Moving up.

Anybody know why?


Results Date : Monday 23 February 2004

http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200401121226091124U.html

IMHO PRO is truly a basket case now - Glycosal, the semi-automatic machine has "higher than anticipated retirement rate, particularly in the more busy clinics", ie it's too slow and hands-on for the market and customers are finding better ways to do the tests. Thus the recurring revenues from the cartridges are falling off. That the supply chain is trimming its inventories would also suggest falling demand. In fairness, what isn't said is whether the shipment of new machines is keeping pace with the "retirement rate" of those already supplied.

The great white hope, G5, the automatic machine isn't due to be submitted for approvals until Q2 and is expected to launch in the Autumn - Oh, yes?

On top of this, the finances are having to be propped up by a 3m loan from Barclays with heaven knows what loan covenants. Yes, they've had 1.5m from Dr Falk Pharma, yes they've got another 2m coming in Jan 05 (which I bet is what they've borrowed against), and yes they stop paying Pfizer in November this year (the next FY, note.) BUT the losses are increasing and even if G5 is "launched" in "the Autumn" it'll be some months after that, at best, before Provalis will be able to book any meaningful revenues. I hope they can bridge the gap, but the back of my envelope this morning didn't tell me to keep them on a watch list.

I'm sorry, I had hopes, not high perhaps, but hopes anyway that this might have been the turning point for this old dog. It wasn't to be and on this occasion I got out in time - I'm pleased: I don't often get the exit right. For all those still in: I've been this soldier many times before and I feel for you; I hope you manage to get out on a spike and without too much pain.

DYOR, etc

Thanks publess

I was lucky to get out with a profit but these may be worth looking at again next year.

Good luck for next year for those still holding.

Hmmmm,

Looks like I may have been right about next year but this tip has given it a boost in the meantime.

14/06/04 08:01 UK smallcap opening - Provalis up on Sunday Telegraph 'buy' advice AFX

The FDA approval has given it a boost but I suppose it will fall back to 6p again just like last time. Profits look to be some way off so I think I'll wait for it to fall back to about 6p again before deciding if it is worth another punt.