http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

pros .... change your name to gibber, and then you may make better sense

cynic, what people forget (do they actually forget or just being plain stupid ?) is that


1/ Initial valuation is made on an "in the ground basis". That is how much proven/probable and possible reserves you have.

2/ Secondary valuation is made on how quick you are extracting, how quick you are generating cash.


How can people look at secondary ways of valuing (production output) when RKH is being valued on Initial valuation only at the moment.

Plain nonsense or are they plain stupid ? or just having a deramp as they sold out "wrongly" ? ;)

Markymar,

Now you have made it clear, "What I was pointing out was that at this stage when the brokers try to put a price on what RKH are worth they go by the field sizes at the moment not how many barrels it will flow as they dont know that, one of the reason you have a flow test".
I do agree.

dunno guv; i'm just a thicko holder who also went short FOGL ..... i don't need to try to second-guess the market in this one, for i think marky has it right that RKH is a winner .... how much the short term or even longer term sp price will be, i really have no idea, but my guess is that 450 is certainly realistic

thank god for a bit of sence cyners.,.

Going long on this......hope that there are no problems with the testing because the name will change otherwise to : "Rockflopper" !

Nice recovery from the disappointing news. Happy to continue holding, though buying at 275 would have been nice. Even at 308p surely it's worth having prior to sealion testing? Not sure this result bodes well for Jacinta & Alpha though

She has started to move, double the buy orders on level 2 could be a good sign.

I sold a few at 336p to lock in profit then bought a few at 180 on the dip, but glad i didn't sell any more this week.

Aldwick what dip? they have been round the 3 mark since they hit the oil.

Your wrong Markymar , look at the chart it dipped below 180p on 2/6/2010

The main thing to concentrate on with the flow tests is in fact :

THE RECOVERY RATE !!!

242M is based on a 30% recovery rate.

If that recovery rate were to be increased after flow tests to 40% then you would see a big increase in the 242M recoverable barrels, and therefore the share price target.

delete

If the recovery rate is increased to 40% and there is no updgrade for underlying quantity are you saying the 242 estimate increases to c323 and your 7.50 has a similair increase (i.e. +33% to 10)?

I think I shall do an all in one post so anyone can keep on cut and pasting it, as the questions seem to keep being repeated.

Rockhopper

FLOW TESTS are expected to take 45 days.

The 45 days is due to the tests being extensive. Each of the two zones to be tested will be tested twice. 1st zone tested, then 2nd zone tested, then 1st again, then 2nd again.

This will give them strong data with which they can make further assessments and calculations with regard to the Sea Lion prospect.


The main thing with the flow tests is not the flow rate, its more of the calculations into the "RECOVERY FACTOR".

The present 242M barrels is based on a 30% recovery factor. The upside or downside from the flow test results will be to do with the calculation of the actual recovery factor.

242M barrels recoverable based on 30% = circa 720p a share in the ground basis.

If the recovery factor is lower, say 20% then the recoverable barrels falls to 161M barrels and its value therefore is 480p a share on an in the ground basis.

If the recovery factor is higher, say 40%, then the recoverable barrels rises from 242M to 322M.

322M is worth circa 958p a share on an in the ground basis.

So this is where there is downside and upside from the flow test results. However, all being well, even if the recovery factor is lowered down, the resultant in the ground basis for the share price is still well in advance of the current share price, which is why the share price remains strong even with Ernest failure.

Feel free to copy and paste as needed in future.

Proselenes,

Good post.

Thanks for the clarification Proselenes, much appreciated!

thanks prossy - very helpful indeed ... it follows that flowtest results won't be announced until very end september or even a little later

Next News i would think of Sea Lion flow test should be mid October so i better get my knitting out as we have quiet a wait.

Maybe knit Cynic some leg warmers!

you can sort out a nubile masseuse for me at the end of each day's cycling instead! ..... it's not that the massage will be needed, but the excuse will suffice - Beloved says i have her blessing!