http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

marky you are right in saying the size of the field is important but surely what can be recovered is far more important and at what cost? Say one compares AFR with RKH ....AFR has a market cap of around 900m and we are led to believe should be producing 40000 bopd by year end 2010, whereas RKH has a market cap of 600m approx and is unlikely to produce any oil before 2012 and you estimate even then it might be only 5000 bopd, they have to produce at least 20000 bopd to make extraction worthwhile in this location. Either AFR is grossly undervalued or RKH has to produce a flow test much greater than you suggest.

Proselenes,

I never take much notice of Brokers. How can I when on a broker recommendation list that I receive daily, I often see a Buy/Sell/Hold recommendations from different brokers for the same company. Today 1 broker recommends buy Rockhopper the other recommends sell.

Marky,

I agree the size of the field matters, IE same amount of oil in a widely spread field would be worth less than a concentrated field, also on the ease of production flow, plus many more factors. But I agree with Halifax that the main value factor is mainly put on bopd.

It's not just bopd. It's when the field can be brought into production and then it's cost per barrel to extract, and the margin per barrel (which depends on the oil price).

Barrels of oil per day does matter the higher the better and there are many methods to accelerate the flow of oil.

Desire has medium grade oil and it should flow well.

What I was pointing out was that at this stage when the brokers try to put a price on what RKH are worth they go by the field sizes at the moment not how many barrels it will flow as they dont know that, one of the reason you have a flow test.

After a flow test they have more figures to play with and only then can they re rate RKH.

Its all about how much you have and then after that how quickly you can get it out.

If "A" has 2 million pounds but can take out 10K per day, they still have 2 million pounds and their value is 2 millions pounds.

If "B" has 1 million pounds but can take out 50K per day, they still have a 1 million pounds value.


Some people on here seem to be saying B is worth more even though it actually has less...........

At this point I will let you decide, some of these same people thinking B is better and worth more were also saying sell RKH at 90p.

Do I need to say more........ ? ;)

You maybe able to get a flow rate of 10,000 barrels a day and if you have 5 wells extracting oil from sea lion then you 50,000 barrels a day but for that to happen you need major money or a very good and wealthy partner.

Its all hot air but its also very early days in a exploration company that has hit it big timeits the tip of the ice burg full of whats and ifs.

Exciting times!!!

pros .... change your name to gibber, and then you may make better sense

cynic, what people forget (do they actually forget or just being plain stupid ?) is that


1/ Initial valuation is made on an "in the ground basis". That is how much proven/probable and possible reserves you have.

2/ Secondary valuation is made on how quick you are extracting, how quick you are generating cash.


How can people look at secondary ways of valuing (production output) when RKH is being valued on Initial valuation only at the moment.

Plain nonsense or are they plain stupid ? or just having a deramp as they sold out "wrongly" ? ;)

Markymar,

Now you have made it clear, "What I was pointing out was that at this stage when the brokers try to put a price on what RKH are worth they go by the field sizes at the moment not how many barrels it will flow as they dont know that, one of the reason you have a flow test".
I do agree.

dunno guv; i'm just a thicko holder who also went short FOGL ..... i don't need to try to second-guess the market in this one, for i think marky has it right that RKH is a winner .... how much the short term or even longer term sp price will be, i really have no idea, but my guess is that 450 is certainly realistic

thank god for a bit of sence cyners.,.

Going long on this......hope that there are no problems with the testing because the name will change otherwise to : "Rockflopper" !

Nice recovery from the disappointing news. Happy to continue holding, though buying at 275 would have been nice. Even at 308p surely it's worth having prior to sealion testing? Not sure this result bodes well for Jacinta & Alpha though

She has started to move, double the buy orders on level 2 could be a good sign.

I sold a few at 336p to lock in profit then bought a few at 180 on the dip, but glad i didn't sell any more this week.

Aldwick what dip? they have been round the 3 mark since they hit the oil.

Your wrong Markymar , look at the chart it dipped below 180p on 2/6/2010

The main thing to concentrate on with the flow tests is in fact :

THE RECOVERY RATE !!!

242M is based on a 30% recovery rate.

If that recovery rate were to be increased after flow tests to 40% then you would see a big increase in the 242M recoverable barrels, and therefore the share price target.

delete

If the recovery rate is increased to 40% and there is no updgrade for underlying quantity are you saying the 242 estimate increases to c323 and your 7.50 has a similair increase (i.e. +33% to 10)?