New Projects and good prospects. will be the winner in 2004. IMO
25p in early 2004

Looks as though Friday's high of 17p could be tested again.

sure do hope so

could someone give regular updates on sales v buys, please, I cant access it at work. Thanks

xmortal: 3 million buys, 2.7 million sells and 693K unknown

Thanks Grevis2

grevis2, are you into petrel resources as well as all the others?, if you are read my messages on the petrel thread
dexter

Hi all.

Bought Petro shares back in November. Don't ask me why but I have a hunch Petroceltic is going to be big, very big and are going to rocket soon! I hope and pray!

Further to my post on Thursday night, the price has now got below the upper bollinger band. The price will consolidate around 14 pence now.

Thanks Sue. Will you consider a punt on this one??

For now! and then? Full steam ahead!

Hi Xmortal, not yet. I will wait for the price to consolidate so that the price can build at a certain base for future rises and the uptrend to continue. The RSI is still in overbought territory.

Hi SueHelen

Analysis looks great but what happens when the unexpected happens? Do you have to start from scratch again?

Hi there, TA goes out of the window if news comes. That is the basic principle.

Thanks! Just hope the unexpected happens then. Still have that hunch!

OPEC to keep grip as oil supply lags demand
Tue 13 July, 2004 12:15



By Jonathan Leff

LONDON (Reuters) - The world's dependence on OPEC's oil is expected to increase again next year, supporting cartel efforts to keep prices high as robust demand growth outpaces non-OPEC output, a Reuters survey has found.

Demand growth is likely to climb by 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) next year, well in advance of extra non-OPEC supply of just one million bpd, according to a survey of 13 analysts.

"The narrative is that demand is weaker than this year, but non-OPEC supply growth will still not be able to meet it," said Roger Diwan, managing director of the Washington DC-based Petroleum Finance Company.

This means the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which produces about a third of the world's oil, should have little difficult maintaining its grip on markets, keeping inventories low to extend an oil-price rally into a sixth year.

Many analysts now expect the challenge for OPEC to be less one of maintaining a floor for prices than managing to keep up with robust demand growth in the face of limited spare capacity.

"Our view is that OPEC...doesn't have a lot of spare capacity to bring this market down," said Jeff Currie, head of Goldman Sachs' global commodities research.

Demand next year is forecast to rise to about 83 million bpd, up from a mean base of 81.2 million bpd this year, while non-OPEC supply climbs to 50.8 million bpd, the survey found.

Estimates on outright levels differed depending on varied baseline assumptions for this year. The range of demand growth forecasts varied from 1.4 to 2.4 million bpd, while non-OPEC supply growth was pegged between 700,000 bpd and 1.4 million bpd.

The International Energy Agency releases its forecasts for 2005 on Tuesday.

PRICES TO STAY HIGH

Demand growth is seen surging 2.3 million bpd in 2004, the fastest in 24 years, according to the IEA's last monthly report. Non-OPEC supplies, however, are rising only by 1.2 million bpd.

"Even though OPEC's market share is not going up as much in 2005 as this year, the upward pressure on prices probably remains," said Deutsche Bank analyst Adam Sieminski.

That is in part because the anticipated surge in non-cartel production that had once been forecast for next year appears to have fizzled.

Some major West African and Caspian oil mega-projects are taking longer than expected, and the outlook for the former Soviet Union as a whole now appears bleaker than before, particularly given the threat to major producer YUKOS.

"Going forward, Russia's growth profile is a critical element in a supply side that is looking increasingly challenged in keeping up with demand," said Barclays Capital in a report.

Last week the U.S. Department of Energy downgraded its 2005 supply forecast for the former Soviet Union, a major engine for non-OPEC growth, by 500,000 bpd to 11.5 million bpd in this month's short-term outlook.

It now expects only 500,000 bpd growth from the region this year. This has in turn pushed its total non-OPEC supply growth forecast for 2005 down to 1.1 million bpd from 1.5 million bpd.

Meeting another year of two-percent-plus demand growth will depend on a continuing economic recovery in the United States and growth from China, which has been the primary engine for this year's surge, analysts say.

"The question is whether continuing robust economic growth is consistent with continuing high oil prices," said Steve Turner, oil analyst with Commerzbank.

so for the unitiated in all this - is it worth staying in this one currently as showing a loss as bought in c16 - expected to get to 20p?

Yes, for Heaven's sake stay in IMO. There should be some exitement as the start of drilling is announced next month with an almost inevitable price rise to at least 15+, hopefully more.

That is when I hope to top slice some profit on half my holding.

These are a hell of a good bet - if they don't come good on the first well (and oil is known to be present) they have another up their sleeve in Tunisia, not to mention Italy and the Irish Sea. You could be kicking yourself if you sell now unless you are well in profit and want to gamble on further price drops in the near future.

I agree!! Hold on there!! I bought last November and convinced we will all reap the rewards for our patience and commitment to what I consider will be of the true success stories of 2004!! Since November, PCI have been climbing steadily, ableit slowly at times. I was slightly concerned they were racing ahead over the last two weeks or so and although have fallen back, they are now at an excellent base to start climbing again, sensibly (that's until we hear of their drilling programme which more should be known sometime next month). From there on, history!!!! I have that hunch, hold tight,keep simling, as this is going to be a real winner and a big one too!!

US stocks turn lower as oil price jumps
By Elizabeth Wine in New York
Published: July 14 2004 13:56 | Last Updated: July 14 2004 19:36


US markets turned lower in afternoon trade as investors reacted to a jump in the oil price and refreshed terror fears, and continued to fret about disappointing guidance from Intel and an unexpected dip in retail sales.


With a few hours left in the session, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.1 per cent at 10,237.86, while the S&P 500 was off fractionally at 1,114.91. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.3 per cent at 1,925.16.

Oil prices leapt above $40 a barrel on reports the FBI warned local law enforcement agencies that recent overseas terrorist attacks "highlight terrorists' interests in targeting energy-related infrastructures."