JKX are a growth oil and gas company, principally based in the Ukraine, but also present in several other countries, and have recently presented some excellent results.




JKX corporate website : http://www.jkx.co.uk/index.cfm

Poltava Petroleum : http://www.ppc.net.ua/inf_en.html

Annual report 2005 : Click HERE

anotherxiii,

No because I didn't have a chance to trade as I had to travel home form London, I was in an internet cafe earlier and I don't trade from those!

I plan to buy some CDL in the near future as soon as I have some funds are available, for a long term hold.



Aldwick,

No not a company I have looked at.

Andy,

I also hold CDL.

I also posted this over the road.


All,

Some interestng theories regarding yesterday's drop, and, upon reflection, I think perhaps each factor contributed in some small way, at least.

I personally don't think triple witching had much effect, although the price started to fall around that time, so maybe I am wrong about that.

I certainly do think people made assumptions about trackers buying in due to the FTSE 250 inclusion, and may well have been long on margin awaiting a quick run up in the price, that did not occur.

Then maybe the shorters came in, and the price started to fall back, and margin traders then began to close out, thus acccellerating the fall, and then we had the sudden drop at the end.

I could be totally wrong of course, but fundementally JKX has not changed since yesterday, so I certainly couldn't see a rational explantion for such a sudden fall.


Having reviewed the 2005 final figures, JKX look to be in a healthy position, with increased oil production carrying over from H2 2005, and the much increased gas price since eary January this year that will enhance this year's earnings.

JKX always produce better H2 results than H1, so I remain convinced we will have a good year again in 2006.

A succinct article from oilbarrel.



20.03.2006
JKX Joins FTSE 250 As Ukraine Projects Continue To Deliver
Last week delegates at oilbarrel.coms conference in the City of London heard the executives of Cardinal Resources and Cadogan Petroleum express their enthusiasm for Ukraine. Both companies gave a nod to London-listed JKX Oil & Gas, which has just entered the FTSE 250, as an example of where they would like to go in terms of reserves and production growth.

JKX has, of course, been operating in the former Soviet republic for a decade and is today the largest non-state producer in the country, pumping about 5 per cent of the countrys oil and gas output. This has not been an easy journey: between 1999 and 2002 JKX was embroiled in legal battles with its state-owned partners and too often the companys plans are frustrated by political or bureaucratic inertia.

Historically its not been an easy area to work in and its still not a walk in the park, said chief executive Dr Paul Davies. But its steadily changing for the positive.

The company has certainly emerged from the difficult days of six years ago with a robust business. Last year JKX generated a post-tax profit of US$37 million on revenues of US$82.9 million, up 78 per cent on the previous year. The improved results were driven by higher prices for gas, already up more than 50 per cent on the 2004 average, and higher oil and gas production. Last year daily production averaged 9,300 barrels of oil equivalent, up from 8,000 boepd in 2004, and production is today running at 10,500 boepd.

This output comes from the companys four fields in the Poltava region of Ukraine, where work continues to fully develop the reserve base. The bulk of last years production growth was down to its oil and condensate fields: gas production is hemmed in until the company can access an export pipeline.

On this front, the company has been stymied by state oil and gas company Naftogas, which must approve a tie-in to the 56-inch Soyuz pipeline, one of the main gas trunkline systems delivering gas from Russia to Western Europe. With this long-awaited approval still pending, JKX has devised Plan B: it has completed engineering of an alternative 42 km pipeline that will link into the 36-inch Efremovka-Dikanka-Kiev trunkline. This alternative route has been submitted to the authorities for approval and JKX has also made progress to acquire the rights of way so it can hit the ground running if and when that approval comes in.

In the meantime the company continues to drill up its Ukraine properties, where it now has two rigs running and plans to bring in a third, heavy duty rig capable of handling the high pressure gas reservoirs on the deep Rudenkovskoye field.

Rudenkovskoye promises to be an exciting but challenging project. In the fourth quarter of last year the company drilled Well R101 in the north of the field but had to suspend the hole at 4,579 metres after encountering higher-than-expected pressures. With the right equipment in place, the hole will be re-entered and a 200 metre gas-bearing interval tested in the Tournasian sandstones. Once JKX has sourced and mobilized a third, heavy duty rig, it plans to drill down to 5,000 metres and more to get to grips with the underlying Devonian formations.

The company continues to work up the Molchanovskoye field and is currently drilling ahead on horizontal Well M154. It is also drilling a vertical well on the Ignatovskoye field. Further wells are planned on both fields this year together with a test on a further horizon in the N70 well on the Novo-Nikolaevskoye field. On the exploration front, a well is planned on the Zaplavskoye licence and in the second half of the year the company intends to shoot 2D seismic over its newly-awarded Chervonoyarske East exploration licence.

