http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

i hold plenty and shall just wait and see .... meanwhile a bit of profit taking this morning

Oh the places you’ll go as a contractor! Here are three items from post-American Era Iraq involving security contractors:

– On January 11 or 12, four American security contractors, working for the US Embassy, were caught and detained in a Baghdad neighborhood. The four were armed, wearing body armor, and were traveling in a plain car without diplomatic plates or markings. The group included two men and two women. See their photo on al-Jazeera. Note the goatee, which just screams “merc.”


– On January 11, the World’s Largest Embassy (c) in Baghdad issued a public notice on its website saying “that the Government of Iraq is strictly enforcing immigration and customs procedures, to include visas and stamps for entry and exit, vehicle registration, and authorizations for weapons, convoys, logistics, and other matters. Rules and procedures may be subject to frequent revisions, and previous permissions may be deemed invalid… The U.S. Embassy is aware of cases where discrepancies in permits or paperwork have resulted in legal action, including detention, by Iraqi police and other entities. Detentions often last 24-96 hours or more. The Embassy’s ability to respond to situations in which U.S. citizens are arrested or otherwise detained throughout Iraq is limited, including in and around Baghdad.”


– Back in late December, three US Triple Canopy “security contractors” were arrested by the Iraqi Army, held for 18 days without charges and then released after reported efforts by the World’s Largest Embassy (c). The men were detained in a rural area south of Baghdad because the Iraqi military “did not like the ‘mission request authorization’ paperwork that had been issued by the Iraqi Ministry of Interior.”



So, let’s connect the dots:


It sounds like they are having a few bumps in the old road sorting out exactly how diplomacy is going to be practiced with a private army of some 5,500 mercenary security contractors in the mix. It seems those bad boys (and girls!) are not confining themselves to guarding diplomats on social calls to Iraqi ministries either, and are instead covering some ground and attempting some not-so-covert observation work. And getting caught.

Of course everyone is hoping for no Raymond Davis-like incidents that can happen when armed Americans motor around societies where they are not altogether welcome.

The New York Times, America’s steno pool of record these days, is there to soothe worried patriots. Turns out this is all just Iraqi growing pains, NYT sez. Since being allowed to take over its own immigration and internal security from Daddy America, Iraq is still learnin’ how to do it right. The Times quoted a senior American military official said that the current disconnect between the Iraqis and the contractors was “primarily an adjustment of our standard operating procedures as we adapt our people and they adapt their security forces to the new situation.”
Connect the Dots in Iraq: Mercs’ ‘R Us
Others have described it as a power play, with PM Maliki’s son, in some form of private capacity, leading the charge by throwing foreign contractor squatters out of the primo real estate inside the Green Zone.

One possible solution comes from Senator Ben Nelson (R-Absolute Knucklehead), who wants the Iraqis to pay all security costs for the World’s Largest Embassy (c) in Iraq, thus making all the mercs Iraqi government employees.

In our universe, however, the big money question is… what do these incidents have to say about the future of the World’s Largest Embassy (c) and the 5,500 mercs/security contractors they employ in Iraq? Is the Embassy going to spend its time putting out fires caused by the unusual non-so-diplomatic arrangements in Iraq, or is this just a beginners blip?

just for the record, there are certainly several big name oilfield service companies now operating in iraq ..... it's a minefield(!!) to get all the permits etc to bring in the hardware, and sometimes it even goes the roundabout way via turkey rather than via kuwait ..... from memory, entry via saudi is for personnel only .... once inside iraq, things generally travel within an armed convoy

This won't surprise me? Takem from another board.

Watching the keiser Report on RT News, a guy on there called Chris Cook, a former oil regulator, believes the price of oil is to drop to around the $50-$70 dollar a barrel soon, as the current price is being kept at an inflated price at the moment, but the money is being moved from commodities back into dollars.

Also a poster on 3i's suggests that BB is not so good and the reason for drilling deeper,although GENL's SP has risen over the last week,time will tell?

