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LOL

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9194819/Argentina-told-it-must-pay-back-45-million-UK-loans-that-were-partly-used-to-fund-Falklands-invasion.html

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This article is good, it would have been better if it started with

"BP, which has assets locked up in Argentina that its trying to sell but so far has not been able to, has said.............."

LOL

http://www.laht.com/article.asp?ArticleId=490694&CategoryId=14093

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Well, they should be at TD this weekend imo, giving a few days for wireline and interpretation we should have some drilling results news late next week.

Going to be fun !

Given most people are long if they want to be long BOR, short if they want to be short BOR, talking crap and saying its massive risk and not worth buying if they are in cash and waiting to buy on any good news - I thought its worth a quick Darwin prospect summary ahead of the results, likely next week.


Darwin is a "Springhill" play. The Toroa drill proved that the Springhill sands are good and viable - so the risk for the sands being there and viable is greatly reduced risk.

Darwin has a "flat spot" and this is backed up with AVO - which is like the "holy grail" of wildcat exploration, its pointing to a contact point between gas and water, oil and water OR BEST CASE gas and oil. Might be wrong, but not often.

With a whole host of DHI's (Direct Hydrocarbon Indicators) and with the Springhill sands proven as good and very viable for reservoir in another location - things do look rather good for BOR to have success at Darwin.

Given the massive amount of failures with drills most people overlook the actual data and simply apply an illogical logic that they feel lucky or not, or that wells have more chance of failure so they will therefore fail.

However, BOR in this case does have a very good CoS and I think people are being far too dismissive of Darwin and its prospect for success. Its certainly not a dead cert to find hydrocarbons, but it does have a very high CoS for a wildcat well imo.

Fingers crossed, we shall see in a short while whether the longs were rightly optimistic, or whether the people who back failure are right to do so again.

I am firmly in the long camp.

Mr P - what is the difference if any between a flat spot and a dome? ..... i ask merely because my in my ignorance, i recollect that the massive saudi deposit often refers back to the dammam dome and similar

A dome is a formation.

A flat spot is where 2 different fluids meet. If you fill a glass with 25% water and 25% oil and then tilt it 45 degree's, you will see that the oil remains on top and the water below, but there is a "flat spot" between them - meaning a horizontal line where the 2 fluids touch.

This is a flat spot.

Flat spots can be gas to oil, gas to water or oil to water.

By having a flat spot along (particularly over an angled formation) with supporting AVO its a very strong indication that either gas or oil are present in a reservoir sand situation.

many thanks so far, but if a dome is also (apparently) such good news, what does that indicate other than a "formation"?

A dome would refer to the shape of the structure - like an upside down pudding bowl, so it gets called a "dome".

doh! i'm not that silly :-) ...... i was merely wondering why that should (also) be deemed a very promising structure for black gold, which would seem to be the case

Are flat spots flat ?

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/39909/borders-southern-petroleum-retains-buy-rating-at-merchant-securities-after-darwin-well-spud-39909.html

Borders & Southern Petroleum retains 'buy' rating at Merchant Securities after Darwin well spud

7th Mar 2012, 9:17 am by Sergei Balashov Merchant Securities currently has a 'buy' recommendation and a 218.9p on Borders & Southern

Merchant Securities today repeated its ‘buy’ recommendation and ultra-bullish target price on Borders & Southern Petroleum (LON:BOR) following the start of its hotly anticipated drilling campaign in the Falklands.

The note from Merchant Securities was in response to the spudding of the Darwin well on January 31. This is the first ever deepwater well in the South Falkland Basin, while the second well drilled by Borders & Southern is targeting the Stebbing prospect.
This drill programme is being carried out further south of the area that Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) and Desire Petroleum (LON:DES) have been exploring.
In the report, Long repeated his ‘buy’ recommendation and a target price of 218.9 pence per share, representing an upside of over 200 percent to the current share price.

Long’s target price is based on and oil price of US$105 per barrel and a cash flow valuation of Darwin and Stebbing and takes into account the success chance estimates for each prospect.

Long said he likes the Darwin well the best from a risk perspective.
The second well is riskier, said Long, while noting that it is targeting 710 million barrels of recoverable oil compared to the P50 estimate – which means the oil has a 50 percent chance of being produced - of 300 million barrels in the Darwin prospect.

Long said the recoverable reserve estimate for Darwin could increase to 760 million barrels if the reservoir is full of oil from the gas-oil contact to the spill point.

“The wells being drilled by Borders & Southern are considered risky, even by the standards of exploration risk. We have incorporated our best estimate of the geological risks into our target price,” said Long.

The analyst also noted that the wells are targeting two structural traps, which are considered to present lower risk than stratigraphic traps when exploring in frontier basins.

The company is fully funded for the drilling campaign, which is estimated to cost US$150 million.

The results of the Darwin well are expected in mid-March, while the Stebbing results will likely be available in April.

A little reminder of what Mirabaud said earlier....

.......................With the Darwin prospect alone worth £11/shr, we rate this stock as a BUY, with a price target of 150p...................

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I'd like to see a nice steady rise to 80p by mid-next week, followed by news later next week or Monday 23rd latest.

buy on the rumour (i shan't) and then sell before the result .... you can always buy back in if bor strike it very lucky

Lovely stock, cynic! Can you afford to be out? I don't usually punt the highly speculative drillers, but have done very nicely out of RKH and can afford a little wager on this one. There will be a lot of teeth gnashing should they hit & you miss the boat!!!!

I think the correct term is 'afford to be in' as being out costs 'nowt'.... Just pulled Neptune Collonges in the Grand National sweep stake, I figure BOR has a better chance than my horse!

well we have had quite a few dusters lately hope they can surprise us all.

i shan't gnash my teeth even once for i already hld rkh which will benefit too but not be TOO badly hit in the event of the expected duster

Sp's just starting to rise.....there will be rumours coming soon....no doubt !......the good thing is that this is just the first of five.....and in the worst case : put your losses on FOGL if this does not come up with the black stuff.....well that's my plan anyway....

If (and of course its a big if) the rumours of them just striking gas are correct, this means they are at the moment only in the upper part of the target zone.

Best case is gas top and oil bottom.

So there might not be news next week, could be looking at week commencing 23rd April for news ?