But JKX isnt just a Ukraine play. It also holds interest in Georgia, Italy, Bulgaria and Turkey. (A divestment of its US property may be on the cards after a series of disappointing well results.) This geographic spread diversifies the political risk but has also been driven by the difficulties of growing its asset base in Ukraine, where 90 per cent of licences are still controlled by the state. Instead, with its new additions of acreage in Bulgaria and Turkey and an ongoing search for projects in Russia, JKX is seeking to create a footprint in the wider region where it can leverage its regional expertise, contacts and experience.

112,000 trade @ 314 buy/sell ?

aldwickk,

Looks like a buy,IMO, in fact there were several large trades that looked like buys today, and we finallly ticked up at the close!

RSI looked oversold, and maybe one or two trackers are finally buying in for the FTSE 250 inclusion?

Comment in today's Shares magazinre;


"strong track record justifies investor confidence"


Fair comment given the recent results and doubling of the dividend IMO.

Former Ukrainian premier vows to scrap Russian gas accord if elected
AFX


MOSCOW (AFX) - Former Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Timoshenko said she would void a gas deal struck by Russia and Ukraine last month if her party wins legislative elections Sunday.

The agreement ended a disruption of Russian gas shipments to Ukraine that also affected western European countries.

This is not just about gas, she told the Russian newspaper Izvestia. 'It's about managing Ukraine from another country. Ukraine is reined in by its debts and risks losing its gas deposits.'

'After the legislative elections the gas accord must absolutely be cancelled. Because of this agreement Ukraine's energy sector is shrouded in secrecy. And some, let's say influential people, in our country are making a lot of money because of this,' she added.

Timoshenko has herself been accused of benefiting from Russian gas import deals in the past.

'If we win the election we will propose our candidates take up certain posts in the security services and will investigate who in Ukraine made a profit from this agreement,' she said.

Timoshenko was dismissed as prime minister in September after disagreements with President Viktor Yushchenko and has since joined opposition ranks.

'If we come in first (in the election) inside the orange coalition, we will be able to take over responsibilities' in the government, she said, referring to the colour of the bloodless 'Orange Revolution' in late 2004 in which she battled for change along with Yushchenko.

newsdesk@afxnews.com

afp/tc

Congratulations on the informed postings on this thread. It's rare in my experience to hear posters agree that a share is fairly valued at the moment. The better the share the less exuberant the posters it seems.

saintserf,

Yes I agree, the 'noisy' threads quite often are for the worst shares.

I hope Timoshenko loses on Sunday, or we may see a slide on Monday if she is genuinely going to scrap the gas deal with Russia.

But of course Ukraine would risk an international backlash if Russia cuts the supply again.

let's hope the present incumbent prevails.

What gas deal does she want to replace it ?

She wont be any position to do anything ; as word on da street is that the looming presidential elections have Yanokovych in by an absolute landslide . 52 %- /35 % with remaining 14 % going to parties of all persuasians { including the loony who wants to re-unite Ukraine with a new "USSR, rebuild the Berlin wall ,and back to the days of isolationism and ten divisions on the Polish border ...lol ,, lol } And believe me Yanokovych certainly wont be offering the traitor a govt portfolio...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................The Kiev Post calls for return of Yucshenko but admits he is well behind in the polls by 49% to 42%... ,,The Kiev Times already talks of ex "Orange " leader , Yuschenko, as having upset the Ukranian fiscal applecart to the point where he has tried to please everyone and ended up pleasing no-one . His own friends including Timoshennko hasve been implicated in all number of smear attacks .. lt is a shame as both his and her demise seems to have arisen from the mass corruption they set out to erradicate . As for Timishenko ? She was partly instrumental in his downfall . Such sophisticated concepts as Collective cabinet decisions are obviously yet to arrive in the Ukraine . Her dealings with Moscow were a diplomatic political mess / and Putin is no-ones fool . He knows he holds all the aces through energy outfits like Gazprom and the like ., ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, A resource i forsee turning into a " bidding war" by winter 2006/7. And after that ? What then ? quit sait ? ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Another resource war as with the UK and Argentina or lraq and the USA ? Whoa -Before this turns into a book ,,lol lm sorry to bang on and on about JKX ..but it has better fundementals than ANY of its peers . ln all variables of measurement of VALUE JKX topped the list barring the potential and actual reserves of Cairns ........ And at the end of the day oil and its revenues will overcome the personality of politics and JKX is more than ideally connected and more than a suitable conduit to becoming a bedpartner with both Russian & Ukranian authorities/ oil companies ---for oil heading WEST .... ...l am awaiting our 4% royalty from the Black sea oil j/x between BP and TPAO ( National oil company of Turkey . Thier first well achieved a few billion blls .........l cant rememeber the spudding date for the second well in which JKX have a 4% stake . For arguments sake let us say the yield is on a parity or even two thirds of first well - as is fully expected,,,well 4% of 4/5 billion bbls of sweet crude is 400/500 million barrels for JKX . For Free!!! ........ ,,,,From this mere acorn is emerging an impressive oak ... & more to the point ten baggers for most of us . Lets not get to greedy now; but to sell now would be INSANE .
My fag packet calcs indicate 500p after USA driving season . ,,,,, ....My only fear as i stated on another thread will be the capacity in the rotary count compounded by a huge hike in workovers . . Well there is no spare capacity . Costs have risen by over 100% to cashburn of $54,000 p/d ( onland ) to 107,000 p/d { offshore .. There exists a dearth of rigs, FPV s and all manner of both upstream infrastucture ; and downstream a lack of suitable facilities like refineries and holding tanks .Rigs are being booked as far ahead as 18 months ; and many suppliers are not offering at the moment . Wherever possible junior producers or highly potential expo oil companies are being bought outright by China , lndia, Russia and the Americas and Canada ..Now Brazil is entering the fray with all heavyweight CEO s of "Big Oil " scrutinizing, siesmic, satallite and magnetic imagery of the area recently at a meeting in a so called " secret meeting " @ JP Morgan in London following last years JP Morgans "secret meeting" about concerns about reserves . No-ne is better @ book cooking than BP or Shell { shell was forced to revise its reserves DOWNWARDS over 10 times by regulators } ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, .....As for JKX locations ? First class . l always said after spending months reserching this rascal i would never sell until 500p .......Now its nearing that figure im am holding -Bigtime ...Relax Get a beautiful blonde , a bottle of first leaf Chateau Latour or Haut Brion ... and juste stare at our results !!!!!! LOL Bonne chance et a demain ...@+ J. ,,,,,,

