http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

what Hub is really saying is that, though he knows no more than the rest of us, he'll pretend he does and ramp like crazy

Must say I prefer his ramping to pro's.........one can hope.,.

http://www.stockopedia.co.uk/content/how-giving-up-day-trading-could-make-you-160bn-richer-63234/

this is just a re-hash of the rns but it still sounds very good

Gulf Keystone Petroleum has invited bidders to build a pipeline that would allow the much-watched oil & gas company to export vast supplies of black gold from its key Kurdistan field.

This pipeline would have the capacity to handle 500,000 barrels a day. There is also an option to build a second pipeline, of similar capacity, which would ramp up production to a million barrels a day. That would be more than 1 per cent of the world's oil needs and explains why super-majors are running the slide rule over the company.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/bidders-sought-to-build-kurdistan-pipeline-6289699.html

That would be more than 1 per cent of the world's oil needs

Theirs a lot of posts this weekend,but for me the above coupled with MAJORS sniffing around,has more CLOUT?

The size of possible bids is an issue raised may times,well for me i will gladly accept(£8(hoping it's more)for a %age of my holdings(using our CGT allowance to the max).
At £8/10 the rewards to gain become a different game,i must consider is their other
companies which will double in value(£8 to£17?) and i believe that their is?
I also think that many get starry eyed by putting a £ to the SP,8p to 17p gives the same rewards and thire are many wuth less political risks out there.

aimho

http://www.iraqenergy.org/news/?detailof=4377&content=Oil-and-Gas-Law-Will-Be-Passed-Without-Iraqiya-If-Needed-Says-Committee

http://www.iraqenergy.org/news/?detailof=4380&content=ExxonMobil-KRG-Deal-'on-Track'

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-15/iraqi-sea-oil-terminal-will-be-ready-on-jan-25-jaafar-says.html

http://i40.tinypic.com/jgtylz.jpg

nice1 - will gkp have sole ownership of this pipeline - i cant remember? cheers

From Scaramouche on the uva bb:

For some time, I have been conscious of the statement often mentioned on this board and made by Marius Kloppers. CEO of BHP Billiton, the largest mining company in the world. As a reminder, in July 2011 he stated that their < Billiton’s> $12.1 billion bid for Petrohawk Energy Corp. should be valued against the gas and oil assets in the ground rather than the U.S. shale gas company's share price”.

I have also been constantly aware that, as far back as 31 August 2010, the phrase “drill, baby, drill” was coined by broker Daniel Stewart, since when GKP has clearly been trying to ensure that as many drills as possible are happening at the same time.

It is therefore very obvious from these statements that the more oil RESERVES (Assets) that GKP can prove up, the higher should be the real value of the Company. The missing factors for our Valuation are surely then just the DOLLARS PER BARREL OF RESERVES that our suitor(s) might be prepared to pay, and the TIME LEFT for proving it all up.

With this in mind, I find it quite puzzling that many posters on these boards, and even analysts such as the chap from VSA capital in the recent Proactive Investor’s video

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/987

repeatedly attempt to relate the potential return that shareholders might get to the prevailing SP. It makes no sense to me at all!

Anyway, as an exercise, I thought I would take a look at how our assets have risen in recent times and how this could correlate with the many rumours and SP guestimates posted, as well as the claim that Exxon have had the “very best best block in Kurdistan” RESERVED for them.

Although this is quite a long post, I hope you find it interesting....

1. For most of 2010, GKP had just 4.2 BILLION OIP (P50) from Shaikan which, with an estimated one-third (33%) Recovery Factor and a 54.4% Net WI in Shaikan, would have given them Reserves of 750 MILLION.

The oil price was about $75 which would have given us approximately a net $6 per barrel, based on what we understand today. To allow ‘something for the next man’, $4 per barrel could therefore easily have taken us out. A $3 Billion oil reserves valuation, little cash, and return of costs amounting to $200-300 million - and we would have been ‘worth’ about $3.2 billion had the For Sale sign been up. For the then 675 million shares in issue it represented $4.75 per share (or about £3).

*** How many of you can remember how those with a less than positive view on GKP would tell us then that we would be taken over for at best 300p per share? ***

2. Then came the October 2010 placing, taking shares in issue to about 750 million. This was soon followed by a 2.4 BILLION (P50) oil discovery by MOL at Akri-Bijeel, giving us another 100 MILLION of ‘estimated’ reserves, or a new total of 850 MILLION.

The Oil price was heading inexorably for $100 which would give us a net $7.80 profit per barrel. So, if in early 2011 we had upped the sale price valuation to, say, the $5.90 per barrel of reserves implied by the Vallares/Genel merger
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-07/vallares-agrees-to-merge-with-genel-in-2-1-billion-share-deal.html
... GKP’s 850 MILLION of attributable reserves would have become worth about $5 BILLION. Adding recoverable costs and cash in the bank, we would probably then have been looking at a ‘sale’ valuation of $5.5 BILLION (£3.7 billion).... or about £5 per share.

