Trading Update
Overview
Trading in the period since 11th November 2014 has been characterised by a good performance by the AEP Division and an increasingly challenging environment in the ECS Division. In response to these conditions and the anticipated impact of the fall in oil prices on demand for oil and gas products within AEP, we have further increased our focus on margin control across the Group. Whilst seeking to ensure that the Group preserves its flexibility to respond to any recovery in its markets, cost reduction programmes have been implemented or accelerated and selected capital projects have been deferred across the Group.
AEP
Trading in the AEP division overall has been in line with expectations during the period, continuing the trend of improving performance reported in the second half of last year. The recent, precipitous fall in oil prices is expected to affect demand levels in those AEP businesses directly involved in the oil and gas industry from early in calendar year 2015. The non-oil, speciality polymer businesses in AEP, which represent approximately two-thirds of divisional turnover, are expected to continue to perform in line with expectations. Notwithstanding satisfactory current activity levels in the oil and gas related businesses, cost bases are being reduced in advance of the expected reduction in demand levels arising from oil prices, which are now widely expected to remain at or around current levels. These pre-emptive cost reductions are being carefully targeted to ensure that we retain our ability to continue to develop the business effectively.
ECS
Against a continuing backdrop of global mineral oversupply and correspondingly low commodity prices, any recovery in our ECS markets continues to be deferred. Demand levels in the Americas are stable, albeit at low levels, anticipated growth in EMEA has not been achieved and margins continue to decline in Australia as a result of customer-driven price pressures. In response to these circumstances, additional cost reductions are now being implemented in all territories to further protect trading margins. With only minimal near-term capital investment required in our ECS facilities, which have been well-invested through the programmes of the past decade, cash conversion is expected to be strong.
Outlook
Our balance sheet is strong, with borrowings remaining in line with expectations. We will complete the major project to consolidate our medical manufacturing facilities in the USA, which is vital to allow continuing strategic growth. Other capital programmes for 2015 are being curtailed to include only essential or near-term payback projects. In addition, future major projects have been deferred pending improved market conditions, which is currently expected to result in significantly lower capital expenditure in 2016 than previously indicated.
In addition to ongoing programmes to aggressively manage variable costs, these new management actions will reduce the run rate of cash overhead expenditure across the group by an incremental £9m on an annualised basis.
Recognising the anticipated effect of lower oil prices and the challenging trading conditions in ECS, offset by cost reductions across the Group, we now anticipate 2015 full year earnings to be slightly below our previous range of expectations. In addition, an exceptional charge will arise from implementation of the cost savings initiated during this year. Our actions leave the group well positioned to take advantage of recovery when it occurs.