From iii?
< http://bit.ly/yZ2FEW

All looking very good :)

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201201230701479686V

BB-1 news not far away now, as it other news too.

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Get the feeling BB-1 is going to be good..... only 228 metres to go to anticipated TD (about 8 drilling days), and a lot will be known already about what they have found so far.... back up by the GENL rises ?? ;)

And S-4 looks very nice indeed.


........John Gerstenlauer, Gulf Keystone's Chief Operating Officer commented:

"Initial results of the Shaikan-4 well testing programme are very encouraging with logging results indicating that Shaikan-4 may be the best well which Gulf Keystone has logged to date in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq. We look forward to adding to our already outstanding drilling success in the region by completing further Shaikan-4 well tests, which will be followed by more results from the Shaikan-5 and Shaikan-6 appraisal wells before the appraisal programme of the Shaikan world-class discovery is completed. Initial results from the Ber Bahr-1 exploration well and progress in the 2012 wide-ranging exploration, appraisal and early development programme of the Akri-Bijeel block are also highly anticipated."..........

Steady flatish day ahead probably?

Great update,so much to look forward too,i particularly like this of BB.

Initial results from the Ber Bahr-1 exploration well and progress in the 2012 wide-ranging exploration, appraisal and early development programme of the Akri-Bijeel block are also highly anticipated."

So earlyish Feb to total depth for BB,then logging ? That word PATIENCE is cropping up againmwe're almost there?

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/23012012/58/premier-league-premier-league-balotelli-kick-intentional.html

Just seen this in 3i too re O&G law:

Iraq: New oil and gas law in days? (30 credits)
Posted on: Mon, Jan 23, 2012
Iraqi PM Nouri Al-Maliki is said to be preparing to announce the new oil and gas law in the coming days. The following 402-word report sheds light on the subject and tells what about preparations at the Iraqi Parliament and the Oil Ministry to make such an announcement. It also tells what about the contacts between the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) on the subject.

http://www.tacticalreport.com/view_news/Iraq:_New_oil_and_gas_law_in_days/2

http://www.derrickpetroleum.com/2012/01/23/over-a-billion-worth-ep-opportunities-in-middle-east/

Times - Tempus today notes:
Gulf Keystone
Another of this column's picks for this year, GKP, put out a further encoraging update on it's wells in Kurdish Iraq. The shares are now up 47% since I tipped them at the start of the year, mainly on the assumption that someone will bid. They perforce remain in my portfolio, but investors who are not convinced that an approach is imminent might consider taking some profit in such a volatile stock.

http://www.investorsiraq.com/showthread.php?169487-Parliament-votes-on-eight-draft-laws-decide-to-adjourn-meeting-until-Tuesday-kisses&p=1140158#post1140158

Just came across this,sounds very positive and yes i believe the poster,lowersharpnose.

Yesterday's news release:

"Shaikan-4 tested a thin zone at the bottom of the Kurre Chine B formation achieving a flow rate of 4,970 bopd and 7.0 mmscf/d of gas at a 1,101 psi flowing wellhead pressure with initial results indicating a 39 degree API fluid."

I wanted to get a better idea of what thin means in this context, so I phoned GKP and spoke to John Gerstenlauer.

The Kurre Chine B (KCB) is thick interval. from the schematic diagram onP10 of the June presentation, the KCB stretched from 2582m to 2849m TVDSS. That's 267m gross.

http://www.gulfkeystone.com/uploads/gkp_investor_presentation-june2011.pdf

On Shaikan-1, the test of the KCB gave ~6k bpd + 21mmscfs. They performed this on a section of hole at the top of the interval that "looked good on the logs". I asked how thick the tested section was and JG said that they couldn't be sure because a lot of the tests were conducted open hole.

On SH-4, they picked a section of the KCB that was down at the bottom of the interval and that looked *crappy* on the logs. "We are past testing the good stuff" - they know that is going to flow.

This crappy section flowed at ~5kpd +7mm scfs.

Q: How thin was the tested section?

A: 5m.