**** And the de-rampers were at it again, proclaiming “you’ll never get more than 500p” ***.

3. We were all however really waiting on Shaikan-2 and, when the results came in April 2011, we saw the OIP figures jump to 7.5 BILLION (P50), and so too our attributable Shaikan reserves to 1.36 BILLION. The TOTAL RESERVES had therefore risen to around 1.46 BILLION, and the oil price was now firmly in the $100+ range.

On that basis, GKP could conceivably have been taken out as follows:

1.46 BILLION reserves x $5.90 per barrel = $8.6 billion (£5.7 billion). Add in cash and recoverable costs totalling £300 million, and you have a total of £6 BILLION... or £8 per share for the 750 million shares then in issue.

*** How often did we then have that supposed ‘pie in the sky’ of 800p drummed into us, I wonder? ***

But then, it was as if everything changed....

4. In JULY, Sanddunes came up with his infamous ‘shafted for £8’ post, and the doom-merchants still insisted that everyone was crazy if they thought we would get that more than £5. Of course, they could have been right had we been looking exclusively at the prevailing SP of about 150p.... but NOT if we based our evaluation on the ASSETS IN THE GROUND.

In AUGUST, we had “preliminary” figures of 1.9 billion OIP (P50) for Oil found at Sheikh Adi. This added about 500 MILLION to our estimated Reserves figures – but the SP went down!

In SEPTEMBER, TK said that our share in Akri-Bijeel was for sale and Ewen hinted that we could expect several hundred million dollars, which would be reasonable for 100 million or so recoverable barrels. But we needed Bekhme results first, and Bekhme-1 seemed to be drilling forever. There was virtually no impact on the SP !

Also in SEPTEMBER, we had an unexpected placing, taking shares in issue to 850 million.... mainly I think because TK wanted the drills to keep turning and our OIP figures to rise – curiously, the SP fell well below the placing price of 140p for quite some time!

*** A total now of nearly TWO BILLION estimated Reserves, £120 million of new funds, and yet we still had a MARKET CAP of only just over £1 BILLION - something clearly didn’t make sense ***.

Then, in OCTOBER we started hearing rumours that Exxon had moved into Kurdistan, and that other majors were likely to follow.

The KRG confirmed the rumour on 13 NOVEMBER 2011 when they told us about the 6 exploration licences Exxon had signed for.... but not about the best block ever that the VSA capital analyst recently said had been “reserved” for them... presumably SHAIKAN!

And also in NOVEMBER, GKP announced a further 3 BILLION upgrade to 10.5 BILLION (P50) at Shaikan, giving about 550 MILLION extra estimated reserves. Perhaps this was designed to remind Exxon and others that big OIP upgrades could happen at any time.

By this time GKP’s total estimated reserves were a staggering 2.5 BILLION, and we would have been ‘worth’ $14.7 billion at $5.90 per barrel of reserves, plus cash and recoverable costs of about $500 million, which converts to somewhere close to £10 BILLION! (Note: Had Bekhme-1 come in as originally expected with a further 200 MILLION of attributable reserves, we might even have been looking more closely at at Nobletrader’s $16.5 Billion bid rumour).

5. On 19 DECEMBER 2012 we saw the famous Mark Leftly article in the Independent on Sunday... which essentially demonstrated the problem for any possible buyer.

In October 2011, GKP could perhaps have been valued at £7 BILLION (800p per share), but the upgrade in November had surely taken it into... “double-figure billions”, eh Todd! No wonder, any ‘sounding out’ was unlikely to have got past first base.

It is interesting too to see our friend from VSA capital popping up again in this article of the same date
http://blogs.wsj.com/deals/2011/12/19/analysts-weigh-exxons-possible-kurdistan-oil-play/

Extract: A bid by ExxonMobil for Kurdistan-focused explorer Gulf Keystone “wouldn’t be out of kilter at all,” says VSA Capital analyst Malcolm Graham-Wood, who points out the 800 pence a share offer price first referenced in an Independent on Sunday article would be at the top end of most valuations.

But was there a time-lag here perhaps, as any possible bid would surely have to take account of the latest upgrade - perhaps an element of Managing our Expectations?

6. NOW, at nearly 2.5 BILLION of reserves.... GKP might be estimated to be worth something like £10 Billion (or $15.5 billion).

But, what is the betting that, in the short-term, what is already known about Shaikan (from SH-4) will take us quickly up to CJ’s $19 billion on that same $5.90 per barrel basis?

Indeed, could the imminent news expected from BB-1 or SH-5 even move us 23% higher towards CJ’s subsequently revised figure?


In conclusion, I can’t help thinking that the apparent change of approach (which seemed to begin in about July 2011 may have signalled a set time-frame.... during which GKP was required to prove up as many reserves as it could. Could that deadline be approaching very fast?

JG said recently he expected another 2 upgrades, which may see us getting the results first from SH-4 and SH-5, and then hopefully SH-6 should be the icing on the cake.

But isn’t it ironic that we spent almost the whole of 2010 and 2011 failing to respond to the FACTS in our RNS’s, and the SP is now only just beginning to react to what seem like albeit credible RUMOURS?

