Star Energy is currently testing the Avington well in Southern England.
This will take about 4 weeks an RNS news feed said, it started on 25/06/06.

I hope it proves positive so we get a good share price rise!
We are 5% holders but i'm not sure how much in pence potential this is worth for the company.

Another good reason to hold on to this share.

Today might be a disastrous day for NOP.

oops! indeed - take xel last upgrade rns and it tanked - nop have reduced! however see some opportunities for an interesting day ahead here unless you are unfortunate to be in already before this not good at all rns

gl

exit doors already spinning

70p on the line

As I predicted, 74p now and looking gloomy.

Looks like NOP has been mining more water than oil from the rns.

What on earth have they done ?.....bad news this.....TW will not be pleased....

The fall is overdone imo.

At Wijk en Aalburg, which came into commercial production in December 2010,
Northern has experienced the production of increasing quantities of oil,
followed by increasing quantities of water, which has now affected production
levels.

There are several possible explanations for such behaviour. A possibility could
be a near borehole build up of asphaltenes inhibiting flow. The well also has a
geological fault intersecting the base of the reservoir sequence which may be
acting as a conduit for the influx of liquids. It could also be a delay to
influx of lower permeability reservoir matrix gas, as at Grolloo. The issues
are being addressed and instruments were placed in the well on 25th May as a
first step in the determination of possible interventions. The carrying value
of the Wijk en Aalburg field as at 31st December 2010 is approximately 8
million. If the well interventions are ultimately unsuccessful, then Northern
would expect to see significant non cash depletion and impairment charges to
the income statement within the results for the year ending 31st December 2011,
the exact quantum of which would depend on, inter alia, future field
performance and gas prices.

It should be called Southern Petroleum.

Reserve estimates for Geesbrug, Grolloo and Wijk en Aalburg, the Company now expects to report a loss after tax for the year ended 31st December 2010 as a consequence of the resulting additional non cash depletion and impairment charges to the income statement.

Average production for 2010 was approximately 1,200 barrels oil equivalence per
day. The Company expects to report 2010 revenue of approximately 15 million,
broadly in line with market expectations.

Average production for the first four months of 2011 has been just over 1,900
barrels oil equivalence per day.

On average Dutch gas prices have increased by approximately 13% over the first
four months of 2011.

At Grolloo, which started commercial production in late 2009, the initial plan
had been to install compression and or other surface equipment to aid and
increase production once the pressure had stabilised and there was an
observable influx of supplementary gas flow from the lower permeability
reservoir matrix, allowing for the basis of design for the equipment. Until now
no such stabilisation has been observed.

Northern considers that it is not feasible to add compression in time to make a
material impact to 2011 gas production. In conjunction with preparation of the
Annual Report and Accounts for 2010 and for the purposes of production
projection and reserve assessment for the Grolloo gas field, Northern has taken
the decision to adopt what is considered to be the more conservative view that
pressure support from lower permeability reservoir matrix will not occur.

At Wijk en Aalburg, which came into commercial production in December 2010,
Northern has experienced the production of increasing quantities of oil,
followed by increasing quantities of water, which has now affected production
levels.

There are several possible explanations for such behaviour. A possibility could
be a near borehole build up of asphaltenes inhibiting flow. The well also has a
geological fault intersecting the base of the reservoir sequence which may be
acting as a conduit for the influx of liquids. It could also be a delay to
influx of lower permeability reservoir matrix gas, as at Grolloo. The issues
are being addressed and instruments were placed in the well on 25th May as a
first step in the determination of possible interventions. The carrying value
of the Wijk en Aalburg field as at 31st December 2010 is approximately 8
million. If the well interventions are ultimately unsuccessful, then Northern
would expect to see significant non cash depletion and impairment charges to
the income statement within the results for the year ending 31st December 2011,
the exact quantum of which would depend on, inter alia, future field
performance and gas prices.

At Geesbrug, a far larger gas field which was placed on-stream in December
2009, the production performance has been analysed in conjunction with the
disappointing results of the Tiendeveen-1 well five kilometres away. An updated
static reservoir model has been constructed that forms the current basis of the
revised reserves assessment prior to updating the dynamic model.

will be watching for an opportunity here - i like challenges! after 3pm today & tuesday of most interest - yeeeeeeeeeeeeeeehaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa

No, gibby... the fun was early this morning.

i know i was there lol - it is possible for some more end of day / early tues imo - i meant post this morning
gl

There will be more downward trend when NOP announces its reserves which is expected to be much reduced from previous estimation.

Buy Northern Petroleum (NOP) at 133.75p
Argues Tom Winnifrith of t1ps.com

Tom Winnifrith originally tipped Northern Petroleum (NOP) on t1ps.com way back in 2001 at 13.75p. Since then the shares have risen by 873%! But Tom believes there is still much further to go for the share price and that is why this red hot penny share is todays free share tip on UK-Analyst.com.

