A thread created for the TA of charts on the LSE markets. (aim and plus included)
Beginners and advanced wellcome. Long or short, just post your views and lets
have some positive discussion. FIRE AWAY.

NB, UK indicies and sector charts plus FX can also to be included in posters analysis.

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DAILY MORNING CHARLES STANLEY Traders Bulletin

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RESOURCES

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Not what I expected for to-day,

I had a small amounts running with what I thought wide stop loss, but Av, was challenged.

Bugger Santa!

Ummh

Love your optimism gf, been stopped out of most recent trades. Only spread bets left open are CINE and ITV both March Contracts. Running Limit buys 10 pips above current sp.'s in HWDN, ADN and BA. in the event of a Santa rally.

Chris I kicked ITV out yesterday at a small loss.

Just been looking on advfn everybodys panicking.........way overdone.

Greek election next wed I think. Should be positive.

Only other worry is SP of oil, where the risk is Fracking Companys in the US underwritten by Big Bank lending could and some will go tits up those who are marginal providers leaving Banks with Bad Debt.

So its all down to the BANKS yet again. But its not a recession ,certainly not yet.

Still feel we will get the santa rally a tad late but at the moment market is awash with just fear, and fear of fear.

Sentiment will change, customers should benefit from low oil prices. Chinese may provide stimulus, even lower rates again.

Im cool, its not worrying me, just got to keep calm and wait to pick up all the bargains this silly hysteria will present.

Just got to grin and bare it a little longer.

Japan election on Sunday...

Well thats a plus in that its just days away.

skinny do you see any problems with this and the outcome?.

GF and anyone else, are you looking at any oil co's yet such as TLW / PMO / AFR etc
I'm already in Afren (jumped in too early)

Been trying to do some research on a few ,see what they have hedged etc and how much damage will lower oil prices do to these companies

Interested in other peoples point of view here as oil could fall further .

GF - the Japanese election seems to be a non event in terms of outcome :-

Ahead of election win, Japan's Abe pivots away from painful reforms

Always amazes me when you hear about people fishing what they regard as bargain oil stocks when prices fall. These bargain stocks are so called as investors value the oil they produce at a higher rate to what the market is currently paying and are gambling that oil prices will at some point return to highs. For my part when oil prices start to rise and I want at least 7 days worth of gain on each day then think about getting in. Right now with the game the Saudis are playing I'd only be looking to short oil stocks. To answer your question Jimmy I bet you can find 10 good reasons why oil prices have fallen and will continue to do so on Google within 5 minutes. But you won't find the reverse.

Take that as a no then Shortie ,i suppose you think oil will continue down or stay down for quite a while .

Not an oily investor Jimmy , sorry I avoid them because of the risk.

Theres an article up on Winnys site about one of the stocks you mentioned.

just wait ill get it.

I should think though that Shortie will be right with awaiting confirmation which im a big believer in.

Here we are Jimmy........

http://www.shareprophets.com/views/9487/tullow-oil-shares-offer-plenty-of-long-term-upside

Jimmy, wait until you start hearing that wells have been shut in as they are uneconomical or that governments are subsidising the oil sector in a country... You'll know then that supply is falling as a result of low oil prices. It might take 6 months for the effects to be fully felt but your currently ahead of the game right now. I'm shorting oil products on and off so wouldn't tell you to buy oil equities at the moment.

Why don't you look at utilities and power generators for a better investment right now. The news has been full of 'the lights going out' stories which tells you this market is at opposite polls to oil a market of having high demand low supply with power. You'll also find some attractive yields...

Have a look at these DYOH

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-2871263/Drax-shares-fall-UK-plan-change-biomass-subsidies.html

Thanks GF but you have to sign in to read ..

Ok will do ,cheers Shortie .

I held DRX a couple of years back

Have a look at this site also Jimmy...

http://www.energy-uk.org.uk/publication/124-research-and-reports/4921-electricitywholesalemarketreportnovember2014-pdf.html

well called cynic even if you are such an arsehole and didn't make the dosh you should have done

Will do Shortie .

Imagine talking about cynic like that !!

thought it about time i had a pat on the back :-)

i think there may well be a chance to make some money on long dow this afternoon, but i shall hold fire for now

Yep well done Cyners.........why what have you done?........sorry, did you mean the indicies 3 stop orders??? if so very well done, and yep think the DOW will turn positive later in the DOW session.

Jimmy sorry mate just been to get the xmas plonk heres that article opened but remember Shorties wisdom.

Tullow Oil shares offer plenty of long term upside
By Gary Newman | Thursday 11 December 2014


Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from ShareProphets). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Some of you will think that I’ve taken leave of my senses to even be looking at anything in the oil sector at the moment.

But then the same could be said in early 2009 with anyone considering investing in banking, financial or mining stocks, and they certainly didn’t do too badly when they recovered and yielded some of the biggest returns we’ve seen on FTSE100 and 250 companies in a long time.

Although there currently seems to be no bottom in sight for oil – I had some support penciled in around $64, which was hit today – it would seem that most of the bad news is now out of the way.

Especially following today’s announcement by OPEC that it expects demand for 2015 to be even lower than previously forecast and the fact that these low prices will have to have an effect on the US producers sometime soon (applications for new licences are down already).

Taking all that into account, and the fact that oil is needed for so many things, it is hard to see how it can remain at these levels for any length of time.

So I’m happy to look at some of the producers that have had large amounts wiped off of their market cap in recent months, and see them as good recovery plays even if there is more pain still to come in the shorter term.

Tullow Oil (TLW) would definitely fit the bill and would have to be near the top of anyone’s list, having had over £4 billion wiped off of its value since the summer, and has hit a low point around 380p this week.

The company had seen rapid growth over the last decade and now operates in 22 countries, with average net production during the first half of 2014 at 78,400boepd, and with projects in place to further increase that into 2015 and beyond.

Uganda has played a big part in its success so far and looks likely to carry on doing so, but the Jubilee field in Ghana and its TEN project there will also have a significant effect on production growth – production from West Africa alone is expected to top 100kboepd by 2017.

It also has numerous other projects at the exploration or appraisal stages, but in light of current oil prices it will be focusing its investment – expected to be $2 billion in 2015 - on production and development assets, and utilising the 1.4 billion barrels of reserves (369mmboe) and resources it had at the end of June 2014. What is spent on exploration will mainly be in East Africa and is expected to be in the region of $300 million.

Tullow has also hedged some of its future production, and at the end of October had 33,500bopd hedged at $90.23, with further hedges at around the $90 mark going into 2017. It also has 4.98mmscfd of gas hedged for 2015 at 4.98p/therm.

Like many producers at a similar stage net debt is quite high, and is expected to be $3.2 billion by the end of this year, but it still has $2.3 billion of free cash and available from its debt facility.

Tullow has been paying a dividend – albeit just 4p/share for H1 2014 – even though operating profit has dropped significantly, largely down to the amount that has been spent on exploration.

So although it is easy to see why the falling oil price has had such a big impact, both on today’s share price and the company’s future plans, it is reacting to that by keeping spending under control without damaging its growth.

For me it is a buy, just don’t be surprised to see it fall lower though in the short term before recovering.