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http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/39909/borders-southern-petroleum-retains-buy-rating-at-merchant-securities-after-darwin-well-spud-39909.html

Borders & Southern Petroleum retains 'buy' rating at Merchant Securities after Darwin well spud

7th Mar 2012, 9:17 am by Sergei Balashov Merchant Securities currently has a 'buy' recommendation and a 218.9p on Borders & Southern

Merchant Securities today repeated its ‘buy’ recommendation and ultra-bullish target price on Borders & Southern Petroleum (LON:BOR) following the start of its hotly anticipated drilling campaign in the Falklands.

The note from Merchant Securities was in response to the spudding of the Darwin well on January 31. This is the first ever deepwater well in the South Falkland Basin, while the second well drilled by Borders & Southern is targeting the Stebbing prospect.
This drill programme is being carried out further south of the area that Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) and Desire Petroleum (LON:DES) have been exploring.
In the report, Long repeated his ‘buy’ recommendation and a target price of 218.9 pence per share, representing an upside of over 200 percent to the current share price.

Long’s target price is based on and oil price of US$105 per barrel and a cash flow valuation of Darwin and Stebbing and takes into account the success chance estimates for each prospect.

Long said he likes the Darwin well the best from a risk perspective.
The second well is riskier, said Long, while noting that it is targeting 710 million barrels of recoverable oil compared to the P50 estimate – which means the oil has a 50 percent chance of being produced - of 300 million barrels in the Darwin prospect.

Long said the recoverable reserve estimate for Darwin could increase to 760 million barrels if the reservoir is full of oil from the gas-oil contact to the spill point.

“The wells being drilled by Borders & Southern are considered risky, even by the standards of exploration risk. We have incorporated our best estimate of the geological risks into our target price,” said Long.

The analyst also noted that the wells are targeting two structural traps, which are considered to present lower risk than stratigraphic traps when exploring in frontier basins.

The company is fully funded for the drilling campaign, which is estimated to cost US$150 million.

The results of the Darwin well are expected in mid-March, while the Stebbing results will likely be available in April.

A little reminder of what Mirabaud said earlier....

.......................With the Darwin prospect alone worth £11/shr, we rate this stock as a BUY, with a price target of 150p...................

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I'd like to see a nice steady rise to 80p by mid-next week, followed by news later next week or Monday 23rd latest.

buy on the rumour (i shan't) and then sell before the result .... you can always buy back in if bor strike it very lucky

Lovely stock, cynic! Can you afford to be out? I don't usually punt the highly speculative drillers, but have done very nicely out of RKH and can afford a little wager on this one. There will be a lot of teeth gnashing should they hit & you miss the boat!!!!

I think the correct term is 'afford to be in' as being out costs 'nowt'.... Just pulled Neptune Collonges in the Grand National sweep stake, I figure BOR has a better chance than my horse!

well we have had quite a few dusters lately hope they can surprise us all.

i shan't gnash my teeth even once for i already hld rkh which will benefit too but not be TOO badly hit in the event of the expected duster

Sp's just starting to rise.....there will be rumours coming soon....no doubt !......the good thing is that this is just the first of five.....and in the worst case : put your losses on FOGL if this does not come up with the black stuff.....well that's my plan anyway....

If (and of course its a big if) the rumours of them just striking gas are correct, this means they are at the moment only in the upper part of the target zone.

Best case is gas top and oil bottom.

So there might not be news next week, could be looking at week commencing 23rd April for news ?

Ah.....and I thought everything was upside down in the southern hemisphere.....oil top, gas bottom!

If gas has been found they will need an LNG plant as Argentina will not buy it even if they had the foreign exchange to do so.

is any oil major going to invest millions in a LNG plant in the Falklands?

Obviously if its commercial and profitable then yes.

Are you joking?

Well, if the rumours of gas are true this is great news !!

Darwin has a flat spot - which means its very likely 2 substances which cannot mix, hence the flat spot.

One of the worst case scenarios would have been oil on top and then water. This would have reduced Darwin down in size.

With gas this is the 1st key to the best possible scenario.

It cannot be gas on gas, there would be no flat spot.

Top line find on Darwin requires gas on top and oil below the flat spot line.

So gas on top is the first part of the equation, perhaps why BOR is a bit stronger ? Who knows.

Now it all depends on the second fluid - it could be gas on water, or it hopefully is gas on oil - it cannot be gas on gas - LOL

So everything now depends on them getting down to the flat spot and seeing what liquid it is under the flat spot line........ it is oil then this is top line find - gas on oil :) !!

This would also mean perhaps another 7 to 10 days work to get to TD and run wireline, so perhaps news week commencing 23rd April.

i know it was another horrid day yesterday, but the market for bor was clearly unimpressed ...... strangely, rkh was quite strong

Its funny cynic, when RKH falls and BOR rises you are as quiet as a mouse.

If RKH rises and BOR is flat or down a little, we get these silly posts about RKH up and BOR down.


May I suggest you grow up.................. :)

may i suggest that (a) you stop ramping so hard and (b) you grow a thicker skin ..... my observation above is a matter of fact, unlike your own multiple spoutings which are almost always little nmore than wishful thinking ..... i have consistently stated that it would suit me and any holders in rkh if bor do indeed manage to pull a rabbit out of the hat (i know you hate the phrase "fluke it")

The rumours are coming from where ?.....that's the first thing to establish...at a guess : they must be very close to target depth now....so with a hundred men on board that rig plus helicopters, ships going to the falklands and back all the time, there are bound to be some news coming out even if it is just gossip.....