From today's Times:

Tiddler to watch

"ImmuPharma, steady at 46p, the biotech group which has a treatment of the disease Lupus in phase II trials, could benefit from the failure this week of trials of rival drug Rituxan. ImmuPharma's housebroker, Panmure Gordon, believes its client may attract the attention of Rituxan's developers, Genentech and Biogen Idec."

OK, I know we're all heartily sick of the promising small pharmacos, but I thought I'd bring this one to your attention because the demise of one much-hyped drug can indeed have a positive knock-on effect elsewhere. Furthermore, there doesn't seem to be much medication out there for Lupus.

This company is run by experienced people who have previously worked for some of the majors like GSK, Bristol-Myers Squibb, etc, and in investment banking. Their research results have been positive so far.

I made a good profit on these last year and the sp seems to have turned up again recently. Bought back again this morning. (NB: too small to trade in CFDs)

Despite a good day (especially if you bought in at sub 90p and sold at the 98p area), IMM needs to break 100p on the bid and hold (it's a sort of psychological barrier for chartists even though the share's been there before). Not saying it won't but if it opens up tomorrow I could be a buyer with a maximum three day horizon - still worried about the Lloyd's rights issue; in my humble opinion the Lloyd's Board are showing crass arrogance and gambling with the UK economy or am I on my own here?

With that in mind, not much else to say this side of next week.

Thanks for your comments Lar... haven't been checking in for a few days.

I think I'll stay on the sidelines for now - interesting to see that it has bounced today though

IMM kinda went up during Wednesday but I was never really convinced and up a tad more today. I'm only posting because my tried and tested indicators are all but at a 'buy'. (They've moved really quickly). Could be another good rise tomorrow which if it happened I would normally (well probably) buy in to but with my worries re Lloyds I'll wait till after the weekend; even if I miss out. Also keen to get back into JJB but they've been a bit iffy since the rights issue and are actually down 6%+ since I sold last week. I sold 10,000 Lloyds shares this morning at a big paper loss so now 100% cash but will take up my rights issue and hope they don't bomb before I can recover at least some of that loss.

IMM still not sure what to do and back below 100p and my indicators are still not quite right - they're meandering. I monitor about 50 shares; all smaller stocks - mostly AIM. In the last six months I've not seen such a high percentage of red on my screen as in the last few weeks. It's 90%+ this morning, IMM being one of the few that is blue - up 0.5p.

IMM looking much better. Still sticking under that 98p resistance but my indicators are almost right. About half of my ten or so 'favoured shares' that I'm monitoring are showing similar upturns. Much more blue than red these last few days and I've bought into GMG recently.

Bought 3000 yesterday and again today.

Got that wrong so out at 93p this afternoon.

Terrible market conditions so best left alone I feel

Now looks like it could drop to 78/80p support area.

Could have turned - nearly bought at 78p this morning but didn't. I'll see if it holds over the weekend.

I bought 10,000 last Thursday at 82p and another 2,500 this morning at 85.5p. I think we have a change of direction.

I thought about it at 81p a few days ago but the awful spread made me leave it alone.

Yup not good but I went for it.

Well, I sold all 12,500 (after 4 months) at 91p yesterday afternoon (up about 10% - no droolers please) and bought AVN which has made 5% already and has legs to go.

ImmuPharma's Lupuzor has blockbuster potential, reckons broker Cenkos
2:25 pm by Ian Lyall The broker is predicting peak sales potential of US$2 billion based on some fairly conservative assumptions Cenkos this morning initiated coverage of ImmuPharma (LON:IMM) with a ‘buy’ recommendation and 232 pence-a-share price target.

Navid Malik, the City broker’s respected head of life sciences, points out that ImmuPharma is in an enviable position for biotech in having a “phase-III ready asset”.

He was referring to Lupuzor, a potential treatment for the sometimes fatal auto-immune disease Lupus.

Taking it through the clinical stages of development to phase III means the group is in a position to maximise the value when it does finally find a partner willing to take on the further development of Lupuzor.

The US approval process should be far less treacherous than it might be for other drugs.

That’s because Food & Drug Administration has granted ImmuPharma approval to start the next phase of development with a Special Protocol Assessment.

This SPA is an important sign-off on the company’s clinical trial protocols.

The agency is essentially saying that, assuming no unforeseen issues, it will approve the drug if it matches or exceeds certain criteria.

Since this all happens before the data is generated, FDA tends to be conservative when handing out SPAs.

ImmuPharma has also received sign-off in Europe and Japan that will allow it move into the final clinical trial stage.

Cenkos said it has analysed Lupuzor and believes it has blockbuster potential.

This is primarily because it may eventually prove more efficacious than treatments currently on the market, such as the recently launched GlaxoSmithKline drug, Benlysta, and those currently making their way out onto the market.

The broker is predicting peak sales potential of US$2 billion based on some fairly conservative assumptions.

“We have analysed the Lupus market and believe that despite competitor products beginning Phase III trials, the mechanism of action for Lupuzor is unique and could position it as a blockbuster in the Lupus market,” said Malik.

In IPP-204106, the group also has a phase II cancer drug that has shown some “very promising survival data”, the analyst added.

“The data from preclinical studies is compelling, particularly in tumours that are difficult to treat, where the peptide demonstrated broad-spectrum anti-tumour activity,” he explained.

At 11.40am, the shares were changing hands for 54 pence (down 0.88 pence on the day), which is towards the bottom of its recent trading range.

The unveiling of a partner for Lupuzor would undoubtedly be a major catalyst for the stock.

Of course ImmuPharma previously had a deal for Cephalon that was worth as much as US$500 million in milestone and revenue payments.

However, the US biotech was forced to hand back the rights to the treatment following its takeover by Israeli group Teva.

Cenkos believes ImmuPharma could go down a similar route and find a new commercial partner willing to make a significant upfront payment, milestones and royalties to acquire the Lupuzor rights.

However there is an alternative.

“If it were to fund the product and complete the last phase of clinical trials using a contract research organisation, then instead of seeing a ‘teens’ based royalty on sales, we could see a much larger share of the potential upside – perhaps a revenue share model where net sales were split 50:50 and a contract sales force (specialist) was used to market the product,” Malik said.

“We already know that the bulk of sales in similar indications tend to come from specialist doctors and this often requires a much smaller and focused sales force – which means that there isn’t always a requirement for a large pharma sales team.”

Notification of Interim Results


http://www.moneyam.com/action/news/showArticle?id=4448448

Starting to recover, strong buying today. Up 8% today

12.5% rise today

up nearly 10%

:-))