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Amerisur Reources : Sth. American Oil/Gas explorer (AMER)     

Sharesure - 30 Jun 2007 18:48

Amerisur Resources is exploring for oil and gas in South America, currently in Colombia and later it plans to exploit its licences in Paraguay. It has a new Board of Directors and following a recent Placing at 6p (250m shares) sufficient cash to see through its current drilling plans and carry out some further corporate asset improvement opportunities.

Valuation of Amerisur Resources : 'Rule of Thumb' based on c.800m shares and using 10% DCF on oil at $70/barrel is 0.75p on the sp for every 1m barrels (CHP's share) that is proved in the ground.

Amerisur (formerly Chaco Resources) now has two exploration blocks in Colombia which it is currently evaluating and preparing to drill, one of these in the last quarter of 2007. It has also applied for further blocks in Colombia which are also believed to offer near term production. It also has three substantial areas in Paraguay and is awaiting news on a fourth. The next six months (May-November 2008) should see a steady news flow as it establishes the companys transformation from being an exploration company to becoming a significant oil production company. Set out below are some of the milestones which should produce announcements and have a positive effect on the share price. Any potential reserves are quoted in recoverable oil assets.



Platinillo, Colombia :

100% interest in a field currently assessed at holding 38.1m barrels of light sweet crude oil. Previously this a well flowed at 533 b/d before it was capped.Modern extraction methods may achieve up to double this output/well. Drilling completed for assessment and details of reserve figures and resumption of production daily figures awaited at Dec.2009. (Some guessestimates suggest the field might contain as much as 70m-100m barrels.)

b>



Tigra/Fenix block

100%% Further 3D seismic is completed; previous drilling has resulted in 30,000 barrels of oil from this block. Other blocks nearby in the Magdalena basin have also produced well. Drilled 11/2009; optimistic RNS (17 leads to follow)but reserve figures awaited

RNS :Expect further news on this block imminently and maybe a JV or other arrangement to speed up the timescale to production



Additional blocks to be announced

New local management team, in particular the CEO, is reputed to have some excellent contacts which will bring some high quality blocks to Amerisur in the coming months.

Curupayty Block, Paraguay :

1.39m hectares in north, close to Bolivia. Two wells previously drilled and both showed oil.

RNS : Expect JV with larger producer.



San Pedro Block, Paraguay :

1m hectares in south-east. Previous drilling showed oil.

RNS : Expect JV with larger producer.



Parana Basin, Paraguay :

Canindeyu block covering 1,789,000 hectares. Bordering Brazil. Oil field on Brazilian side already drilled. Chaco also expect to find oil and, at a deeper level, considerable quantities of gas. Chaco has obtained valuable historic seismic for re-evaluation.

RNS : Presidential Decree received 2/11/06.. Petrobras has announced its intention to increase substantially its effort to exploit Paraguay's hydrocarbons and has announced a farm-in on CDS's adjacent block. Possibility that they or another major will do likewise with Amerisur



Corporate Activity : The new Chairman is believed to have been brought on board to prove some or all of the existing Colombian assets and get these oil producing, arrange a JV on the Paraguayan assets before negotiating a sale of the company as consolidation of explorers in the region continues. An exit sp north of 1.00 over the next 12 months might be a reasonable target provided the drilling programme lives up to expectations, the price of oil remains at/above current levels and an approach is made for the company.

tudwick - 31 Oct 2010 17:41 - 2537 of 3289

I simply told him what he was offering was surely illegal.....and funily enough, he immediately hung up on me

TheFrenchConnection - 31 Oct 2010 19:46 - 2538 of 3289

Let us return to reality -lf there be such a variable involved with this company - for a moment .Now it would appears there maybe yet a little trick in the tail here..Most importantly shorters are cold on AMER and the pack are kept at bay as such by Nomads activity.-lt is critical that shorters are kept on a tight leash as they hunt in packs and not isolation ( it takes one to know one as they say ....RBC and other mms seem quite at ease in mopping up stock at 11.25 / 11-75 irrespective of biggish- 500k+ sellers dominating proceedings and hence interaday movement.-but always returning to start of day spread .. .There will be a reason for their support and it will be hard copy aka good info, and not the dross we have endured . For a start we are a producer. We have no probs with casflow as cashburn is a derisory low 5k p/d !! Can you believe that ?..Five grand a day to run an oil company { which can be met by revenues}, a nice wedge in the bank,a good understanding of the permissive geology And what with a multiple back to back drilling prog ahead coupled with competitors successes in neieghbouring blocks, l am sure even RBC dont forsee several dusters on the row............ not even with with this motley crew ................ ln fact if you were new to AMER @ 11.5 youd think you had plucked a nice percentages winner from out of the ethers .....