On t1ps.com, Tom publishes 20 hot tips like this each year with frequent updates on their progress. And while past performance is no guarantee of future success and some have gone down in value, we believe the overall t1ps record is pretty impressive. Since the foundation of the site in the summer of 2000 to 21st January 2011 across 221 tips, the average gain per tip was 59.64% with an average holding period of 31.7 months.*

And heres why Northern Petroleum is still a buy

Anyone without oil exposure at present needs their head examined. But that does not mean you should buy just any old oil stock. You want one with production not a wildcat explorer. You want one that is cheap at $70 oil but which will go through the roof if the Middle East crisis really kicks off. And you want one with exploration upside as a bonus. The stock you want to own is Northern Petroleum.

Now a few declarations before I go on. This company is a corporate client of Rivington Street Holdings, the owner of UK-Analyst.com. Funds I manage own a shed load of Northern shares (and are well up!) and also I first tipped this on t1ps at 13.75p so my readers are already almost 900% ahead. But that does not mean that you should not be buying more. Our fund has done so in recent months as this stock is just phenomenally cheap even in the unlikely event that the Mid East becomes some sort of multi-party democracy using an electoral system devised by Nick Clegg with women only shortlists and oil goes back to $70.

At 132.75p Northern is valued at 122 million. I value this on a sum of the parts basis. And here goes:

Net cash 20 million.

Holland Its producing assets will at current gas prices generate EBITDA of c20 million a year starting this year. There is exploration upside I value at nothing (but that is harsh) and so on a multiple of 5, which is less than a DCF valuation would arrive at, Holland is worth 100 million. That is very much a base case scenario.

The UK Northern is a producer from stakes in 2 fields (Avington and Horndean) with a 3rd (Markwells Wood) due onstream at some stage. It has exploration upside but I shall ignore that totally. Its assets will produce an average of 1.25 million free cashflow (on an $80 price) for 20 years. I shall be mean as this is onshore UK and value them at 10 million.

Guyane Northern has a 1.25% stake in a potentially giant field where Tullow will be actively driving forward a seismic and drilling campaign over the next two years. Wessex ( which also has a 1.25% stake) says that its stake is, on a risk weighted basis, worth 20 million and there is broker research to support this claim. Heck, if Tullow finds something 20 million will be conservative. But it has not yet. So I value this asset at 5 million but note the upside.

Italy Northern has vast exploration acreage which we already know contains at least 50 million barrels but the size of fields in the region where it operates offshore Italy means the real number could be much much more. Northern is exploiting this via a series of farm out deals the biggest of which is with Shell which has already undertaken a lot of seismic work on its acreage with Northern. Clearly Italy has potential but what will trigger the market realising this? Two things: Further big name farmouts as Northern still has stacks of acreage it is not working on actively. And secondly a commitment from Shell to start drilling. My sense is that there will be other farm out deals over the next six months and I expect a decision from Shell by the end of May. Frankly it could come at any time. Right now Id value the Italian assets at an extraordinarily mean 1 a barrel (so call it 50 million) but if Shell says it is drilling the valuation would have to double or quadruple or more. And another big farmout would have a material effect too.

Conclusion

So already we have a valuation on a sum of the parts basis of our incredibly mean Italian valuation of 185 million or 200p per share. But that Italian number is just wrong. If we get the right news from Shell or another farmout you could easily be valuing Italy at 200 million and as such 200p becomes 362p.

The point about this is that you cannot finesse a trade. Nobody knows when mighty Shell will pronounce. No-one knows at what pace Northern will sign other farm out deals but I am certain that it will. By the time you read a release the price will have zoomed ahead. So you just have to ask yourself: what is the downside to buying now?

I am pretty sure that the UK assets could be sold quickly if Northern accepted 10 million. So that would leave net cash at 30 million and Holland chucking off 20 million a year that is net cash 33p and Holland chucking off 22p per annum. That more than underpins the current share price on its own which leaves more or less zero downside risk. So the smart investor just takes the plunge, buys now and waits on Italy. It should not be long. The shares should be trading at 200p right now with the right news from the land of Berlusconi then 362p is not unrealistic. That means that, even if you are already 900% ahead, Northern is a slam dunk buy.

For more hot tips like this from Tom, join t1ps.com now.

I will buy next week.

having held both EO and XEL when they dumped, i'm amazed i have never ever held this one - must be a lot of very sore heads

euhhh....yes...

Did you buy any mitzy. I held this stock until January. Never seemed to move for me.
So low now must move up. Good luck if you purchased.