Blinking heck, A 5m section, which looked crappy on the logs produced ~5kpd +7mm scfs!!

No wonder the RNS concludes:

"Initial results of the Shaikan-4 well testing programme are very encouraging with logging results indicating that Shaikan-4 may be the best well which Gulf Keystone has logged to date in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq."

It is a monster.

lsn

Fruit n veg

iii

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I have long believed that the politics have been overplayed as a risk factor here. It is what the City have been telling us ad nauseam – while lining their pockets, no doubt, with cheap placement shares at the same time.

Over the time span in which I have been invested (since August 2009) these ‘political fears’ have never gone away. We on this BB have had people calling for Shahristani’s overthrow, and worse besides, as if this one individual was the sole reason why GKP’s sp seemingly spent an age in the doldrums.

But as mid-size majors signed deals with the KRG in defiance of official State Department advice not to invest in Iraq – advice which Washington maintains to this day, but only for public consumption - people began asking why these mid-sized players were taking such a massive risk in a territory without a national hydrocarbon law. TK remained sanguine. He was right.

No-one, however, bargained for a joker in the pack. What we have learned with Exxon is that power politics and the big money that backs it up can SUBVERT THE POLITICAL PROCESSES.

Now, you may ask, what is a giant like Exxon doing signing up for six unproven blocks, two of which are in disputed territory? Why on earth would Exxon want to get embroiled in that issue? Have they not courted enough controversy already?

My theory is that these are bargaining chips which they can, or indeed always intended to, relinquish in the political negotiations which would necessarily take place with Baghdad.

A dyed-the-the-wool politician such as Shahristani will be only too delighted if he can wrest either or all of these contentious blocks from Exxon. As others have reminded us, none of these Exxon blocks is proven. But it would be more difficult to persuade Exxon to give up Shaikan, which is why Exxon might be waiting for an O&G law to be approved before going public with its (intended) acquisition. There is every reason, then, to stay tight-lipped.

BRUTAL DIPLOMACY
So what wider game is Exxon playing? I believe Exxon is a proxy for the US in the latter’s abortive diplomatic campaign to secure an O&G law by the time US troops left. Exxon has, in other words, been used by Washington as a powerful backstop, an insurance policy if all else fails. The prize is not the six blocks – it is Shaikan. Why else would Exxon have gone barging into Kurdistan?

So far, this brutal diplomacy has had the desired effect. The evidence is in Shahristani’s soft-peddling on sanctions against Exxon. First he threatens Exxon with exclusion from the south. Now he is in talks to seek a solution!

After saying early this month that the government was “weighing measures” against Exxon, he is last reported as saying: "The minister of oil has been in touch with them [Exxon], and they are going to come to the ministry of oil for a final round of discussion.”

That sound like a prelude to a face-saving climb-down to me.

Shahristani will have been advised by his acolytes, and possibly by Exxon too, that in the absence of an O&G law the legal ground for excluding Exxon from its southern contracts is likely to be challenged through international arbitration.

But an O&G law, once enacted, can retrospectively rubber stamp existing Kurd contracts whilst at the same time side-step the legal mess that might result from a cancellation of Exxon’s southern contracts.

Who knows... Shahristani might, as we speak, be pleading with Exxon to stay in the south. It would be very bad politics and very bad timing indeed to evict Exxon and it is a high-risk tactic which might threaten the shaky coalition.

In any case, if Shahristani were foolish enough to play hardball, Exxon would, I suspect, not hesitate to call his bluff and quit these unprofitable TSC commitments for good.

EXXON’S PAY-OFF
An O&G law needs to be flexible enough to accommodate Exxon in the north and the south and thus save some face in Baghdad. It must recognise that the Exxon-Kurd relationship is a FAIT ACCOMPLI – the first of many deals the Kurds have declared they will do whether Baghdad likes it or not. It is only a fool who will not recognise the KRGs’ determination to have control of its oil.

