus on our bottom up, fundamental style of investing for the longer term in good quality companies at attractive valuations, and we have seen healthy outperformance in March and April. It is inevitable that our style will lead to periods of shorter term underperformance, but we believe our longer term performance track record remains compelling and we do not plan to make any significant changes to our equity process.
Our distribution is focused on multiple business and distribution channels with teams operating on-the-ground in 26 countries and covering a further 34 remotely. We continue to see strong growth in North America, continental Europe and selective markets in Asia. Our focus is on providing our existing clients with a high level of service and to market our wider range of products outwith our well known strengths in Asia Pacific, emerging markets and global equities. As reflected in the flow figures, EMD, high yield and European property are areas which are attracting interest.
SWIP completion and integration
The major part of the SWIP transaction was completed on 31 March 2014, for purchase consideration comprising 108.5 million new ordinary shares, a further 17.3 million shares to be issued once Lloyds have received certain regulatory consents and a deferred top-up payment of £39.4 million which is payable on 31 March 2015. A further 5.9 million shares were issued to Lloyds on completion of the acquisition of the SWIP infrastructure business.
We have an excellent track record of integrating businesses with a clear global operating model. The respective teams of Aberdeen and SWIP have worked together over the last few months to create and refine the detailed integration plans across all areas of the business, and the implementation process has begun, and I am pleased to welcome our new colleagues to the Group.
Aberdeen’s traditional approach has been to build relationships with key clients at all levels. Together with the existing SWIP teams we have already started to develop further relationships with Lloyds Banking Group and its Wealth, Insurance and Retail businesses.
As we highlighted in our announcement of the transaction in November, SWIP brings some further diversification to the enlarged Group’s product range, and our Aberdeen solutions business will be enhanced by the integration of SWIP’s quantitative investments, investment solutions and alternatives capabilities. We have also decided to include money market assets as a component of the enlarged Group’s fixed income business.
This re-alignment is consistent with our strategy of growing our non-equity businesses over time. Our enhanced solutions capability, encompassing new quantitative investment strategies, stronger fixed income team and broader alternatives offering, mean we have a comprehensive suite of products to meet the needs of investors around the world.
Outlook
Whilst the six month period under review has been demanding, the completion of the SWIP transaction creates an exceptional platform to ensure the continuity of high quality client service which will enable further organic growth.
Towards the end of the period, there were indications of some pick-up in investor sentiment towards emerging markets, although we anticipate that some uncertainty could remain. More recently, an encouraging improvement in investment performance should improve the outlook for our equities strategies and we are confident that the added scale and breadth of the enlarged Group’s capabilities, combined with our long-term investment focus, provide a solid base from which to pursue further profitable growth for our investors.
Roger Cornick Chairman

On watch list, support @ 400ish, if that goes back to 380.0

On the move again or dead pussycat bounce?

Limit buy triggered this morn @446.1 target 480.0 stop 436.1.

Some support here @ 440.0 needs to hold on 50DMA low volume.

Question now is can it break resistance at 460 or remain in range between 440 - 460?

LATEST BROKER VIEWS

Date Broker New target Recomm.
1 Jul Jefferies... 350.00 Underperform
30 Jun Barclays... 510.00 Overweight
5 Jun Liberum Capital 555.00 Buy
20 May Barclays... N/A Overweight
16 May Numis 455.00 Hold
16 May Berenberg 530.00 Buy
13 May Espirito... 550.00 Buy
12 May Goldman Sachs 540.00 Buy
7 May RBC Capital... 500.00 Outperform
6 May RBC Capital... N/A Outperform

Make your mind up time.

Stuck in a trading range, wouldnt touch it with a barge pole, Carsons judgement is clouded with all the cheap ale he knocks back.

Correct, stuck in a trading range till it isn't Golden Balls. In the meantime profits locked in.

Your profits all go on cheap Aberdeen ale.

Back in long @ 417.50 tight stop.

LATEST BROKER VIEWS

Date Broker New target Recomm.
31 Jul Credit Suisse 440.00 Neutral
30 Jul Credit Suisse 440.00 Neutral
30 Jul Berenberg 510.00 Buy
29 Jul Espirito... N/A Buy
29 Jul Canaccord... 460.00 Hold
29 Jul Jefferies... 350.00 Underperform
28 Jul Numis 455.00 Hold
28 Jul Espirito... 550.00 Buy
10 Jul Barclays... N/A Overweight
1 Jul Jefferies... 350.00 Underperform
Broker Recommendations for Aberdeen Asset Management

From Ed Bowsher, across the river from the City

Dear Reader,
Ed Bowsher
You don't often hear a chief executive say that analysts are too bullish on his company's prospects.

