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NORTHERN PETROL ???? (NOP)     

LEEWINK - 12 Aug 2003 11:59

looks like its hit oil, don't know whats gonna happen, any idea's ???

NielsJensen - 17 Aug 2005 20:13 - 262 of 567

No, it's not a "no"; it's more like a "we don't know yet, and we are still interpreting results and evaluating options". Wait a week and perhaps you'd be surprised.

mpls - 21 Aug 2005 00:09 - 263 of 567

FINESS on ADVFN has visited the Sandhills site recently, apparently there is a Ford vehicle on site with a company name of REEVE. Reeve is a wireline logging company.

http://www.reeves-wireline.com
http://www.reeves-wireline.com/animationsw2/shuttle_reamershoe.swf

Why log if no traces detected while drilling? If logging is being carried out then one outcome of this logging will be a measure of the interval depth over which any hydrocarbons were found. I believe this result would be financially sensitive and as such would be RNSed. So there is a good chance of an RNS from NOP on Monday. According to rogerinns on ADVFN "logging results should be available very quickly ... I would anticipate a RNS on Monday hopefully saying that hyrocarbons have been encountered over such and such a depth and that preparions are now in hand to flow test the well."

http://www.advfn.com/cmn/fbb/thread.php3?id=3133083&from=11358&to=11359

NielsJensen - 21 Aug 2005 15:31 - 264 of 567

Read section 6 in chapter: Nature of the industry":

http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/cgs005.htm

Make of it what you will...

mpls - 21 Aug 2005 17:41 - 265 of 567

Nobody knew last week if Sandhills-2 was a success or even found hydrocarbons, to blatantly say the oil well was dry was wrong. However, if logging is being done and if stem test is to be done then next week will be different. Will it be a company maker for NOP? Will the well be plugged or completed?

NB:

Plugged = bad
Completed = good

NielsJensen - 21 Aug 2005 19:30 - 266 of 567

Obviously managemet cannot comment until they know for sure. My bet is for completion. :)

mpls - 22 Aug 2005 17:23 - 267 of 567

Well NOP are going to try again with Sandhills-2Z, we'll have to wait a little longer to see what the testing of Sandhills-2Z gives us. NOP anticipated that it will take a further ten to fifteen days to drill to the top of the Great Oolite formation, core and perform an open hole test.

Next important RNS could be Wed 31 August -> Mon 5th September. My money is on Mon 5th September.

Nobody knows the result yet, this includes the Geologists and Oil men working at Sandhills, to say Sandhills is a success or failure at this moment is wrong. In fact all we can say is that Sandhills is not a failure - otherwise the hole would've been plugged and abandoned.

**********************************************************

LOGGED OIL IN SANDHILLS-2 LEADS TO DECISION TO DRILL SANDHILLS-2Z

Northern Petroleum Plc, announces that in conjunction with partners the
Sandhills-2 appraisal well has encountered continuous 100% oil shows over a 62
ft. interval of true vertical thickness with calculated oil saturations up to
38%.

The reservoir formation was intersected at a greater depth than anticipated and
is now considered to be within the oil-water transition zone. Calculations made
from the electric log data have established a significantly deeper calculated
oil-water contact than that previously calculated from the Sandhills-1 well
data.

It has been decided to undertake a sidetrack drilling operation, Sandhills-2Z,
to drill out from under the 9 5/8 inch casing shoe further to the north towards
Sandhills-1 to a location where the main oolitic reservoir unit is projected to
be within the oil zone.

The operating programme will be to drill an 8 inch hole to the top of the
Great Oolite formation, set the 7 inch liner casing, change over the mud-system
and then to proceed to core the reservoir unit. Testing will take place in the
open hole below the 7 inch casing. It is anticipated that these operations will
take a further ten to fifteen days.

Following the completion of operations at Sandhills-2Z the rig will be
mobilised to the Bouldnor Copse-1 exploration well site further west on the
Isle of Wight.

SUMMARY OF DRILLING OPERATIONS TO NOON ON 21ST AUGUST 2005

The Sandhills-2 well was drilled to a measured depth of 4185 feet and due to
the intersection of the Great Oolite formation at a lower elevation than
projected the decision was taken to reserve operational flexibility and not to
run a 7 inch liner casing or change the mud-system. These are now available for
the drilling of Sandhills-2Z which now has the benefit of being started in open
hole.

