http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

500K bopd + option for another 500K bopd pipeline.

Looks to me like someone is going to make a bid for GKP's share of the Shaikan field as the minimum, perhaps the whole company at top level.

This would tie in with rumours of 900p a share (which would be someone like Exxon taking Shaikan and allowing GKP to continue with their other prospects) and then rumours of 1400p or more, which would be a simple total takeover of GKP.

Gibby - How does it go????????
YeeeeeeeeeeeeeeHHaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!
KKeeeeeerrrrrrrrrrcccccchhhhhhiiiiiinnnnnnng!!!!

ditto that adacol :-0))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))))

Sat on hands first thing as panic set in when seeing sp go to300p want to buy back what I sold yesterday.......hope it comes back to normal around 9ish

:) Lovely

Can it break 300p today..?

286p now rush gone through

http://www.platts.com/weblog/oilblog/2012/01/13/post_6.html

The Barrel
Could Sinopec be Gulf Keystone's mystery suitor?
By Tamsin Carlisle on January 13, 2012 1:02 AM | No Comments | No TrackBacks
Takeover intrigue is swirling around Bermuda-registered Gulf Keystone Petroleum after the company's market value surged to a record GBP2.28 billion ($3.51 billion) in hectic trading earlier this week on the AIM market of the London Stock Exchange.

The stock has since retreated on profit-taking, with most investors apparently none the wiser about who might be lining up an offer for Gulf Keystone or its giant Shaikan heavy-oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan.

The chief suspects include some of the world's biggest international oil companies, with US-based ExxonMobil and Chevron heading the list.

Genel Energy, the Anglo-Turkish independent led by former BP CEO Tony Hayward, also has been proposed by some as possibly preparing a bid.

The FTSE company, formed in November through a merger between UK investment vehicle Vallares and Turkey's Genel Enerji, happens to be Gulf Keystone's partner in Kurdistan's Ber Bahr exploration block, on trend with Shaikan. Genel puts the untested resource potential of the block at 1.5 billion barrels of oil, Gulf Keystone disclosed on Monday.

Gulf Keystone itself set off the day-long stock market frenzy with a cryptic public statement pointing to the contractual validity of Kurdish Regional Government options to farm out its carried interests in Shaikan and other oil blocks to third parties. Otherwise, the company is acting coy.

Reached late Tuesday by Platts, Gulf Keystone CEO Todd Kozel would say only that any development potentially affecting the company's share price would be announced through "proper channels".

Missing in action

KRG officials have been unreachable. Key members of the regional government's natural resources department remain missing in action, their multiple cell phones with Iraqi and UK numbers turned off. The whereabouts of Gulf Keystone's country manager for Kurdistan is likewise unknown, even to his friends.

Are government and company officials huddled in a meeting at a secret location? All signs point in that general direction, but what precise geographical location would that be?

Ruled out

For starters, Genel's London head office can be crossed off the list. The high-flying start-up with about $2 billion of cash reserves is well capitalized for what it is.: a small, cash-flow driven independent oil producer. But at this point it has neither the financial nor tehcnical depth to take on the full-field development of Shaikan, a world-class deposit of 10 billion barrels or more of heavy crude.

Rather, the post-merger Genel is tightly focused on realizing the significant upside potential of its existing assets, including its 25% stake in Kurdistan's first producing oil field, Tawke. On Tuesday, Genel said a new independent appraisal had boosted Tawke's estimated proven and probable oil reserves by 78% to more than half a billion barrels.

Also off the list for now is Chevron's global headquarters in San Ramon, California.

The international supermajor is not among those, including rival ExxonMobil, that have signed services agreements with Baghdad to develop and rehabilitate Iraq's large southern oilfields, so might pursue production sharing deals with the KRG with fewer political risks. Baghdad considers the KRG's contracts illegal and has blacklisted companies signing them from bidding on projects in the rest of Iraq.

But sources close to Chevron have told Platts that the company is not interested in doing business in any part of Iraq.

France's Total, which like Chevron and ExxonMobil has plenty of experience in exploiting heavy crude, has also declared a lack of interest in Shaikan, ruling out takeover discussions in Paris.

That leaves ...

ExxonMobil, which reportedly has an exploration and production license for a Kurdish block adjacent to Shaikan, is another matter. It characteristically stated to Platts Tuesday that it never comments on market rumours.

Indeed, it has yet to confirm the KRG's landmark announcement in November that the company had signed contracts for six Kurdish exploration blocks.

However, ExxonMobil typically holds its cards exceedingly close to its chest, so it is too early to conclude that there are no signposts pointing to Irving, Texas.

But what if they point in exactly the opposite direction...to Beijing?

Chinese refining giant Sinopec is Beijing's chosen vehicle for oil investments in Kurdistan, leaving opportunities in the rest of Iraq for other state-controlled oil enterprises such as China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Offshore Oil Corporation.