So my interest was piqued when I saw the boss of Aberdeen Asset Management (LSE: ADN), Martin Gilbert, do just that on Friday.

Gilbert reckons that the City's hopes for Aberdeen and the rest of the asset management industry are simply out of step with reality.

In effect, he's saying that share prices in the sector are too high.

It's a refreshingly honest take. But in this case, I think he's wrong. There are some good opportunities in this sector – you just need to know where to look…


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Money managers have over-promised and under-delivered

Gilbert gave his views on the money management business on Bloomberg at the end of last week.

"We have got into a situation where the industry has over-promised and under-delivered… Analysts have been a bit too bullish on the sector. At one stage, we [at Aberdeen] had 19 buy ratings and three holds – you can only go one way from there."

Gilbert's view is sensible, no doubt about it. We're five years into a bull market. It's not the longest ever, but it's beyond the average bull market length. So it would be no great surprise if the stock market fell significantly at some point over the next couple of years.

If that happened, the value of the assets that Aberdeen manages in various funds would fall. And as a result, Aberdeen's fee income – and therefore its profits – would fall too.

Aberdeen has also been hit by the poor performance of emerging markets over the last year. Emerging-market funds are the core of Aberdeen's business, so the company inevitably suffers when sentiment turns against the likes of China and India.

Indeed, Aberdeen lost a mandate to look after assets worth £4bn for a group of Asian investors earlier this year. The strength of the pound has also hurt the company.

What's more, some of the long-term trends for the fund management sector are also negative. Thanks to regulatory changes, fund investors are now better informed about where their money is going. No longer do investors just pay one annual charge for a fund investment. Instead, they pay separate fees to the fund manager and the platform provider, such as Hargreaves Lansdown (LSE: HL).

This greater level of transparency is pressing Aberdeen and its peers to cut charges. And increased competition could drive charges down further. As Gilbert put it: "The fund management-sector has been very easy… It's a high margin business. It does tend to bring in the competition."

On top of that, more and more investors are waking up to the advantages of passive funds over the more expensive actively-managed funds. (A passive fund just tracks a particular stock market index and normally buys all the shares in that index. Active funds employ expensive fund managers to pick their favourite shares, in the hope of beating the market.)

Many large fund management companies don't offer any passive funds. Even where they do, they're inevitably less profitable, given the lower charges that come with them.

It's not all bad news – there are a few good stocks in this sector

Given this background, I agree that some fund management companies are definitely over-valued. Henderson Group (LSE: HGG) is one example. About a fifth of its income comes from performance-related fees. These charges will be especially vulnerable if we see a serious stock market correction.

But there are some reasons to be positive about other firms in the sector.

For starters, I think there's a growing awareness that we all need to save harder. A big chunk of those savings will go into the stock market via investment funds. The new £15,000 annual limit for Individual Savings Account (Isa) investing should also help.

I also think that, despite all the bad news, the valuations for some fund management groups have probably fallen too far. Perhaps surprisingly, Aberdeen is one of the best examples. The share price is down 15% this year, and the price/earnings ratio is now just 13 as a result. That's not too bad at all.

What's more, Aberdeen bought Scottish Widows Investment Partnership (SWIP) earlier this year. SWIP has a decent passive business, so Aberdeen is now a more diversified business and less reliant on emerging markets.

But fund management companies aren't the only way to play the likely long-term trend of increased stock market investment by private individuals. You can also invest in the investment platforms that enable you to buy shares and funds cheaply over the web.

The best-known is Hargreaves Lansdown (LSE: HL), and it's been fabulously successful in recent years. However, I'm not tempted to buy, because it just looks too expensive, and greater competition may force Hargreaves to cut its prices (and margins), before too long.

However, one other stock has caught my eye in this area. It's Charles Stanley (LSE: CAY). Historically, the company is a traditional stockbroker. But it's now sensibly moving to where the growth is, and has launched Charles Stanley Direct, a rival to Hargreaves Lansdown. This new(ish) platform looks good, and I suspect Charles Stanley can be a successful player here. The rest of Charles Stanley's business seems to be doing reasonably well, so at 343p, the company does look tempting.

So, overall, I think that Gilbert was a little harsh on his sector – perhaps reflecting the drop in his company's share price in the past year. Sure, there are no screaming bargains here, and there are issues to worry about, but both Aberdeen and Charles Stanley should prove to be decent investments in the long run.

Got a comment on this article? Leave a comment on the MoneyWeek website, here.

Until tomorrow,

Ed Bowsher

Digital Managing Editor, MoneyWeek

Maybe Martin Gilbert should diss this sector every week. Wish I had added at the beginning of the week now. :0)