LONDON, July 16 (Reuters) - U.S. oil prices held firm near $41 on Friday as the most robust demand growth for more than two decades pushes OPEC to keep pumping crude at near capacity, leaving world supplies vulnerable to the slightest production hiccups.
U.S. light crude rose 18 cents to $40.95 a barrel, just a hair away from a six-week high of $41.12 touched on Wednesday. And prices are near June's $42.45 peak, a record for the contract's 21-year history.
European benchmark Brent was up 29 cents at $37.77 a barrel, buoyed by an exceptionally strong cash crude market in the North Sea.
Gains were spurred this week by an unexpected decline in U.S. crude and gasoline inventories, plus worries that heating oil supplies are not being built-up quickly enough ahead of the winter.
The U.S. oil data added to fears over supply disruptions at a time when output capacity was being stretched by rapidly growing demand -- estimated to be expanding at 2.5 million barrels per day (bpd) this year, its fastest clip in 24 years, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA).
The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is proceeding with its planned output ceiling hike of 500,000 bpd from August 1 in an effort to cool prices, but it looks unlikely to mean more crude.
The group, which controls around half the world's oil exports, is already pumping nearly two million bpd over its new 26 million bpd August quota, very near the its maximum capacity.
With little to discuss, the cartel cancelled next week's planned ministerial meeting. It will next meet September 15.
"The cartel perhaps concluded that aside from the Saudis, the rest of the group is pretty much tapped out in terms of exports," said Ed Meir, analyst at brokers Man Financial. "Therefore, having a meeting to discuss more 'phantom' quota increases would be of little use."
Kuwait said on Thursday it had spare oil production capacity of almost 100,000 bpd, while Saudi Arabia, which has been producing around 9.1 million bpd, has the capacity to crank it up to 10.5 million bpd.
"The meeting is cancelled because the market is stable. There is no problem at the moment because the decision to increase 500,000 bpd from August 1 is in place," OPEC president Purnomo Yusgiantoro told Reuters on Friday.
HEATING OIL WORRIES
Distillate supplies in the United States, where the Northeast region is a major winter-time consumer of heating oil, have emerged as an early driver for the energy complex as dealers fretted over the pace of pre-winter inventory building.
Heating oil futures reached a year-and-a-half high of $1.1080 a gallon this week, the strongest on record for July, when gasoline is typically the market's strongest product. On Friday, it was trading up 22 points at $1.1008.
Seeking to avoid panic buying, the U.S. government Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Thursday there was plenty of time to boost heating oil inventories before the winter heating season arrives, so traders should not bid up fuel prices.
It's much too early to worry about heating fuel supplies, EIA administrator Guy Caruso told reporters.
This week's EIA data reported a significant build up of 2.7 million barrels in middle distillate inventories for the week ended July 9, putting them three percent above this time last year.
Caruso conceded that the United States came out of the spring with relatively low heating oil stocks, but added that if crude imports continued to average 10 million bpd and there were no major refinery outages, heating oil stocks should be in the "normal zone" by November.
Still analysts said that, while stock levels looked comfortable on the surface, rapid economic growth could place more demands on inventories than in previous years.
Tetsu Emori, chief commodities strategist at Mitsui Bussan Futures in Tokyo, said fund speculators would remain on the buy side of the market on persistent fears of disruptions to crude flows in Iraq and possible refinery outages in the United States.
"There are no bearish factors in the market. Already we are over $40 and there is still room to move higher," he said.

xmortal,

Thanks for posting that, and the oil market currently has a healthy look about it!

Hardman however, IMHO, is all about sentiment, and a couple of decent exploration results will drive this higher even if crude retraces.

Nice little tick up this morning!

yes, andy.... The up trend is established so im just riding it while it last. I placed a punt on here and im sure it willmove slowly but surely on drilling and high oil price expectations. Enjoy

Good to see that Fidelity have built up a 6% stake. They tend to get things right more than not.

Hardman Resources Limited
03 August 2004




STOCK EXCHANGE / MEDIA RELEASE TO AIM

RELEASE DATE: 3 August 2004

CONTACT: Kathryn Davies (08 9321 6881)

RE: CHANGE IN SUBSTANTIAL HOLDING

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Please note that Hardman Resources Ltd was notified on 3 August 2004 that
entities owned or managed by Fidelity Management and Research Company Limited
and Fidelity International Limited hold 39,459,934 shares in the Company,
representing 6.08%.




TED ELLYARD
MANAGING DIRECTOR

Described by IC as having "good looking assets, with plenty of upside". Sounds sexy to me!!