So far, Baghdad has not taken the drastic step of banning governments whose state-affiliated petroleum entities have signed KRG contracts from doing business in the rest of Iraq.

Sinopec gained its initial foothold in Kurdistan in 2009 by acquiring the Kurdish operations of Addax Petroleum, which was Genel Enerji's partner in developing Kurdistan's second producing field, Taq Taq. It is no secret that the Chinese company is seeking further acquisitions in the region, for which it is willing to pay handsomely.

Moreover, Sinopec operates huge heavy oil refineries in China, and since 2005 has been learning about the upstream end of the business through international partnerships with heavy-oil producers.

In June 2011, Sinopec and Norway's Statoil brought Brazil's technically challenging Peregrino offshore heavy-oil field into production. Also in 2011, Sinopec invested $4/65 billion to buy ConocoPhillip's 9% stake in Canada's biggest oil sands project, Syncrude, after serving a six-year apprenticeship in the country's oil sands sector through a smaller deal.

The KRG might welcome Sinopec as a potential operator for the Shaikan oil field, as China could in time become a valued customer for Kurdish crude.

For his part, Gulf Keystone's Kozel, with limited technical and resources at his disposal, will be looking to cash out on Shaikan with the biggest possible pot of money to fund his next business venture.

The stars seem well aligned for Sinopec to bid for Gulf Keystone or its biggest asset.

Ever enigmatic, ExxonMobil may be eyeing the action, waiting for Beijing to make the first move.

If there is a bid coming it looks like £4 would be an absolute minimum !.

Good morning champers,a bit of a lie in this am.Excellent news and another 10 i see the SP has added 10p,it all seems to be coming together now? Be interesting S4 and BB results are known?

morning cyril, dog will have crossed legs.,.

Trying get my head around this mornings news,so "2 pipelines 0f 500k",1MILLION BOPD.
Sounds like they might have a massive find.lol?

what will happen this afternoon - profit taking - or buy more for monday?? or both - profit taking looks risky at this stage gla

and luncktime??

Possible profit taking later today, if we stay above 270p that will be great for the week !!

proselenies,
A great since the start to the year,is it worth risking being out over the weekend,news coming thick and fast.

cyril, I am not expecting anything too short term, but certainly something in the coming weeks.

Either way its been excellent gains so far, and more to come.

That was my view( not expecting anything too short term),so bought PTR expecting
a profit with which tp purchase more of these.doh So i'll just hang on in there.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=OiHedeZkeJE#!

From Gramacho:

I have refrained from commenting on the speculation and rumours, even though there appears to be more than a grain of truth in some and I absolutely subscribe to the views that Todd will come under increasing pressure to part with GKP to suit the strategic needs of others.

I prefer to deal in fact and the fact that GKP is even contemplating 1 MM bbl/d pipeline capacity is VERY significant. GKP is not requesting this optionality on a whim and contractors should not be asked to conduct tender work without there being a possibility that the work will lead to something.

So what is behind the request for costs of additional capacity? GKP is not the operator of Ber Bahr or of Akri Bijeel. It is not its role to seek pipeline quotes for these assets. Also both assets are two years behind Shaikan in terms of development planning and we haven’t even been officially notified of a BB discovery. Likewise Sheikh Adi needs more wells to confirm its potential.

This suggests GKP sees the potential for substantially more than 500 k bbl/d from Shaikan alone. So I agree with zengas this could point to a higher reserves number than we have been considering. My base case profile, constructed as far back as Feb 2010, has 215 k bbl/d in 2017, 420 k bbl/d in 2020 (which tied in well with JGs interview comments) and subsequently peaks at 630,000 bbl/d recovering 3.3 Bn bbl. The annual peak rate is 7% of field ultimate recovery. Producing the field at a higher rate based on the same reserves could be questionable from a reservoir management perspective.

At the very least it points to consideration being given to a massive acceleration of development timing. There is no point in seeking a quote for material for a second line if fabrication is 3 or 4 years away. Contractors are not going to hold prices that long and may have difficulty in formulating escalation clauses that both parties could agree to over a long time frame.

How could GKP possibly need that capacity relatively quickly? Only the injection of enormous amounts of funds into drilling activities could justify a second pipeline in the near term. GKP would not procure material for a second line only to have it sit there for 3 years.

If this request for a quote for a second line has a serious possibility of implementation it has to reflect the aspirations of a supermajor; it cannot possibly reflect what GKP plans to do by going it alone. So you have to ask is GKP getting guidance from interested parties as to what provisions to make to facilitate a favourable hand over of the reigns?

What pipelines may tell us? It could be a case of what Todd and JG are trying to tell us!

Regards and GLA

Gramacho