An attempt was made to core in the open hole but the curvature of the deviated
uncased hole proved too great and drilling was recommenced to a final measured
depth of 4320 feet following which the well was logged and a velocity
check-shot survey taken.


brane - 25 Aug 2005 10:54 - 268 of 567

Open a buy bet in
Northern Petroleum
Suggests Charles Vintcent of Topspreadbets.com
The Bet: We recommend opening a buy bet on Northern Petroleum at 10 pound a penny on the December contract quoted at 70.9 - 74.7p. The stop loss is an end of day close below 57p on the cash price. The target is 110p initially.

Fundamental View: This week shares in Northern have fallen back on a statement on its drilling programme on the Isle of Wight. They trade at 72.6p in the middle and even at 70p the company would be worth only 42 million pounds. Northern actually has assets across several countries. We estimate its Dutch assets could be worth 40 million pounds, its Italian assets up to 20 million pounds, a small stake in a Guyane prospect another 15 million pounds, it has cash of 5 million pounds and Spanish assets worth 2 million pounds. It has a stake in the Avington Field in Hampshire worth at least 4 million pounds and so even if the IoW is a write-off this stock is cheap. we think the market has called the IoW wrong and further drilling could prove this up within days. This is a cracking bet to be opening up.

The value of investments can go down as well as up. Investing in equities can lose you part or all of your capital. Smaller company shares can be relatively illiquid and thus hard to trade. And that makes such investments more of a high risk than larger company shares. Financial spread betting is by definition a higher risk investment, losses from which are potentially unlimited. Topspreadbets.com is owned by t1ps.com Ltd which is authorised and regulated by the FSA and can be contacted at 49 Rivington St, London EC2A 3QB or on 0207 033 9389

Technical View: The general charting rule is that the longer the base a stock makes after a calamitous decline, the more bullish one is entitled to be about it. As far as extended bases are concerned, you are unlikely to see one longer than the near 5 year period notched up by Northern between late 1998 and early 2003. At the very least one would expect the stock to achieve an initial target as high as former late 1996 support at 110p, although the idea here is that the stock will eventual revisit where it was 10 years ago at 250p. Only a weekly close below the 200 day moving average, now at 57p would even begin to hurt the bull argument and a great technical recovery play.

Conclusion: Open along bet on Northern Petroleum with an end of day close stop loss below 57p. The target is 110p initially.

paulmasterson1 - 25 Aug 2005 20:37 - 269 of 567


Hi All,

NOP looking good for 1 again very soon methinks, before profit taking that is.

I wonder if we will hear something on the Netherlands very soon too ?

Cheers,
PM

mbugger - 26 Aug 2005 19:50 - 270 of 567

If nop are coring and sidetrack entry underway ,does this infer oil is present and are now about to put numbers on scale of play.Any views Paulm.

mpls - 26 Aug 2005 21:16 - 271 of 567

NOP have found oil but in at a low saturation, 38%, Sandhills-2, this particular well is the Oil Water Contact (OWC) but the intpretation og the well logging, including Seismic, has identified a possible trapped oil column hence the current operations, Sandhill-2Z, are side tracking from approximately half way down the Sandhills-2 well in an attempt to intersect, log and test this trapped oil column.

You could say NOP are getting two drills for the price of 1 and a bit!

mpls - 26 Aug 2005 21:18 - 272 of 567

... and the current operations started last Sunday are expected to take 10-15 days. So By the next drilling update on Wednesday TD could've been reached and testing started shortly after.

NielsJensen - 28 Aug 2005 13:21 - 273 of 567

Here's a news item from the local paper on the Oil of Wight:

Isle of Wight County Press

paulmasterson1 - 29 Aug 2005 21:01 - 274 of 567


Niels Hi,

Are you a photographer for the press ?

Not such good sounds coming from NOP though ....

Sandhills 2Z, will cost an extra 250,000 to 300,000.
The likelihood now was there was less oil there unless the reservoir unit extended further to the west.
"It was disappointing to find this but it has some up-sides to it," said Mr Musgrove, who added there was likely to be a higher proportion of oil to water than previously thought.
If the reservoir is small it means the cost of recovery per barrel will be higher but this is likely to be offset by the recent sharp rise in oil prices.



.... not exactly the black-gold-rush everyone was hoping for, so I hope they get moving in the Netherlands soon, before the S.P plummets to 50p or lower ....