Left to its own devices, I doubt whether Exxon would have gone public with its six-block deal. But the KRG over-ruled Exxon and wanted to use the affair for propaganda purposes. But what if Exxon had got its way and kept it quiet? Then, it would have been able to approach Baghdad in secret in order to apply pressure for an O&G law on behalf of the US government, where conventional shuttle diplomacy had failed. Exxon could have quietly threatened Baghdad with a withdrawal from west Qurna and the water injection contract.

Seen in this light, we might conclude that Washington saw Exxon as an arm-twisting alternative, to be deployed when the diplomatic channels had been exhausted. Of course, Exxon will want a substantial pay-off for its efforts and it is fanciful, to say the least, that six unproven blocks, two of which are in disputed territory, will satisfy its needs. No, the only pay-off that is big enough for Exxon is Shaikan. What else could it be?

GRAHAM-WOOD VIDEO
Malcolm Graham-Wood, in the infamous video, is clearly referring to Shaikan, IMO. He will not comment to PIs on the video – someone did ask - and it is not too outlandish to suggest that he deliberately made an oblique reference to it as ‘the best ever block in Kurdistan’, knowing that people would draw the obvious conclusion. Many of us have.

Call me a conspiracy theorist, but I conclude that the Exxon ‘six blocks’ might be an utter distraction. For Exxon and for Washington, the object of the exercise is, was and always has been to secure Shaikan for itself before anyone else makes a move. This fits well with what sources have told Mark Leftly.

Politically, by making its mark in Kurdistan, Exxon has at a stroke banged heads together in Baghdad, ‘derisked’ investment in all Kurdistan oilers, hastened the passage of an O&G law - not certain but not a sine qua non either – and given notice to its competitors, notably the Chinese, that Shaikan belongs in US hands. It was never about the ‘six blocks’.

FRUIT N VEG

iii.co.uk

Interesting post.

Beyond Shaikan ( and Akri Bijeel )being sold there is the question of value for the rest of GKP, the Ber Bahr and Sheik Adi blocks.

At Ber Bahr we have a fully diluted working interest of 40%, which it has been said, has potentially 1.5 times of what is at Shaikan. Just the one well there closing in on TD and results eagerly awaited. Could be worth more to GKP than Shaikan with further appraisal.

Sheik Adi with one well drilled and a fully diluted 80% working interest.
Sheik Adi data from RNS 14th Sept 'Sheikh Adi-1 exploration well drilling with core and log data indicating 256 metres of net oil column' 'Gross oil in place numbers announced for Sheikh Adi following independent evaluation by Dynamic Global Advisors assessed at 1 billion (P90) to 3 billion (P10) barrels -- Sheikh Adi-1 exploration well reached TD in the Kurre Chine C section of the middle Triassic and will now be suspended pending further testing once fracture treatment parameters and logistics have been finalised.'

Still a lot to be revealed on Sheik Adi to gain an understanding of value but there are some positive indications from the satellite imagery, courtesy of Scotforth Ltd and superimposed, thanks to Sarah ( from memory ), on the Ber Bahr/Sheik Adi blocks.

The limited amount of Ber Bahr satellite imagery released indicates that there is a major spill over a good way into Sheik Adi.

Looking from the Shaikan end it looks very much like the Shaikan oilfield spills over into Sheik Adi with SH-4 only 2-3Kms from SA.

The Northern half of Sheik Adi is also along trend from the Atrush discovery.

Very major potential at Sheik Adi with an 80% working interest for GKP.

Photobucket

The SH-4 rig was due at SA-2 once it had finished there. Testing could take a fair time yet at SH-4. Might the rig for SH-7 be diverted there ?

Still much to do on both Ber Bahr and Sheik Adi, but there looks to be very major value potential which could be far greater than even Shaikan.

Can't find it myself but it seems a 2m buy at GENL(£17m),perhaps why GKP recovered ?

Peak oil back as an issue.

http://www.madhedgefundtrader.com/the-resurrection-of-peak-oil/

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/01/25/iraq-kurds-oil-idUKL5E8CP1W320120125

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