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This weeks Oil and Gas price monitor from Merchant Securities :

http://www.mediafire.com/?ddmh1qawrnb9w3e

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Results out :

http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=201109071127377967N

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Nothing new in the results at all.

Confirmation that farm out is Q4 2011 at the earliest, meaning Q1 2012 most likely.

......Farmout

Discussions continue with several parties who have expressed an interest in participating in our exploration drilling programme. FOGL has appointed Stellar Energy Advisors to assist with the farmout process. However, the Company does not anticipate concluding any farm out agreement until the fourth quarter of 2011 at the earliest.

Loligo is the biggie and also the 1st well.

Its like a "5 in 1", which is why they have done so many surveys on it.

I would suggest come the 1st BOR drill that FOGL will be in the 100p to 150p range, and that first BOR drill is coming up in late 2011 :)

Someone on the III RKH thread asked what to buy with their RKH profits, this was my reply.


What to buy ? I would suggest FOGL.

I have been putting some of my RKH profits into FOGL, I have 300K FOGL now and am buying more. So why ?

Well, first up, BOR are drilling two wells first and if BOR strike then FOGL goes up. However, if BOR fails then although FOGL will fall it will recover again when they drill Loligo, so its a much safer stock to hold than say BOR.

FOGL is presently just 110m market cap and yet have the biggest amount of billions of barrels potential Compare this to say DES which has nothing and small chances and yet has a 70m market cap. BOR has double the market cap of FOGL and yet smaller potential.

North Basin over South Basin - I do think the majors will be watching the south basin action from FOGL and BOR, if either strike I expect the majors to go for the south, and if both fail then, and only then, will they move in the north basin. The south offer multi-billion recoverable barrels potential and that offers big return on investment, so I believe the big boys will observe the south results first before making any moves.

So that is my reasoning and why I am filling my boots with FOGL while its cheap, once the Leiv Eriksson rig starts its move from Greenland to the South Falklands in November I am sure the price of FOGL and BOR are going to start rising upwards.

And FOGL from the present 50p has the potential of around 100 pounds a share if Loligo comes in very good. Thats a 200 bagger. Its not going to stay cheap for many more months.

As they say, buy low when nobody wants to buy, and sell high when everyone wants to buy.

Short term strategy = AEX (Aminex) for ongoing Nyuni-2 and pending Ntorya-1
Mid term strategy - GKP (Gulf Keystone) for their news in the next 3 to 4 months
Long term strategy = FOGL

Enjoy

Rising well today.

Loligo strikes and FOGL get to retain 60% of it (as BHP have 40% back in rights).

Would mean BHP would finance development and no worries like RKH do on where to get the money from.

FOGL is dirt cheap imo and its going to end this year much higher than where it is now.

sp should move gently north towards end q4 - q1 2012 & q2 interest me more - gl

Good news on JEFF appointment, as FOGL needs more people spreading the story in the months ahead.

http://investing.thisismoney.co.uk/broker-views/

FOGL retained as a BUY by Goldman Sachs with target price of 138p for now, pre drilling.

BOR downgraded to neutral from buy.

TOSH!!!!!

Been downgraded from 1.48p to 138p

Looks likely they will sell the company should they strike oil, no messing around, straight sale.

More than likely to BHP.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-22/falkland-oil-delays-drilling-at-loligo-may-sell-shares-in-2012-ceo-says.html

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indeed - see the argies are sabre rattling again ref banning flights to falklands fron the last remaining route there - in this climate i would expect some more reverse next week here

Nice moves upwards.......... 250p by spudding of Loligo I reckon, more if BOR strike oil first in their 2 drills.

BOR market cap 236 million.

FOGL market cap 114 million.


So FOGL (with more recoverable barrels potential) can double in price and still be cheaper than BOR.

:)

that's not a fair comparison as BOR has more cash in bank. However, fogl is even cheaper adding this metric

BOR has c. 123m ($197m)leaves 113m

FOGL 69m ($110m) leaves 45m

so actually 2.5x cheaper IMO,DYOR etc

I use this metric.

If BOR strikes big oil then FOGL will be over 400p before spudding Loligo.

If BOR strikes not so big oil, but oil, FOGL will be over 250p before spudding Loligo.

If BOR strikes no oil then FOGL will be 50p before spudding of Loligo.

Thats what I like about BOR drilling 2 wells before FOGL.

FOGL farm out news due next month or January.

Pretty much at this stage a risk free bet IMO.

Worth remembering the potential upside with BOR and FOGL.



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FOGL have 16 billion barrels of potential in their prospect list. Looking closer at what the BOR drills could mean for FOGL.

Borders and Southern's Darwin prospect and drill, if good, will light up circa 2.78 Billion barrels prospective from same play type leads that FOGL have.

Borders and Southern's Stebbing prospect and drill, if good, will light up circa 1 Billion barrels prospective from the same play type leads that FOGL have.

And if they both fail FOGL still have 12 Billion barrels potential in their own play types - with first drill at Loligo for a mere 4.7 Billion barrels........ ;)




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FOGL are presently funded for 2 drills, but they have to be specific.

They will drill Loligo (Tertiary Channel Play) first, and are funded to follow up with Nimrod (again Tertiary Channel Play).

However, they want to drill Scotia (Mid-Cretaceous Fan Play) but the cost of drilling Scotia is a lot more than Nimrod, and so they need to farm down if they want the second drill to be Scotia. No need to farm down if they drill Nimrod second.

But in reality based on the excellent reservoir sands encountered in the Mid-Cretaceous Fan at Toroa it has made Scotia the number 2 drill target, but FOGL need a dollop of extra cash/farm down to do this.

Therefore the farm out deal will likely include a portion of Scotia and a portion of Loligo IMO.

What FOGL will want to end up with is enough cash / free carry to drill Loligo and then Scotia and then either Nimrod/Vinson or Inflexible/Endeavour IMO.


At the end of the farm out FOGL will likely be in the position to commit to 3 firm drills via their cash/free carry position.