annie38 - 31 Oct 2010 20:40 - 2539 of 3289

TFC: I am reassured by the mopping up of sales, and agree that whoever is doing this is party to a more information (which we can only presume to be positive) then we P.I.'s are. By the way, any thoughts re. the interesting recent observation on another board that Amer " can only produce what they can handle" inferring that storage capacity (which is being expanded as we speak) is limited, and there may be logistical constraints on the amounts that can be transported by tanker. Would it be reasonable to conclude that flow rates therefore are purposely being restricted at present at Plat. in line with storage capacity ? Regards.

ptholden - 31 Oct 2010 21:41 - 2540 of 3289

They were been 'mopped up' at higher prices than the current price not so long ago, didn't seem to indicate much.

If the flow rates were being throttled in due to logistic issue, I'd expect AMER to have said so in the last update.

If I was new to AMER, I'd think it an AIM dog with any potential based on a decent exploration strike. So far all they seem to have done is errrr.......not a lot, in how many years?

I guess the reason they don't spend much is because they don't do much to enahnce shareholder value, but a nice little earner for the board.

annie38 - 31 Oct 2010 22:12 - 2541 of 3289

PTH: Fair points. I am actually trying really hard to convice myself that I am not "clutching at straws". To be fair though we did not have $1m per month revenue a few years ago.

Sharesure - 05 Nov 2010 11:36 - 2542 of 3289

We have a first!!!! At 16.26 on the 2/11 there was an RNS if my memory is correct and for the first time the sp did not go down. Neither should it given the extra storage capacity now available so that they can pump and hold more stock and the higher oil price. Why is positive news issued at the close of business? It looks like we have a mgt which is seeking to keep a low profile - is it scared that it will become a target? Maybe not just yet but in my view unless the sp starts going north fairly soon in the New Year the company will be vulnerable.

bigwavedave - 05 Nov 2010 12:03 - 2543 of 3289

Must admit that I didn't see it as that positive, SS, although I agree the timing was curious. As for keeping a low profile, they are certainly good at that: they still haven't bothered putting the RNS on the webshite. And, annoyingly, they still have pics of Iguasa on the home page.

Having said that, Platanillo is very exciting. The expanded storage was brought forward six months. Why?

Sharesure - 05 Nov 2010 12:13 - 2544 of 3289

BWD, Rainy season and the need to keep pumping even if local transport infrastructure is difficult, maybe?

bigwavedave - 05 Nov 2010 12:30 - 2545 of 3289

SS, thanks. Ever the optimist, I saw it as a sign that Plat development was being expedited. Or current output increased prior to new drill programme? Maybe next year they will be able say something about a pipeline.

bhunt1910 - 05 Nov 2010 14:24 - 2546 of 3289

Up 1p now - so something is stirring !!

TheFrenchConnection - 05 Nov 2010 14:41 - 2547 of 3289

Whatever informations AMER furnished upon RBC which resulted in their mopping up almost 14m+ shares this past few weeks at 11.5/ 11.75 spread it has successfully provided a tangible floor of support at this level which would seem to have infused the mkt with a little optimism,belief , and hence stimuli : and equally successfully resulted in delivering a signal to smaller pi.s to risk dipping the proverbial toe and opening positions what with the current spread now standing at 12.50/ 12.75 -even withstanding sells of 500,000, 225,000 and 165,000 without any retraction from rise in s/p .....All in all -.....Hopefully the start of a longer term trend ...... lncidentally PTH the mopping up of those selling stock at 13./14p level was countered by pi's themselves whereas the 11.50/ 75 floor of support was maintained by our own Nomad who furthermore was only bidding 11.5 when s/p was 13.5 .......hopefully this so called "dog" as you call it is begining to bark ....

aldwickk - 05 Nov 2010 15:13 - 2548 of 3289

having a look at other oil stock's the price rise of AMER today is a normal one with oil at $86.69

TheFrenchConnection - 05 Nov 2010 15:17 - 2549 of 3289

but the futures mkt told us that a few weeks back..........and rise p/b of oil is not reflected in all oilees ,,,,,,,,,,, AMER now 12/5- 13p ...................,,,no matter how temporary definately provides a feel good factor thearby feeding sentiment while more importantly surpassing 30 day ema and nudging up towards the all important 100 day ema

halifax - 05 Nov 2010 15:59 - 2550 of 3289

with current production of around 600bopd the increase in the price of oil is pretty academic when AMER's market cap is over 100m, this share reminds us of SER and HAWK not much production but plenty of "pie in the sky".

