Any holders out there - there's some buying going on.....

Thanks Guscavalier

JLP is undoubtedly a BUY at 124p.

Future market prospects look good:

Platinum is expected to rally further in 2007 on positive investor sentiment and strong fundamentals, according to precious metal consultancy GFMS.

Launching its Platinum and Palladium Survey 2007, GFMS said the outlook for palladium is also bright, even though heavy Russian stock sales are again expected to tip the metal into a sizeable surplus.

GFMS expects platinum prices to reach a high of 1,450 usd an ounce this year, but warned that the estimate may prove conservative as its survey went to press before this week's new ETF launches were made public.

ETF Securities launched five new physically backed exchange-traded commodities (ETCs) based on platinum, palladium, gold and silver on the London Stock Exchange yesterday.

Meanwhile, Swiss bank ZKB is planning to launch an ETF in platinum, palladium and silver on May 10.

ETCs, like ETFs, trade commodity futures, backing up every ounce of stock bought on paper with actual physical stock. As a result, the launch of an ETF often squeezes the market as it eats up the amount of physical stock available.

For the platinum market in particular, the availability of above ground stocks are limited and GFMS said its positive outlook on platinum is partly based on this.

It is also based on the increasingly inelastic nature of platinum demand. However, GFMS is unsure these two factors alone will drive prices higher, as the platinum market is projected to remain in surplus this year, with mine production expected to grow by 300,000 ounces to 7.3 mln ounces.

Added to this, jewellery making is expected to contract further.

But GFMS said, while risks abound, its overall view is that investor sentiment will stay supportive for platinum due to longer term, background factors such as dollar weakness, inflation concerns and geopolitical tensions.

For palladium, the consultancy's 2007 outlook is more cautious, but it still sees the metal hitting a high of 420 usd an ounce due to continued investor support.

This support is largely linked to buoyancy in other precious metals, although GFMS also expects palladium will get a lift from recovering demand in the jewellery and autocatalyst sectors.

On the other hand, however, GFMS notes heavy stock sales in Russia are again expected to tip the palladium market into surplus. Last year, stock sales of over 1.6 mln ounces left the market in a substantial surplus, said GFMS.

The surplus was also driven by a 5 pct annual rise in mine production, weak jewellery demand and a substantial rise in autocatalyst scrap, all of which outweighed a 2 pct increase in total palladium demand.

For this year, however, GFMS expects palladium mine output to rise by only 2 pct, with gains in South African output forecast to be partly offset by lower production from the world's number one producer Norlisk Nickel.

On the other hand, demand from the auto-catalyst sector is seen extending last year's 8 pct rise - the first in 6 years - while demand for palladium jewellery should improve in China and gain even greater acceptance in the US.

Last year, fabrication of palladium jewellery was weaker even than that of platinum fabrication, which fell 39 pct. Unlike palladium, however, platinum jewellery fabrication is not expected to recover this year.

As Peter Ryan, who presented the survey's findings in London, noted: 'Given that we are forecasting platinum prices to break through 1,400 usd this year we would not be surprised to see further losses in platinum jewellery'.

Losses in platinum jewellery demand last year were so severe they restrained the 6.5 pct rise in demand from the key autocatalyst sector and helped leave overall demand for the year up only 2 pct.

This 2 pct rise in demand was not enough to offset the 6 pct rise in global mine supply. As a result, the platinum market moved into a surplus for the first time since GFMS began its survey in 1999.

But the platinum surplus was 'not seen as bearish' because of low above ground stocks and ongoing investor interest, said GFMS.

l have held this stock since,,,well a long time -and for me the reality of the situation lies in the penultimate paragraph .Supply vastly exceeds demand A fact that was bourne out by a number of prestigous S.African platinum periodicals which berated a number of lnvestent institutions/ brokers / financial journalists for suggesting in the past a dearth of the metal . ,,,l remain bullish simply on the grounds that they have a very exiting diverse portfolio .......................But in playing the % as always its personally time for crystalizing profit.....Any retracement or it can achieve 130 without massive resistance ill jump back in............................Good Luck et al @+ J

Queen1 -Thanks for the informative post. Considering the good market the shares have been in recently, they have not fallen as much as I would have expected after GFMS statement. I am inclined to hold and add again if stock falls back nearer to 100p. There is always the danger of being out of the stock if an offer is made for the Company. Moreover, this may become more likely if the share price weakens.

Don't forget, Jubilee is still trading well below its estimated NAV of 170p.

TheFrenchConnection - I read the statement a little more positively and the fact that the surplus is not seen as bearish is encouraging.

Guscavalier - My pleasure. I'm not too sure of my thoughts re a possible takeover but if that's a possibility that another reason to hold.

chad - Agreed. Let's see if this was a minor correction on a journey nearer to that figure.

This looks like an opportunity level to buy.

Indeed. There was bound to be some profit taking after such a great rise.

What's everyone's views concerning the price of platinum? I read an article recently that siad there's going to be a small surplus this year, but if you take into account the demand created by ETF's (exchange traded funds) there's actually going to be a shortfall.

I still think that it's a strong market chad and JLP is in a great position to benefit in the medium-to-longer term (assuming it maintains its independence).

As far as I am aware JLP has yet to produce a single ounce of platinum and is unlikely to do so for a few years so the current price of platinum is irrelevent. The share price is totally dependant on one of the big mining houses either buying into Tjate or taking over JLP.

Either of which is extremely likely halifax, IMO.

What's happened to these today? :-(

Looking at the trade sizes, probably many short term investors are rushing to take some profit given recent strong performance. Bid speculation has surrounded this one and the lack of any corporate news has encouraged the weakness. Will be interesting to see what level sp is supported but, a situation to add to for the longer term holder below 100p, in my opinion queen1

Agreed, Guscavalier. This is just hot money leaving after a quick buck, no need to worry.

Evening all. Am not a holder as such, but I do have a holding in AMBR, which in turn owns almost 10% of JLP. Thanks, Gus for your last comment, as I agree that the drop is likely to be due to profit-takers. Support has to be out there somewhere, and I shall be watching with interest to see what happens, probably with a view to taking a trading position in AMBR to add to my long-term holding.

Good luck to all.

At this level, it was a great opportunity for me to add on today at 107p

Thanks Guscavalier. I have to admit that I sold a third of my holding today as I was a little unnerved by the fall. I've actually trebled my money on my original stake so today's sale just realised my initial investment. The remaining two-thirds are a free ride - northwards I hope!

London Stock Exchange - 24th May 2007

Expert predicts continued boom in commodities


A fund manager at JP Morgan is predicting that the ongoing boom in commodities is likely to continue ahead in the coming future.

Ian Henderson argues that the future investment potential of commodities remains strong, highlighting lucrative opportunities in precious metals as well as resources such as uranium and platinum.

Mr Henderson highlights strong demand for gold in China, a relatively new market, while Platinum continues to be in demand as a key element in catalytic converters. Uranium is seen as an environmentally-friendly source of electricity generation, compared with coal, and therefore is also in demand.

"It's just a matter of looking for the right opportunities and diversifying the portfolio accordingly," he explained.

"Just a few years ago we wouldnt have touched uranium but now we can see a clear market demand and short supply."

Commodities prices recently posted a decline across markets, fuelling speculation of an end to the commodities boom.