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Any views on Astrazeneca (AZN)     

Ranjith - 07 Dec 2003 22:31

Got a good line of products, but the share price seem to go down , could it be due to the weak us dollar.

HARRYCAT - 02 May 2014 11:45 - 24 of 92

Lots of broker notes around today.
Here's Deutsche Bank:
Pfizer has proposed an offer for AstraZeneca worth £50 per share which includes slightly higher equity and cash elements than the deal initially floated in private talks in January 2014 (the offer now stands at 1.845 Pfizer shares plus £15.98 in cash per AstraZeneca share vs 1.758 Pfizer shares plus £13.98 cash previously). While we expect this to be sufficient for AstraZeneca to enter into a dialogue, we strongly doubt this will gain the requisite AstraZeneca Board recommendation given that the new offer is pitched at just 7% above the January offer (which was dismissed in AstraZeneca’s press release earlier this week as “very significantly” undervaluing the company) … but we think offer needs to be sweetened with higher cash to be successful.
We expect Pfizer ultimately to have to sweeten its offer based on (1) discussions we have had with investors (many citing a price within the £52-55 range and some above this) and (2) our analysis of the EPS accretion for Pfizer which shows relatively limited sensitivity to increasing the cash component of its offer (given the low returns on cash). For example, were Pfizer to retain the equity component of its offer (ie, 1.845 Pfizer shares per AstraZeneca share) but to lift the cash element by £5/share, taking the offer to £55/share (with 38% cash), we calculate that year three accretion would be lowered by just 2% (from between 9-17% to 7-15%, based on hypothetical cost savings in the range of $2-4bn and assuming AstraZeneca’s tax rate applies to the whole group). By our calculations £55/share is roughly the point at which the NPV of the cost savings (taking the mid-point of the hypothetical $2-4bn range mentioned here) and tax benefits would equal the premium paid to the unaffected share price of circa £38/share before the press reports surfaced."

skinny - 02 May 2014 12:12 - 25 of 92

ASTRAZENECA BOARD REJECTS PFIZER PROPOSAL

The Board of AstraZeneca PLC ("AstraZeneca") has met and considered the letter from Pfizer Inc. ("Pfizer") (the "Proposal").

The financial and other terms described in the Proposal are inadequate, substantially undervalue AstraZeneca and are not a basis on which to engage with Pfizer. The large proportion of the consideration payable in Pfizer shares and the tax-driven inversion structure remain unchanged. Accordingly, the Board has rejected the Proposal.

Leif Johansson, Chairman of AstraZeneca, said: "AstraZeneca continues to invest significantly in research, development and manufacturing in the U.K., Sweden and the U.S. We are showing strong momentum as an independent company, in particular with our exciting, rapidly progressing pipeline, which the Board believes will deliver significant value for shareholders. Pfizer's proposal would dramatically dilute AstraZeneca shareholders' exposure to our unique pipeline and would create risks around its delivery. As such, the Board has no hesitation in rejecting the Proposal."

Shareholders are strongly advised to take no action. There can be no certainty that an offer will be made nor as to the terms on which any offer might be made.

A copy of this announcement will be available on AstraZeneca's website at www.astrazeneca.com.

HARRYCAT - 13 May 2014 11:53 - 26 of 92

13 May 2014
The Board of AstraZeneca PLC (“AstraZeneca”) notes the announcement made by Pfizer Inc. (“Pfizer”) earlier today. Pfizer’s announcement contains no new proposal nor substantive new information.

The Board of AstraZeneca believes Pfizer is making an opportunistic attempt to acquire a transformed AstraZeneca, without reflecting the value of its exciting pipeline. This value should accrue fully to AstraZeneca shareholders.

The Board reiterates its confidence in AstraZeneca’s ability to deliver on its prospects as an independent, science led business.

A copy of this announcement will be available on AstraZeneca’s website at www.astrazeneca.com.

HARRYCAT - 19 May 2014 08:43 - 27 of 92

Pfizer's proposals bring uncertainty and risks for AstraZeneca shareholders

The Board of AstraZeneca PLC ("AstraZeneca" or the "Company") notes the announcement by Pfizer Inc. ("Pfizer") of its final proposal (the "Final Proposal"), comprising £24.76 in cash (45%) and 1.747 Pfizer shares (55%) per AstraZeneca share, representing a value of £55.00 per AstraZeneca share (based on the closing price of Pfizer shares on 16 May 2014). This proposal undervalues the Company and its attractive prospects and has been rejected by the Board of AstraZeneca.

Leif Johansson, Chairman of AstraZeneca said:

"Pascal Soriot, Marc Dunoyer and I had a lengthy discussion with Pfizer over the weekend about the proposal Pfizer made on Friday evening at a value of £53.50 per share. During this discussion, Pfizer said that it could consider only minor improvements in the financial terms of the Friday Proposal. In response, we indicated, even assuming that other key aspects of any proposal had been satisfactory, that the price at which the Board of AstraZeneca would be prepared to provide a recommendation would have to be more than 10% above the level contained in Pfizer's Friday Proposal. The Final Proposal is a minor improvement which continues to fall short of the Board's view of value and has been rejected."

skinny - 19 May 2014 08:52 - 28 of 92

A single handed knock on the FTSE.

