Ah decisions, decisions, decisions! Lol. May wait here for a dip to enter, if one happens. Problem being, if up in Oz overnight then would be marked up from the open. Watching with a close eye though. The fall in DNX seems a bit of an over-reaction.

DNX is far to far imo.

4.56, would expect a little resistance (from advfn) around the 50 day SMA.

If it gets below 4.60 it has to be a buy.

If it dropped under 460 then I would be in, but don't think it will fall that far. Seems to be bouncing now. 456 would be a good price though to go long.

I'm in for the long term on this one. Got great confidence in it. I believe the recent rises will pale in comparison to when the taps get switched on next year hopefully akin to the Melrose Resources story.

I reckon you are spot on wypanb.

I have just decided that I am definitely a no sell of these.

From UK-Analyst tonight:

"Premier Oil stock added 23p to 608p after a warmly welcomed update on its Tiof-6 appraisal well in Mauritania. it said that the maximum rate the well had been flowed at was approximately 12,400 barrels of oil plus 11.0 million standard cubic feet of gas per day constrained by a 104/64 inch choke. The well test is currently in the main flow period and the well is flowing at a stable rate of approximately 9,150 barrels of oil per day in the main flow period constrained by a 72/64 inch choke, it added. Premier has a 9.231% interest in the well, with Hardman Resources having a 21.6% interest (up 7.75p to 84.25p) and Roc Oil a 3.693% interest (up 2p to 82p). BG Group also has a 11.63% interest."

Edited this from hotcopper, the original from yahoo biz will not load.

Hotcopper

Posted by daski00

INTERVIEW:Australia's Hardman Surges On Mauritania Hopes 15/02/05 19:43:00

By Stephen Bell
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

"Over the next few months we'll move from analyzing the results, to
considering whether we should go to the next stage and move toward a field
development concept," Hardman director Scott Spencer told Dow Jones Newswires.
"We think the appraisal results are pretty good, so it looks like that is the
path we'll be going down," said Spencer.


&

Hardman declined to comment on market speculation that part of its strong
rebound Tuesday may have been due to renewed takeover talk involving U.K.-based
BG Group PLC (BRG), a minority owner of Tiof.
"We hear rumors all the time," Spencer said. At current prices Hardman is
valued at about A$1.37 billion.

Finally

A Woodside Petroleum spokesman declined to comment on the latest Mauritania
success.
"The appraisal results will take several months to analyze," the spokesman
said, adding that Woodside will unveil "contingent resources" for Tiof Wednesday
in its annual reserve statement.
Last year Woodside said that Tiof could become the company's second production
hub off the west African coast by 2008, based on a stand-alone development
costing up to A$2 billion.

Woodside managing director Don Voelte spoke to The Age.

.http://www.theage.com.au/news/Business/Woodside-set-to-step-on-the-gas/2005/02/16/1108500152881.html

Right at the end of the interview he slipped in this note concerning Tiof 6 and Hardman initial estimates.

..............., Woodside's first-pass contingent recoverable reserve estimate for the Tiof oil discovery offshore from Mauritania of 287 million barrels.

Mr Voelte said there was agreement on Tiof being a 1 billion barrel find (in-situ).

The eventual recovery factor could come in higher than Woodside has applied in its initial estimate. Tiof partner Hardman has suggested that 40 per cent - or 400 million barrels - is more likely

http://moneyam.uk-wire.com/cgi-bin/articles/200502170924287159I.html

FOGL's update on seismic surveys.

Hardman own 22.5% I believe and of course a slice of FOGL.


Movement for FOGL but none for Hardman!

Typical.

Unbelievable...sp down .30p again so far this morning.!!!???!!

MS if you are lurking...I tried your tandoori chicken recipe last night...delicious!! thanks for that.

sandrew64

Glad you enjoyed it. I'll post more when I get time.

MS

sandrew64 it's down because tiof 6 was already written into the price so say some who know, and becasue of the fumbling about over how much was found.

Seems Woodside are very conservative with figures and curve up the figure later.

It'll probably drop a bit more and hold around 77p imo.

May be time to have a few more then if you feel so inclined.

Oh all right then, as no one else is buying.

lol

We are being read by Australia. (Must be the famous recipes).

Hello the other side of the world.

Feel free to say hello back, it would be nice to meet you.

Hello from Scotland! Maybe I should post a recipe for haggis! Or will I go out and shoot one instead! ;-)

Found this on Rigzone:

Woodside Petroleum Ltd said it believes the Tiof oil discovery off the coast of Mauritania holds about 287 mln barrels of recoverable oil.

The group's chief operating officer Keith Spence said appraisal work is continuing with a development decision possible by mid-year or the third quarter.