l apologise to all readers !! My bloody spacer bar wont form paragraphs . l dont usually write like this in one long sentance as some seem to think lol @ + J

Hi FC
A good post
but as you suggest in yr last one
VERY hard to read in that format

I see no problems in the middle/longer term
but as uyou suggest it may be interesting in the immediate short term

TFC,

Thank goodness for word wrap, or I'd have been out by the airport by the time I finished that "sentence" LOL! (only kidding!)

I agree JKX, despite it's meteoric rise over the past couple of years, still has bags of potentail IMO.

The recent results do not reveal the whole picture, as the average H2 production figure was dragged down by the lower H1 figure, distorting (IMO) the true current picture considerably.

Additionally, the price of domestic gas in the Ukraine has nearly doubled since the start of 2006, yet the extra revenue from this does not appear to have been factored into people's estimations of earnings for 2006.

And nobody seems to mention the fact they are trying to tie into an export pipe, and once sucessful, will receive international spot prices for the gas they are permitted to export, rather then the still low, (but much improved), Ukraine domestic price.

Add in the Georgian offshore exploration, which as you rightly say is a company maker in it's own right, and, IMO, we have exciting prospects ahead for JKX.

And then of course we have the chance of commencement of Italian production in 2007, and the current exploration in Turkey and Bulgaria.

5 is the very least I'll be considering selling for, if gas prices continue their upward spiral, JKX is well positioned to benefit.

More power to your ISA I say!

Bon chance et bon weekend!

May I ask the boards views of the possibility of any new parliament falling back to the Gazprom deal of 2004 at $50. Baring in mind the implications of high gas prices to ukraines steel manufacturing that requires a cheap fuel source to survive.

This issue concerns me on the short term the medium / long term is well covered by good posts above.

Regards

D Square,

I have wondered that too, and if the Russian backed guy wins, (and he is currently in the lead and favourite), we MAY see a renegotiation of that deal, but I personally cannot see the entire price rise being reversed completely, maybe a new mid price possibly, but that's just my own speculation, and as I hold, I am clearly biased.

IMO, in the worst case scenario, the price is reversed, and we return to the gas price we were receiving at the END of the 2005 results, which was higher than the average throughout the year!, so we will still see an increase, and we should be exporting part of the production soon, which may well offset anything we lose if the price is cut.

I will try and check to see what percentage of production JKX are allowed to export.

The Ukraine seem to be dragging their feet on an export route for JKX' gas, but they will have to agree eventually, as it's in the written contract.

What excellent post's it's certainly given me a lot more confidence in jkx since it's highs a few week's back
thanks Keith

Thanks Andy for your reply much appreciated.

TFC as always pleasure to read your posts however they are presented.

Regards to all

Amities ....Anybody make much of directors selling collectively .?...Andy -The last thing i heard was none due to chronic domestic shortage ,,, with a codicile to review in the third quater