http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

I bet that half way through the testing that some update of a kind will come out....mid october seems too far away...

don't agree .... i think RKH have a pretty effective lockdown in place

What ?...no info until october 15th or so.....not sure about that....they could say such and such a flow with more to come from more testing....remember...they like giving out rns's on consecutive days....

mad hatter, I am basing this on an "in the ground" value of 8.5 US$ per barrel.

8.5 US$ per barrel I think is fair, based on the oil field being in British Waters, with no licensing issues and with a supportive government, and excellent fiscal terms (unlike lets say Kurdistan where most of the money will go to the government, perhaps even as high as 80% to 90%).

As more finds happen, and more oil is discovered and as therefore the economics of scale mean production costs fall, you could raise that to say 10 US$ a barrel, however for now 8.5US$ is fair IMO.

Therefore you take 8.5US$ a barrel and times by 242M barrels (as this is RKH 100% owned) and then divide this by the shares in issue to give your target price per share.

pp are the whole 242m barrels recoverable?

of course not, and i guess that's the real point you are making ..... i see above that ONLY 30% is currently reckoned as recoverable, the flowtest being to prove or amend that ..... using Pros's own calc, that means that Sealion as a stand alone field has a value of 285/300

however, i guess that improved technology could/should improve on that and of course there are a number of other targets in the immediate vicinity, which gives additional blue sky factor

cynic so at this stage any guesstimate of the value of RKH may prove right or completely wrong..... you pays your money and takes your chance as usual.

cynic by the way taking your 30% recoverable guesstimate we calculate RKH is worth 215p as things stand today..... 30% 0f 242m=73m@ $8.5=$617m= 400m divided by 192m shares issued = around 215p if our arithmetic is correct.

Eh'oop Halifax

Tha' didn't read Pros right - 'e said :
quote 242M is based on a 30% recovery rate unquote

Tha's takin 30% o' 30%.

Perhaps I should make things clearer.


PRESENTLY THE SEA LION PROSPECT IS BELIEVED TO BE 806M barrels OF OIL IN PLACE.

OF WHICH 30% IS SEEN AS RECOVERBALE

MEANING 242M BARRELS RECOVERABLE.

RKH HAS 100% OF THIS PROSPECT, SO THE WHOLE 242M IS TO RKH.


If the OIP figure is upgraded from 806M barrels, then the 30% figure also rises.

If the recovery factor is increased from the present 30% then so the recoverable figure rises.


:)

I think I shall do an all in one post so anyone can keep on cut and pasting it, as the questions seem to keep being repeated.

Rockhopper

FLOW TESTS are expected to take 45 days.

The 45 days is due to the tests being extensive. Each of the two zones to be tested will be tested twice. 1st zone tested, then 2nd zone tested, then 1st again, then 2nd again.

This will give them strong data with which they can make further assessments and calculations with regard to the Sea Lion prospect.


The main thing with the flow tests is not the flow rate, its more of the calculations into the "RECOVERY FACTOR".

The present 242M barrels is based on a 30% recovery factor. The upside or downside from the flow test results will be to do with the calculation of the actual recovery factor.

242M barrels recoverable based on 30% = circa 720p a share in the ground basis.

If the recovery factor is lower, say 20% then the recoverable barrels falls to 161M barrels and its value therefore is 480p a share on an in the ground basis.

If the recovery factor is higher, say 40%, then the recoverable barrels rises from 242M to 322M.

322M is worth circa 958p a share on an in the ground basis.

So this is where there is downside and upside from the flow test results. However, all being well, even if the recovery factor is lowered down, the resultant in the ground basis for the share price is still well in advance of the current share price, which is why the share price remains strong even with Ernest failure.


PS :

Presently the OIP (Oil in Place figure) is said to be 806M barrels so 30% recoverable from this gives 242M barrels recoverable as quoted above.

The OIP figure may be raised after flow test and after appraisal drilling (as they have as yet not found the water/oil contact and the structure may be much deeper in other places, hence the need for appraisal to upgrade the OIP figure).

RKH own the prospect 100%, so the recoverable barrels figure is all to the account of RKH.


Feel free to copy and paste as needed in future.

i still suspect that 450 will prove to be an achievable target in the foreseeable future, and certainly sp at the current level would not appear o'valued

cynic you and all of us can keep on guessing till october, your guess is at the moment as good as anybody else.

in that case, it's a pretty good guess :-))

Taking all this in...I reckon on a good flow test plus the potential of more in the ground : another 100p perhaps to be added to the sp prior to Desire's next spud....

Another big question is how much is all this going to cost ?.....a farm in with a big company has to be coming or are they going to sell the lot to BP ?.....RKH is an exploration company and the jump into a producing one takes some doing in 200m of water in the south atlantic !......

RF i have just choked on my cup of tea reading that post 2429.

Steady with the biscuits....well....what do you make of it ?......it raises many a question about where we are heading with this company.....

rf a deal with BLT more of a possibility as they are on the ground in the FI whereas BP trying to lower their international profile hence decision to postpone drilling in Libyan waters.

Some sort of deal has to come along....