http://www.uwgcapital.com/#/oilex/4574257208
24th April 2013 - 11.24 am
Oilex and its Cambay field is a tight gas play similar to those which have given the US virtual energy independence. India and the Gujarat state (one of the most industrialized states in India) are in desperate need of this gas to forfill its much needed expansion plans and address nationwide power shortages.
Oilex had a frustrating 2012 with technical issues hampering its success, however they intend to go back to the drill bit soon to prove up its reserves and begin production via a modular facility which will allow it to expand production rapidly when further wells are developed.
There is execution risk involved here but we believe that the upside far outweighs the downside risks given the demand & supply inbalance in India and the recent technological advances in tight gas plays over the last few years.
Top of the range estimates for Oilex are as high as 1.6TCF and 248mmbls net to Oilex. This strongly hints that Oilex's current valuation accounts for almost none of this. Moreover, in October 2011 four deeper zones at Cambay were estimated to hold an undiscovered total of 12.4TCF GIIP and 11,592MMbo. This is a huge amount of potential GIIP and the current drilling program is looking to shore up some of these figures and value.
Use the recent about turn over foreign investment in India and share price weakness to build a position in Oilex for the impending multi well program. Oilex has other projects also such as stakes in an offshore Australian field and an asset near the small island of Timor Leste where it holds a 10% minority interest and more recently onshore Canning Basin Western Australia, however India is where its true value lies.
What is tight gas? - Tight gas is natural gas trapped in low permeability sandstone reservoirs. Tight gas reservoirs may produce economically if gas flow towards the well can be encouraged by processes such as hydraulic fracturing.
Tight gas reservoirs form in the same way as their conventional counterparts, the difference being that the rock into which the gas migrates after expulsion from the source has very low permeability. A typical tight gas reservoir has a better recovery factor than a shale gas deposit. Thus the density of recoverable gas per unit of land surface will usually be higher than for shale gas formations, although non-conventional techniques are still necessary for profitable production. Globally, volumes of tight gas are estimated to be between 11,000tcf and 18,000tcf, although low recovery factors, due to limitations in technology, mean that only 700-1,800tcf is currently deemed accessible. However the advances in drilling technology seen over the past few years in shale gas in North Americais are directly transferable to the tight gas fields that Oilex will currently begin drilling.
11/4/13 - Cambay Gas Sales Agreement signed - Gas Sales Agreement signed with an Indian public limited company the agreement covers sales of Cambay-73 gas for two years once all approvals are secured this agreement clearly demonstrates the excellent gas commercialisation opportunities in India. Production from Cambay-73 is expected to commence within two months of all Government approvals and gas sales will commence immediately thereafter. The initial gas volumes may be approximately 200 Mscf per day. In addition to the cash flow from gas sales, the production data from Cambay-73 should provide important data to support the premise of commercial production rates from the X and Y zones in the Eocene. With the drilling program agreed on the 10th which will include one firm horizontal well and four wells in a contingent drilling campaign the formal tendering of drilling rig and other long lead equipment has commenced. It looks like real movement at the field may be about to commence which will surely impact positively on the share price.
19/04/13 - Oilex has increased it's acerage with the additon of a Special Prospecting Authority with Acreage Option (SPA/AO) covering ~11,400 km2 (~2,800,000 acres) in the onshore Canning Basin, Western Australia. Oilex has also submitted bids on two gazettal blocks immediately adjacent to the awarded SPA area. This provides long-term growth optionality and geographical diversity whilst leveraging technical experience and commercial relationships of from Oilex's Indian unconventional energy strategy. The strategic rationale behind the purchase is that it provides a Low-cost, low-risk entry into a premier emerging unconventional basin which has key geological similarities to Oilex’s Indian acreage (thus repeatability). In 2011 EIA reported the Canning Basin has “risked technically recoverable resources ~ 229Tcf”. The field is in close proximity to infrastructure with gas pipelines passing through the SPA to mine sites.
Acting Managing Director Ron Miller said, "Our entry into the Canning Basin with SPA-0055 represents a low-cost, low-risk opportunity for Oilex to secure long-term growth optionality and geographical diversity in a second petroleum basin, without diluting its immediate focus on value delivery from the Cambay Field in India. We see this as a long term positive for shareholders and the share price may see medium term upside from the increasing activity in the area from industry peers as well as the acreages proximity to the mass natural gas markets of Asia especially Korea and Japan.