http://www.platts.com/weblog/oilblog/2012/01/13/post_6.html
The Barrel
Could Sinopec be Gulf Keystone's mystery suitor?
By Tamsin Carlisle on January 13, 2012 1:02 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
Takeover intrigue is swirling around Bermuda-registered Gulf Keystone Petroleum after the company's market value surged to a record GBP2.28 billion ($3.51 billion) in hectic trading earlier this week on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.
The stock has since retreated on profit-taking, with most investors apparently none the wiser about who might be lining up an offer for Gulf Keystone or its giant Shaikan heavy-oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan.
The chief suspects include some of the world's biggest international oil companies, with US-based ExxonMobil and Chevron heading the list.
Genel Energy, the Anglo-Turkish independent led by former BP CEO Tony Hayward, also has been proposed by some as possibly preparing a bid.
The FTSE company, formed in November through a merger between UK investment vehicle Vallares and Turkey's Genel Enerji, happens to be Gulf Keystone's partner in Kurdistan's Ber Bahr exploration block, on trend with Shaikan. Genel puts the untested resource potential of the block at 1.5 billion barrels of oil, Gulf Keystone disclosed on Monday.
Gulf Keystone itself set off the day-long stock market frenzy with a cryptic public statement pointing to the contractual validity of Kurdish Regional Government options to farm out its carried interests in Shaikan and other oil blocks to third parties. Otherwise, the company is acting coy.
Reached late Tuesday by Platts, Gulf Keystone CEO Todd Kozel would say only that any development potentially affecting the company's share price would be announced through "proper channels".
Missing in action
KRG officials have been unreachable. Key members of the regional government's natural resources department remain missing in action, their multiple cell phones with Iraqi and UK numbers turned off. The whereabouts of Gulf Keystone's country manager for Kurdistan is likewise unknown, even to his friends.
Are government and company officials huddled in a meeting at a secret location? All signs point in that general direction, but what precise geographical location would that be?
Ruled out
For starters, Genel's London head office can be crossed off the list. The high-flying start-up with about $2 billion of cash reserves is well capitalized for what it is.: a small, cash-flow driven independent oil producer. But at this point it has neither the financial nor tehcnical depth to take on the full-field development of Shaikan, a world-class deposit of 10 billion barrels or more of heavy crude.
Rather, the post-merger Genel is tightly focused on realizing the significant upside potential of its existing assets, including its 25% stake in Kurdistan's first producing oil field, Tawke. On Tuesday, Genel said a new independent appraisal had boosted Tawke's estimated proven and probable oil reserves by 78% to more than half a billion barrels.
Also off the list for now is Chevron's global headquarters in San Ramon, California.
The international supermajor is not among those, including rival ExxonMobil, that have signed services agreements with Baghdad to develop and rehabilitate Iraq's large southern oilfields, so might pursue production sharing deals with the KRG with fewer political risks. Baghdad considers the KRG's contracts illegal and has blacklisted companies signing them from bidding on projects in the rest of Iraq.
But sources close to Chevron have told Platts that the company is not interested in doing business in any part of Iraq.
France's Total, which like Chevron and ExxonMobil has plenty of experience in exploiting heavy crude, has also declared a lack of interest in Shaikan, ruling out takeover discussions in Paris.
That leaves ...
ExxonMobil, which reportedly has an exploration and production license for a Kurdish block adjacent to Shaikan, is another matter. It characteristically stated to Platts Tuesday that it never comments on market rumours.
Indeed, it has yet to confirm the KRG's landmark announcement in November that the company had signed contracts for six Kurdish exploration blocks.
However, ExxonMobil typically holds its cards exceedingly close to its chest, so it is too early to conclude that there are no signposts pointing to Irving, Texas.
But what if they point in exactly the opposite direction...to Beijing?
Chinese refining giant Sinopec is Beijing's chosen vehicle for oil investments in Kurdistan, leaving opportunities in the rest of Iraq for other state-controlled oil enterprises such as China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation.
So far, Baghdad has not taken the drastic step of banning governments whose state-affiliated petroleum entities have signed KRG contracts from doing business in the rest of Iraq.
Sinopec gained its initial foothold in Kurdistan in 2009 by acquiring the Kurdish operations of Addax Petroleum, which was Genel Enerji's partner in developing Kurdistan's second producing field, Taq Taq. It is no secret that the Chinese company is seeking further acquisitions in the region, for which it is willing to pay handsomely.
Moreover, Sinopec operates huge heavy oil refineries in China, and since 2005 has been learning about the upstream end of the business through international partnerships with heavy-oil producers.
In June 2011, Sinopec and Norway's Statoil brought Brazil's technically challenging Peregrino offshore heavy-oil field into production. Also in 2011, Sinopec invested $4/65 billion to buy ConocoPhillip's 9% stake in Canada's biggest oil sands project, Syncrude, after serving a six-year apprenticeship in the country's oil sands sector through a smaller deal.
The KRG might welcome Sinopec as a potential operator for the Shaikan oil field, as China could in time become a valued customer for Kurdish crude.
For his part, Gulf Keystone's Kozel, with limited technical and resources at his disposal, will be looking to cash out on Shaikan with the biggest possible pot of money to fund his next business venture.
The stars seem well aligned for Sinopec to bid for Gulf Keystone or its biggest asset.
Ever enigmatic, ExxonMobil may be eyeing the action, waiting for Beijing to make the first move.