Cheers,
PM

paulmasterson1 - 29 Aug 2005 22:30 - 275 of 567

NEW YORK (AFX) - Crude and oil product prices struck new record highs in
electronic trade Monday, as a major hurricane threatened production in the Gulf
of Mexico.
Front-dated crude futures were recently up $3.13, or 4.7%, at $69.26 a
barrel, having touched $70.80 earlier in the session, the first time the
contract has traded above the $70 a barrel level.
Meanwhile, natural gas futures rose a staggering 17% to $11.48 per British
thermal unit, and earlier climbed above $12.
Unleaded gasoline futures rose 20 cents, or 10.4%, to $2.128 a gallon and
heating oil jumped 14 cents, or 7.6%, to $1.98 a gallon.
Traders have been eyeing Hurricane Katrina's progress for the last week and
crude for October delivery struck a peak of $67.95 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange Friday to mark the last intraday record for a benchmark
contract.
But prices dropped $1.36, or 2%, late in the session to close at a three-day
low of $66.13 as fears abated.
Over the weekend, the storm - which late last week had been classed as
category 1 - gathered ground and hit land early Monday as a category 4 or 5
storm.

Gulf of Mexico and onshore oil and natural gas facilities had closed ahead
of the storm, a threat to facilities at Port Fourchon, La., near New Orleans,
which handles around one-sixth of U.S. oil supply, and rigs in the Gulf of
Mexico.
Agbeli Ameko, managing partner at First Enercast, said crude prices could
push toward $75 a barrel
today, while natural gas may move toward $12 per
million British thermal units.
The hurricane will have a significant short- and long-term impact on energy
markets, impacting production off shore and on shore, and shutting in refining
and processing facilities. The Minerals Management Service will report shut-in
statistics at 2.00 p.m. Eastern Time.
As the shut-ins persist, increasing winter supply concerns, the potential
for $80 a barrel crude
and $15 per million British thermal units natural gas are
realistic, said Ameko.
"Katrina is approaching as a category five hurricane at a time in which the
supply and demand is in a delicate balance" he said.
The long-term impact on supply will make the market vulnerable to winter
price spikes if temperatures are colder than average, he said.
The sharp spike in oil prices sent stock futures sharply lower. Dow futures
were last down 35 at 10,372, S&P 500 futures were down 3.90 at 1,202 and Nasdaq
100 futures were down 8 at 1,555.50.
Energy shares, in contrast, rallied strongly. Exxon Mobil was last up 1.6%
at $59.35 in premarket trade on Instinet. Valero gained 3.5% at $92.50,
TotalFina added 0.8% to $126.84 and BP was up 3.1% at $68.15.
In the oil services sector, Schlumberger was up $1.7% at $83.50.

NielsJensen - 30 Aug 2005 09:31 - 276 of 567

Paul, no I don't work for the press.

paulmasterson1 - 30 Aug 2005 15:03 - 277 of 567


Niels Hi,

Well, good pics anyway :)

Cheers,
PM

NielsJensen - 06 Sep 2005 10:35 - 278 of 567

Thanks Paul. The fact that the oil/water separation layer was found deeper than anticipated could be good news; it could mean that there might be more recoverable oil than calculated. 2Z should be done by today. Tomorrows drilling update may prove interesting. Note that Evolution still has a target of 141p for this baby.

TheMaster - 07 Sep 2005 09:20 - 279 of 567

Weekly Drill report released, target depth reached and now coring, since not plugged then assume oil found?

mpls - 07 Sep 2005 19:39 - 280 of 567

The RNS today was only disappointing in as much that we'll have to wait a few more days until we know the length of column of the oil and the % saturation etc together with the completion of the well so that a test programme can begin while the rig moves to Boulder. Note that I believe the well is more likely to be completed due to the length of time coring has been going on. If the well was to be abandoned then I think that would've happended before now rather than going through with coring.

The Depth last Wednesday was some 4300ft and they were going a circa 300ft per day so the current TD of some 4750ft would've been reached sometime last Thursday evening. So, this means Coring must've got underway Friday. So the coring operations had been going on about 5 days until this Morning. Coring is slow but I recall someone saying it would take about 5 days. So it looks like logging etc could start before the end of the week. I think Logging could only take a day or so, so there's an outside chance of an RNS before the end of Friday. Again, Monday is the most likely day.

The RNS today is actually mildy positive in my view, the fact that they have been coring for my estimated 5 days means that unlike Sandhills-2 where the curvature was too great NOP have been able to core at Sandhills-2Z.

paulmasterson1 - 08 Sep 2005 13:04 - 281 of 567


Hi All,

NOP looks like news is coming, started moving up again earlier ....

Pretty much ALL buys since 11am ....

Cheers,
PM
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