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Hi Proselenes,

This was an excellent article, showing that on average the only price for oil is UP.

Well, its day 30 now of the drill, out of a 45 day program which includes testing and P&A.

If rumours are to be believed they lost a week whilst a component was replaced on the BOP, which puts it at day 23 actual.

You would expect perhaps 9 days of the 45 to be for testing, sampling and P&A, so day 36 would be your TD date.

So, if they did lose a week we are 13 days from potential news.

If they did not lose a week we are 6 days from potential news.

Got to watch BOR volume from next week, from 5th of March, any leaks of good or bad news should see rampant buying or rampant selling either next week or the week after.

3 million volume or over on a single day will be worth looking into.............

Going to be fun now.

Needs a good solid break through 70p - then its blue sky.

Buying is strong on BOR and FOGL, not looking like PI's, they seem to be the sells.

Possibly now, as its getting in target range of BOR result, a few II's opening up long CFD positions - which should lead to gradual teasing up of BOR and FOGL now, fingers crossed.

With the sudden increase in buying yesterday I am intrigued.

Normally the rig stays within a 5M zone of the drill site, but yesterday she went off for a circuit around the site, perfect square, twice, now she is back on the drill site and within the 5M zone.

Looks like the rig did re-entry yesterday and is now drilling ahead again, if you zoom in on the link.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?mmsi=308243000¢erx=-57.75184¢ery=-51.57723&zoom=10&type_color=9

So the buying of yesterday could be an indication as the map shows, drilling ahead again after the BOP pipe issue.

That would mean 2 weeks lost due to one of the pipes being broken on the BOP.

16th Feb to 29th Feb downtime.

13 days of no drilling.

Taking the 45 day schedule and saying day 36 should be TD ahead of testing and then P&A and we are now at day 31.

If 13 days lost we are looking at being on day 18 real time. That would mean 18 more days to go or a target for TD of circa 19th March.

Therefore volume increases should be watched out for from Monday 12th March onwards IMO.

Anything over 3M volume on BOR will be a leak IMV.

With the sudden increase in buying yesterday I am intrigued.

Normally the rig stays within a 5M zone of the drill site, but yesterday she went off for a circuit around the site, perfect square, twice, now she is back on the drill site and within the 5M zone.

Looks like the rig did re-entry yesterday and is now drilling ahead again, if you zoom in on the link.

http://www.marinetraffic.com/ais/default.aspx?mmsi=308243000¢erx=-57.75184¢ery=-51.57723&zoom=10&type_color=9

So the buying of yesterday could be an indication as the map shows, drilling ahead again after the BOP pipe issue.

That would mean 2 weeks lost due to one of the pipes being broken on the BOP.

16th Feb to 29th Feb downtime.

13 days of no drilling.

Taking the 45 day schedule and saying day 36 should be TD ahead of testing and then P&A and we are now at day 31.

If 13 days lost we are looking at being on day 18 real time. That would mean 18 more days to go or a target for TD of circa 19th March.

Therefore volume increases should be watched out for from Monday 12th March onwards IMO.

Anything over 3M volume on BOR will be a leak IMV.

Given the estimated 10-25% chance of success and the worries about the possibilities of spills + the inherrent problems of operating down there I have hopped out, but rewards favour the brave!!

I have come out, no doubt too early, but at a profit and while I am miffed I have missed out a bit, I feel more relaxed without the worries!

and fools rush in etc etc

I think that FOGL has something but BOR I'm not so sure ...if BOR has something then FOGL with similar geology will rocket as well.....just as risky as before Rockhopper hit the black stuff but much less risk for FOGL due to the huge area that they have in which to drill....best to have more FOGL than BOR if you take in the risks involved.....I'm in both but by golly it's a risk.....but I'm prepared for disappointment.....

I think both are as risky as each other, lets face it both companies have limited finance to drill with before being required to raise funds!

Shortie, with both of them owning 100% of potentially BILLIONS of recoverable barrels, they can easily farm out.

This is the advantage of having BILLIONS of barrels potential and low share prices - farming out adds value as the value is not in the price.

Unlike other companies who have high share prices and smaller finds, when they farm out they can lose value as they are giving away something thats in the price.

It's just rf getting pre-RNS nerves as usual! We can usually tell when TD is getting close as his posts get dizzier & dizzier!!! ;o) [can you still say 'golly' these days?]

By golly miss molly !....(great song...a classic)....if you start banning that...nuts....getting very nervous....could be fantastic or not....

It is understood that the Argentinians have managed to get hold of a second hand drilling rig ready for when they get possession of the FI fields,

Note. I would have just posted the picture, but don't know how

http://www.wired.com/science/discoveries/news/2008/05/dayintech_0526

.

Greece deal done, should be a strong blue day ahead, hopefully lots of buying of BOR and FOGL ahead.

Mirabaud comment on BOR :

.........Seven years after being awarded the acreage, Borders & Southern is on the cusp of finding out if the wait has been worthwhile. The Darwin exploration well spudded on 1 February and is targeting a potential 760 million barrels of oil – the likely 45 days of operations would see the drill bit reach the reservoir in early March, with an announcement expected by the middle of the month. As expected, Borders’ share price has ticked up over the past weeks and months in anticipation and, although mindful of the somewhat binary nature of pure exploration plays, we like the acreage and the management, and are confident that Borders has the technical understanding to unlock the potential of the basin. With the Darwin prospect alone worth £11/shr, we rate this stock as a BUY, with a price target of 150p............

Very low volume, not even a million shares traded today so far.

Just read a letter in the Telegraph from an English couple who have been spending few weeks in Argentina.
Although very wary before and on arrival regarding how they would be treated, they were very surprised when the local people on discovering that they were English, treated them in a very friendly way.
It appears that several locals explained that the average Argentinian, had no problem with the Falklands wanting to stay British, and their main grievance was with the Argentinian government and the high inflation rate.

I have no reason to doubt that this is how the Argentinian people feel, although of course there will always be a minority (those that get on TV and in the headlines) who want the Falklands to be taken over by their country.

The reason why I don't doubt this is because I saw the same reactions in Ireland in the late 1970's when the troubles were still near to peak levels.
From 1975 to 1979 I spent several month in Ireland, just south of the border.
When the locals discovered we were English, they went out of their way to treat us friendly.
In fact sometimes it became a bit embarrassing, with us being treated to several pints in a local pub with many apologising for the actions of some of their countrymen.
I must add that they were always very careful who was about when they talked or/and were near to us, as the trust between themselves was always down to how well they knew each other.
I appreciate that many on here do not wish to see any post that mentions Argentina and the Falklands, but this small story in the Telegraph coupled with my own experiences in Ireland, probably says more than many of the more negative headlines put together.