HARRYCAT - 19 May 2014 11:18 - 29 of 92

UBS comment today:
"Pfizer has increased its bid for AZN by ~15% over its May 2 proposal to £55.00 ($92.53) per share, consisting of 2,476 pence/$41.66 (up from ~33% to 45% in cash) and 1.747 shares in the combined company. Pfizer indicated that this is the fourth and final proposal, but CEO Ian Read states in the PR: Following a conversation with AstraZeneca earlier today, we do not believe that the AstraZeneca board is currently prepared to recommend a deal at a reasonable price. We remain ready to engage in a meaningful dialogue but time for constructive engagement is running out.”
Our take: Pfizer wants AZN but doesn’t appear willing to go high enough. Pfizer has indicated that it needs to add critical mass to its 3 business units, ie, to get bigger before moving to get smaller. Pfizer is clearly attracted to the much-hyped IO pipeline for which we still haven't seen much data, so Pfizer would be taking some risk on the data and competitive positioning. It appears that once again AstraZeneca has said NO, but based on the new bid, for what it’s worth, it appears that the deal would be accretive in the mid-single digits in 2016 and 2017.
Thoughts on the stock: PFE probably bounces some on the rejection given that management telegraphed not just the deal but practically the price, we wouldn't expect investors to be very surprised by this new bid. We still believe most of the large pharma deals of the past decade destroyed value and this potential deal probably would as well. However, we get the strategy and rationale for the deal, and investors have already hit the stock quite a bit out of concern Pfizer would keep raising the price to get AstraZeneca to say yes, so along with the arbs unwinding some positions, we would expect the stock to bounce back some. However, many investors believe Pfizer needed this deal and thus will be disappointed if this is the way it all ends. We still believe Pfizer can find more productive use for $116B."

cynic - 19 May 2014 11:20 - 30 of 92

it's also a very good example on why one should be very careful about chasing shares on t/o approaches, let alone rumours of same

rekirkham - 19 May 2014 12:19 - 31 of 92

If the bid is worth £55 per share or could yet be increased to ? £53.50 + 10% = £59 ?, it seems a reasonable gamble to me to buy them at current price of £4220 for a 38% gain.

Any t/o may not complete, but this seems a very narrow price difference that would
persuade the Zenica Board to recommend the offer. If it did not go through then an
equal drop the other way would bring the price to £ 26. ( ie £ 42 - £ 16 )

I not sure about my logic but it does not look unreasonable to me, to buy at current price of about £4220

What does anyone else think ?

cynic - 19 May 2014 16:37 - 32 of 92

wrong logic entirely
the deal is totally dead in the water - and rightly so, as it looked like little more than a tax dodge by pfizer

the price to buy, if at all, is somewhere lower than the level before any bid was tabled

i'm not in any pharma stocks, but i reckon my choice would be SHP

rekirkham - 20 May 2014 07:19 - 33 of 92

It does not matter whether it is a tax dodge or not, we must look at it on the face of current legislation the UK have agreed. We live in a supposedly democracy, and no matter how politicians ply their trade and consequently put one another down to gain their own prestige and votes, and try to show they are concerned about UK research and jobs, it should still be democratic. We do not live in a dictatorship, nor are we a communist country, free trade should negotiable for all, no matter how big or small.

Pfizer are offering good money, and they are not going to say " we may increase", but will say "this is our final offer". This is how I would buy any business. I would "take it to the wire", and I would expect this of Americans. So perhaps we do not need to ask Pfizers motives, or listen to Politicians propaganda, but look at value for money ?

If the price is right - take the cash and run. I understand the Directors have said , that if the price was increased by 10% from £53.50, then they would recommend the offer.
AZ shares have been trading at about £28 for some time previously, and now we have a forecast of, if research is successful, then better times ahead and ? a doubling of the share price to over £55 ??? - I doubt it, and would not be prepared to wait about 4 /5 years to see if it is proven to be correct or not.
I think shareholders should take the good cash offered, and reinvest it elsewhere - it could be a gain for the UK economy, not a loss as protective politicians believe. Buy a Chinese bank or something instead of having AZ ?

It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks. Remember also we have a Takeover code, and they could come back again after a suitable time lapse.

Let me know what your thought are - in this ( is it free country ) democracy.

skinny - 20 May 2014 07:24 - 34 of 92

PFIZER FINAL PROPOSAL TO ASTRAZENECA

STATEMENT FROM PFIZER INC.

FINAL PROPOSAL TO ASTRAZENECA




This is an announcement of a possible offer falling under Rule 2.4 of the City Code on Takeovers and Mergers (the "Code"). It does not represent a firm intention to make an offer under Rule 2.7 of the Code. Accordingly, there can be no certainty that any offer will ultimately be made.


In response to enquiries from market participants, Pfizer would like to confirm the following in respect of its announcement of 18 May 2014 which set out its final proposal to AstraZeneca (the "Final Proposal Announcement").

