http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Rf, why? RKH goes up, so will the others even though they are not directly involved.

Perhaps but not by so much....DES has a market cap of 350 million ....RKH does have what we think is a big discovery.....so on testing results ...RKH might go ballistic...but DES not so much and frankly it should hardy move at all....not convinced by Desire...they are perhaps unlucky that RKH have it all and them ...zippo so far...and plenty of time to get back into DES later....

There could be a situation in the future where Rockhopper is valued at 800 million pounds and Desire at 40 million or less....and sp starting to climb here....

attached is a comparative chart that surprised me no end ..... rkh (blue) lags DES (red) performance by miles!

Richard

Either RKH has some catching up to do or DES has some falling to do!

I understand they they should be flaring off gas/oil about now as part of the testing process.

bit of a statement of the obvious for you :-))
i rather suspect some of both, though equally i am long both - think i'll add FOGL to that chart and re-post

robstuff on DES thread has pointed out, absolutely correctly, that it is RKH (red) that has outperformed DES (blue) and of course FOGL (Green) - as it damn should have done

you total knucklehead cynic!!!

Talks about RKH during the market wrap.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/521/david-hart-oil-gas-analyst-at-westhouse-securities-maintains-his-buy-recommendation-on-bp-and-gives-his-views-on-3-other-oil-companies-.html

.

The analysts comments tie in with my comments, that the share price is held back whilst the big boys wait for the nod that flow rate testing proves commerciality.

After we get that there is no reason the share cannot be trading in the 650p to 750p range just on Sea Lion and excluding the other prospects (like Fox, Stephens, Jason etc... and their share of the DES license drills, like Rachel etc..)

I hope that you are right Prosels.....thrown my hat in here....

Tom Jones say's you can keep your hat on

joe cocker said it better!

only with a little help from his friends

Where ever I lay my hat that's my hope euhhh sorry home....

StockMarketWire.com
Rockhopper started at Evolution with neutral rating, 359p target price.

I prefer the Merrill Lynch note - who are a far bigger and wiser outfit. ML said buy with 650p target.

I have read the Evo note, its, IMO, quite pathetic and worth ignoring in terms of RKH.

I like this bit from the Evo note :

While we see upside for all companies we have grouped the companies by area and then based recommendations on where we see greater relative value. In the North Falkland Basin, we prefer Desire over Rockhopper, owing to the formers leverage to near-term drilling. In the Southern Basins we prefer Falkland Oil & Gas over Borders & Southern owing to its mix of play types and more attractive valuation.


So they prefer the stock with no oil as they are drilling, against a stock that has a large oil find and is undervalued based on it ? LOL, how can you slate RKH an assign no value for most of their assets and then value DES on lots and lots of hope............

Errrrr.... yes.... like I said, the ML note is far superior, IMO ;)

pp the reason they prefer DES is obviously if they strike oil their sp may triple whereas if RKH's find proves not to be commercial their sp may fall by 75%.

The Rockhopper find is commercial.....I'd say there is a 90% chance that it is....trawling through the rns's released : they seem pretty certain of it...with perhaps oil to the value of somewhere between 1 to 1.5 billion worth in the ground....that's big...by any standard....perhaps not as big as the Shaikan well in Iraq but this is only the start....the proplem is DES has found not much....so to me saying that you prefer such and such oilie to another one...best to go with the bird in hand....if DES come up dry once more...hello 50p again....

Evolution valuation on Rockhopper

Valuation
Rockhopper is unique among the Falkland Islands E&Ps because of the Sea Lion oil discovery, which provides a much more tangible basis for valuation than for the other companies initiated on in this document. Commercial flow-test results should encourage confidence that Sea Lion will be developed and give the market a better steer on the productive capabilities of the reservoir.
Our Core + Risked NAV for Rockhopper is 513p/share. Of this, 490p/share is
attributable to the Sea Lion discovery which we have risked at 50% reflecting the lack of a commercial flow test, successful appraisal well and development risk. The remaining 23p/share is a result of Rockhoppers 7.5% interest in the Rachel and Anna wells to be drilled by Desire. As previously noted in this report, we currently attribute no value to gas discoveries and so ignore the impact of Rockhoppers interest in the Johnson and Liz gas discoveries. Nor do we attribute any value to Rockhoppers 7.5% interest in the Ann well, as we do not believe this will be drilled in the current campaign (see Desire company section for further detail).
At present, Rockhopper trades at a 36% discount to Core + Risked NAV, which is not far different from the average of other exploration orientated companies that we have under coverage (ie a c30% discount). We therefore do not see Rockhopper as significantly undervalued vis-vis other E&Ps, and initiate with a Neutral recommendation and 359p share price target.
We believe investors have already taken a positive view on the outcome of the flowtest result and with only a 7.5% interest in the upcoming Desire wells, in our view there is only limited upcoming newsflow. Like the share prices of many other companies which have made transformational discoveries, we believe there is a good chance that Rockhopper shares will trade sideways until more detail is released on the companys plans.