TheFrenchConnection - 05 Nov 2010 16:12 - 2551 of 3289

thats my very point ! ...the rise in AMER s/p is not due to rise in oil p/b ,,,,,lts due to another factor which when looked at with hindsight will be glaringly obvious. ..............................all depends on how many pieces of the jigsaw you hold to know juste why, and also, how you view and gauge the chances of success of the agressive back to back fully financed drilling prog AMER are embarked upon. ...ln addition both HAWK and SER are operating under normal market forces .Their NOMAD and bankers couldnt and wouldnt back them where it counts - $$$$$$$ - whereas we have the investment arm of a Bank in RBC keeping shorters cold and absorbig amounts of sold stock on a scale that left to the market would have taken AMER down to 8p by now. L'oriflamme is in play. ....ln addition wouldnt touch HAWK nor SER with a bargepole ....BUT !! l know there is a lot of oil and gas in Columbia which is much underplayed. l re-iterate that Shell found almost 2 billion barrels in the few short years they were allowed to operate in Colombia . There is a lot more than meets the eye in this stock . ..- l already own stock in 4 Canadian listed companies operating in Columbia-one of whch-PRE { TSX } rose from 1-90c to over $20 in 12 months and another PMG $2 to $16 on the back of three straight strikes of 22,000, 16,000, and 12,000 bpdoe -all top grade API..........When you get lucky here - you get lucky beeegtime . Recently one of the companies-PTA-{ PetroAmerica} - started buying huge swathes of land- chevron financed- ) less than 20km from Fenix . l think they would love to absorb the Fenix block. They know Amer badly fouled up lggy 1 -somewhat akin to cracking a hazlenut with a steamroller; but they equally know there is oil en situ at that location..........lncidentally Annie38: you raise a very moot point. Why would one bother buiding expensive storage facilities you wouldnt need as lets us not be naive and forget if AMER are seen to make ANY flawed costly fiscal . strategic or logistical errors here the house of cards will come tumbling down and those that currently keep the wolves from their door would themselves turn on us..lt is alien to the human pysche to build something you wont use or need ..History illustrates that. ............................. ..But in the mean time RBC - for whatever reason- are prepared to put a solid platform underpinning the s/p at 11.5 - that much is obvious even to the more cynical or stupid element among us. .. .................Citizen SS; nice to see you posting again . ,,l think you will agree the ball is in Wardles court now as the first 2 drills at platinillo are critical ,/ How sayeth you ?

TheFrenchConnection - 08 Nov 2010 15:29 - 2552 of 3289

spread now 12.75 /13p ......anticipate a few sellers .. Will stock at these prices be absorbed by RBC who have made no secret lately in their interest in moving into UK mkt lately what with high profile headhunting from a number of high profile brokerage houses like JP Morgan / Cas.....mais qui sat ?........A few more iis taking positions which is always nice to see

bigwavedave - 08 Nov 2010 15:38 - 2553 of 3289

Yes, interesting to see the move up despite sells apparently outnumbering buys.
Will probably get sold on again for dollars.

Sharesure - 08 Nov 2010 15:42 - 2554 of 3289

TFC, Have been lying low on commenting recently - it was just too good a buying opportunity. I have stopped for now.

I know that I seem the eternal optimist on this one but I do regard Amer as a one way bet barring a huge catastrophe on that continent, like a war between any of the nearby countries if it sucked in Colombia - (and I don't think that is at all likely given the self interest that would help ensure that common sense prevails).

My expectation is that they continue the improvement in production over the next 6 months whilst at the same time they show that their reserves are there in quantity. That gets followed by someone seeking to take them over (the bonus being we rid ourselves of GC!). As for take out sp - I don't really have a personal target other than a multiple of the current sp assuming there are proven reserves well in excess of current published figures.

bigwavedave - 08 Nov 2010 22:32 - 2555 of 3289

So, the CEO and RBC pitching to investors in Toronto last month. Muy interesante.

yuff - 09 Nov 2010 09:28 - 2556 of 3289

TFC-I like your track record-lets hope it translates in to this stock.
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