Bought in yesterday instead of ETQ. Last bit of dosh left now fully invested.
Did I make the right choice?

Mickyskint

mickey,

Hope so!

personally I think both shares are speculative, and ETQ is being ramped on ADVFN, and to a lesser extent here, which would make me wary of investing there.

Hardman have an whole lot of wells to drill in the near future, so worth a speculative punt at least IMHO.

tipped in the Sunday Telegraph, but did not make much impact!!

Security alert in Mauritania!! Stock down about 13% in early trading. Assuming this blows over, could it be a buying oppotunity?

""could it be a buying oppotunity?""

Could be, or things could get worse before getting better

The main politcal concern in Mauritania is an invasion from neighbouring country

Mauri a poor country, has only a population of about 3 million so we can assume not much in line of defence

I sold about 80% of my holding last week at circa 92p, but that based was on a new fangled chart system that I devised
good luck

jal

gallick,

Thanks for the info, was a tad concerned for a moment there!

here are the real news.... TOP UP time

Army officers held in Mauritania


Ould Taya himself came to power in a coup
Several military officers are said to have been arrested in the Mauritanian capital, Nouakchott.
The government has not commented on the reports which link the detentions to a possible coup plot against President Maaoya Sid'Ahmed Ould Taya.

President Taya survived a coup attempt in June 2003 which sparked off days of fighting in the capital.

The capital is reported to be calm, but some new secuity measures. Troops have also been confined to their barracks.

Sources have been talking about 18 officers being arrested and appear to be suggesting the involvement of Islamists.

Some 120 soldiers are still being held in prison awaiting trial following the failed coup last year.

President Taya took power in a bloodless coup in December 1984 and has been re-elected three times since.

To Coup or not to Coo.............?

Well Invasion, Coup, Civil unrest, the end result is that only Oil Companies know how to get the Oil out of the ground or sea.

Whoever is in power, they are beholding to the expertise of these companies.

I do not believe these investments are in peril because of these events.

It is not even making the National News on the BBC.

I have used it as a buying opportunity and am already up on the day.

how can people be frightened out of this and yet stick money into PET under far more serious conditions in Iraq?

eurofox,

A VERY good question!

(and I have a few PET, but do realise it's a total risk!)

LONDON, Aug 10 (Reuters) - Shares in British oil and gas company Premier Oil Plc fell on Tuesday amid tension in the African state of Mauritania, where the company has major projects.
Unconfirmed reports of a foiled putsch swirled round the capital of the coup-prone former French colony earlier this week.
Premier Oil shares were down 3.0 percent at 581 pence at 0823 GMT, one of the main losers in the FTSE 250 mid-cap index < .FTMC>.
A Premier Oil spokesman in London said the company was monitoring the situation in Mauritania, echoing similar comments from Australian energy firms Hardman Resources and Woodside Petroleum , which also operate in the country.
Despite the situation in Mauritania, Numis Securities kept a "buy" rating on Premier Oil, arguing that its offshore drilling programme was unlikely to be affected in the short-term.
"At present, we see the tension as a temporary set back and retain our buy recommendation," Numis said in a research note.


Also SEY and Woodside have gone up since the big drop this morning

Hi, I just sold my EEN for a lost of 25% I used the money to top up HNR. Wait and see going back up again as the situations develops for the better. I suggest you also follow PMO prices too for a better indication of the situation.

LOOKING GOOD SO FAR

Company Reports (Consolidated)
Annual Interim
Period Covered 6 Months 6 Months
Report Currency (AUD) (AUD)

Report Type Prelim Prelim

Profit & Loss 31Dec03 % Change 31Dec02

Revenue 4.17m 62.59 2.57m
Total Income 4.17m 62.59 2.57m
Operating Costs 15.00m
~Depreciation 0.75m 297.89 0.19m
Operating Result (10.83m) - 2.57m
Pretax Profit/Loss (10.83m) -929.99 (1.05m)
Net Profit/Loss (10.83m) -929.99 (1.05m)
Net Attributable (10.83m) -929.99 (1.05m)
Retained Profit/Loss (10.83m) -929.99 (1.05m)

Balance Sheet-Assets

Total Current Assets 35.04m -23.50 45.8m
~Cash & Equivalents 30.91m -27.40 42.58m
~Receivables 2.31m 20.29 1.92m
Fixed Assets 93.31m 57.66 59.18m
Total Assets 128.35m 22.26 104.98m

Balance Sheet-Liabilities

Total Liabilities 8.87m 117.26 4.08m
~Current Liabilities 8.68m 112.45 4.08m
~Deferred Liabilities 0.2m
Shareholders Equity 119.48m 18.41 100.9m