Finally, did anyone notice that our friend from VSA capital also said about Exxon... ”and they wouldn’t have gone in there if the STATE DEPARTMENT had said it was going to be a problem (at 4.10 into the Proactive Investor video”).... just before a sideways glance to the camera which suggested to me that this was the line he really wanted to get in! Are we essentially saying that there is State Department approval for the US Major, as has also been rumoured on here.

Maybe this is what all the rumours are pointing to. Exxon is about to be proclaimed the preferred bidder and their price, just like Tony Hayward’s, is about $5.90 per ‘proved-up’ recoverable barrel.

And maybe, just maybe, we have only a little more time.... before the curtain comes down.
The recent spate of buying, and sequence of recent RNS’s, suggests to me that this could well be the case.

why on earth do so many of you waste time and emotion on other self-serving postings from other BBs? ...... why do you think they know anything more than you guys? ..... THEY DON'T!

Gulf Keystone sees up to $500 mln from oil stake
Mon Jan 16, 2012 7:19am GMT Print | Single Page
LONDON Jan 16 (Reuters) - UK-based oil explorer Gulf Keystone told a conference last week it expected to raise $350-$500 million from the sale of its stake in a Kurdish oil block, according to an analyst's note.

John Gerstenlauer, Chief Operating Officer told a Morgan Stanley investor conference that a data room on the Akri Bijeel block is to be opened next week, and that he expected 10-12 interested parties to participate.

"Gulf Keystone estimates a sale would be finalized by April, with its interest sold for $350-$500m," analysts at the investment bank said.

Gulf Keystone, which says it has found billions of barrels of oil at its Shaikan discovery, said in September it was seeking a buyer for its 20 percent interest in the Akri-Bijeel block to help finance development of other assets.

Hungary's MOL operates the Akri Bijeel block.

http://af.reuters.com/article/energyOilNews/idAFL6E8CG0BZ20120116

cynic i find your post self defeating,you are passing on own views,the very purpose of BBs.Thier are many who have worked in the industry or other areas which can throw some light on the issues/subjects,so i most certainly disagree with you on this.One doesn't have to read them,i certainly don't,try to follow trust and knowledgable posters.

nor i, but by golly they don't half take up a lot of space ..... btw, my view on gkp is and always has been wait and see on this t/o possibility

meanwhile
at least the day traders are having a ball, and yet again i note that the order book is heftily 4:1 bid/offer

Here's Zengas's views on the the JPM post,he's probably one most respected analyist around.


ell, well, well

16th January 2012 Reuters

John Gerstenlauer, Chief Operating Officer told a Morgan Stanley investor conference that a data room on the Akri Bijeel block is to be opened next week, and that he expected 10-12 interested parties to participate.
"Gulf Keystone estimates a sale would be finalized by April, with its interest sold for $350-$500m," analysts at the investment bank said.


Extremely interesting comment by JG

12.8% net of 2.4 billion bls mean OIP not appraised at Akri-Bijeel.
The Bechme well didn't turn up any commercial hydrocarbons.

Using 33% RF = 100 mmbo reserve potential (unappraised)

$350m - $500m expected from 10-12 interested parties.
25p - 36p per share.

The above is what JG expects !
-----------------------------------------------------

Compare that to 51.4% net of 10.5 billion bls OIP at Shaikan.
Substantially appraised and producing.

Using 33% RF = 1781 mmbo reserves (substantially appraised).
445p - 641p share.

Combination of Shaikan and Akri-Bijeel = 470p - 677p.

Above is extremely simplistic as Shaikan is much, much more advanced through appraisal and should indeed be worth a lot more.
There's also the likelihood of 2, or possibly 3 OIP upgrades yet to come from Shaikan.

Nothing allowed for the Sheik-Adi field to be fracced (40%).
Nothing allowed for BerBahr (40%).

Eitther way imo, it's shows how extremely undervalued GKP is at 285p.

PS. the earlier post was long winded, to say the least.

It's on the way down again.

no shit sherlock!

Now Watson behave,back from dog duties.The dip of no great surprise,a chance to
buy un a little cheaper.Tossing over the latest news on AB it's worth looking at the finances,we know they have a large cash reserve,which is increasing with revenue from the 4000bbopd, add up to $500k and $40 for the BIR claw back,makes dor a very healthy picture.
So in a good position if and when bids for SH or the company come in,one other point which came to mind is,that it's unlikely their will be an offer until AB is sorted or at least near conclusion. Plenty of time to complete BB and reserves from S4,with news of S6? thrown in? aimho

Peel Hunt note:
"Since initiating coverage in November 2011, driven by a buoyant market and persistent bid speculation, Gulf Keystone has generated capital growth of 70%, exceeding our RENAV-based target price of 247p/share. Our valuation assumes a net risked recoverable resource of 3,042MMbbls (from Shaikan, Akri-Bijeel, Sheikh Adi and Ber Bahr). In the absence of any new material resource upgrades, confirmation of the much-speculated bid approach or further project de-risking beyond what we had previously assumed, we feel our RENAV still represents fair value. As a result we are changing our recommendation from Buy to Hold."

Yes hold,probably run out of steam for the time being?

Harry jlp is looking tasty?