In the Final Proposal Announcement, Pfizer announced a possible offer comprising, for each AstraZeneca share, 1.747 shares in the combined entity and 2,476 pence in cash, representing an indicative value of £55.00. Pfizer stated that this proposal is final and cannot be increased except in limited circumstances specified in the Final Proposal Announcement. In addition, Pfizer stated that it will not make a hostile offer and will only announce a firm offer with the recommendation of the AstraZeneca board.

The effect of Pfizer's Final Proposal Announcement under the Takeover Code is that Pfizer will not be permitted to announce a firm offer unless such offer is on terms no higher than those set out in the Final Proposal Announcement (save as set out below) and such offer is recommended by AstraZeneca's board. Pfizer must, by 5.00 p.m. on 26 May 2014 or such later date as the Panel may agree at AstraZeneca's request, announce such a recommended firm offer or make a statement that it does not intend to make an offer for AstraZeneca. If Pfizer states that it does not intend to make an offer, Pfizer will be subject to the restrictions in Rule 2.8 and Note 2 on Rule 2.5 of the Code.


Pursuant to the Code, Pfizer will only be entitled to increase the final proposal in the following limited circumstances:

· If Pfizer's share price and/or the dollar/pound exchange rate changes such that the indicative value of Pfizer's final proposal would be less than £55.00 at the time of any firm offer announcement, then Pfizer has reserved the right to add further cash or Pfizer shares to its proposal in order to restore the indicative value of its offer to £55.00 (but no higher).

· Also, Pfizer has reserved the right to increase its proposal if, prior to the announcement of a firm offer by Pfizer, a third party announces a firm intention to make an offer for AstraZeneca pursuant to Rule 2.7 of the Code which, at the date Pfizer announces a firm offer for AstraZeneca, is valued at a price which is higher than the then indicative value of Pfizer's final proposal.

· If AstraZeneca ultimately decides to recommend Pfizer's final proposal and Pfizer announces a recommended offer on the terms set out in the Final Proposal Announcement, then Pfizer has reserved the right subsequently to increase its offer at any time. However, it is important to note that such right may be exercised only after Pfizer has obtained a recommendation from the AstraZeneca board of the terms set out in the Final Proposal Announcement and announced a recommended firm offer on this basis.

Pfizer has also made statements in the Final Proposal Announcement which reserve Pfizer's right to introduce other forms of consideration, vary the mix of consideration and reduce its proposal in certain circumstances.

A copy of this announcement will be available on Pfizer's website at www.pfizerupdate.com.

HARRYCAT - 26 May 2014 18:39 - 35 of 92

(Reuters) - Pfizer abandoned its attempt to buy AstraZeneca for nearly 70 billion pounds ($118 billion) on Monday as a deadline approached without a last-minute change of heart by the British drugmaker.

The decision ends a month-long public fight between two of the world's biggest pharmaceutical companies that sparked political concerns on both sides of Atlantic over jobs and corporate tax manoeuvres.

British rules now require an enforced cooling-off period. AstraZeneca could reach out to Pfizer after three months and Pfizer could take another run at its smaller British rival in six months time, whether it is invited back or not.

robinhood - 02 Jul 2014 12:25 - 36 of 92

Astrazenica ceo bought £2m of AZN shares yday-if he is so confident then so am I and as a result jumped as a punt on the bandwagon

HARRYCAT - 23 Sep 2014 11:15 - 37 of 92

Down 5% due to the following:
Deutsche Bank "The US Treasury has announced a package of measures designed to stop US companies taking advantage of inversion deals, including "spin-versions". These appear more far-reaching than anticipated (although they are not retroactive for deals already completed). It is unclear whether the moves threaten completion of to-be-consummated deals, given that other benefits (cost savings, pipeline expansion, strategic elements) may still be sufficient to justify such deals proceeding and that the extent to which the Treasury changes impact the financial benefits cannot be quantified externally (we await the first formal response from one of the pending US acquirors). Regarding AstraZeneca, we note that Pfizer never quantified the extent to which tax benefits were important to its evaluation of the company and thus - with other strategic attractions (oncology pipeline, EM expansion etc) - it is unclear to us whether, or to what extent, the overnight news materially diminishes the chance of Pfizer renewing its interest post 26 November."

midknight - 24 Oct 2014 13:01 - 38 of 92

Green light in Europe for AZN ovarian cancer drug

midknight - 24 Oct 2014 13:08 - 39 of 92

Also: News

midknight - 05 Feb 2015 15:45 - 40 of 92

,Results and news

Feb 5:

Berenberg: Hold - TP: 4800p
Jefferies: Buy - TP: 5600p,
Liberum Capital: Buy - TP: 5800p
Shore Capital: Buy

midknight - 06 Feb 2015 10:10 - 41 of 92

Feb 6:
Panmure Gordon: Buy - TP: 5000p
Beaufort Securities: Hold - TP: N/A
Deutsche Bank: Hold - TP: 4800p

midknight - 06 Feb 2015 10:49 - 42 of 92

Questor/Telegraph says Hold/Solid long term investment

midknight - 09 Feb 2015 10:29 - 43 of 92

Feb 9: Citigroup: Buy - TP: 5400p
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