"We don't have a development plan yet," Spence told an analyst briefing Related Products

Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production

Generalized Approach to Primary Hydrocarbon Recovery


after Woodside, about one-third owned by the Royal Dutch/Shell group, reported its full year profit results.

Spence said the estimate is a lower than "perhaps people had been expecting" and different development options will need to considered than if the field contained over 400 mln barrels, adding that the field is likely to be developed as a standalone project.

On Monday, Hardman Resources Ltd, an Australian partner in Woodside-operated project, said Tiof might could contain as much as 1 bln barrels of oil but all of this will not be recoverable.

Hardman said the Tiof-6 appraisal well had an encouraging oil flow but the sands tested are of poorer quality than those at joint venture partners' nearby Chinguetti oilfield, already under development.

Woodside owns 53.846 pct of Tiof while Hardman has 21.6 pct. BG Group Plc has 11.63 pct, the Premier Oil group of companies also of the UK, has 9.23 pct and Australia's Roc Oil holds 3.693 pct.



http://www.rigzone.com/news/article.asp?a_id=20424

HDR 1.990 3.11% 1.990 2.010 1.930 2.010 1.910 5,092,734


Up nicely overnight.

bb chat says the profit takers left the building and bid speculation again from BG.

Oilbarrel.com

18.02.2005
Hardman Continues To Impress As Tiof-6 Exceeds Expectations
Hardman Resources, listed on the Australian Stock Exchange and Londons Alternative Investment Market, has made something of a name for itself through a single investment made in 1996. The investment was, of course, the decision to sign up for production sharing contracts for large tranches of acreage off the coast of Mauritania in northwest Africa, then a little known country with no history of offshore prospecting.

Times have certainly changed. Along with operator Woodside Petroleum, BG, Premier Oil and ROC Oil, Hardman now has a near 20 per cent stake in one major oilfield, Chinguetti, due on production in the first quarter of 2006, and has racked up a series of interesting discoveries in the deep offshore.

Mauritanias credentials as an oil and gas province gained further lustre this week when the results of the first successful flow test on the Tiof deposit were released. The Tiof-6 appraisal well flowed at a maximum rate of 12,400 barrels per day plus 11 million cubic feet of gas per day, before stabilising at some 9,150 bpd, exceeding pre-drill expectations. It makes up for the disappointment of the Tiof-3 appraisal well, which failed to flow due to mechanical problems.

The Tiof-6 flow rate is good news for the would-be developers of the deposit, as higher flow rates mean fewer wells, which mean lower project costs.

Thats a pretty good flow rate by anybodys standards, said oil analyst Richard Slape of Seymour Pierce.

Tony Alves of KBC Peel Hunt, which has been working on the assumption of 300 million barrels of recoverable oil, also cheered the higher than expected flow rate.

Yet Tiof, which lies 90 km off the capital and some 25 km north of the Chinguetti oilfield in 1,165 metres of water, is still some way from being declared commercial. Hardman Resources puts the oil-in-place number at some 1 billion barrels of oil but admits recovery factors could be an issue. The operator Woodside Petroleum puts the recoverable reserves at some 289 million barrels - a number by no means to be sniffed but perhaps not the bonanza suggested by the initial discovery results. High flow rates do not automatically translate into higher reserves.

Even so, its adding up to a very nice package for Hardman - and, to a lesser extent, fellow London-listed oil companies BG, Premier, ROC and Sterling Energy. A mere 12 months separate the companies from their first cash flows generated by Mauritanian production: Chinguetti is due onstream early next year at a rate of 75,000 bpd. And the Tev-1 discovery, made in October 2004, lies within tie-back distance of the Chinguetti field.

Its also a good time for the new head of Hardman, recently arrived in Perth, former BP executive Simon Potter who took over the reins after long-standing MD Ted Ellyard stood down for personal and medical reasons at the backend of 2004. Under Ellyard the company made its hugely successful foray into Mauritania - and also picked up substantial acreage in Uganda, Guyane and the Falklands - and saw its market cap surge from less than A$5 million to more than A$1 billion. Potter, 47, a Brit with an Australian wife, has a 20-year career at oil giant BP under his belt, most recently working as head of the joint venture between BP and Alfa Group, TNK-BP, in Russia.

Hes gone from reporting to the board of a 113 billion market cap company to running a company with a market cap of 550 million, observed one industry insider on Potters appointment. There are not that many jobs for someone of his level in Perth and this is a very important move and good news for him, good news for Hardman and good news for Australia.

London-based analysts are keen to meet Potter. The CV looks impressive, said Slape of Seymour Pierce, adding: It is an issue that the management team for quite a large E&P company is so far away with an eight hour time difference. It does make it difficult to talk to them and as long as that remains the case, they will struggle to get a lot of analyst coverage.

Yet as long as Mauritania continues to deliver the goods, it seems likely that Hardman will remain on many investors radar for some time to come.

Is something brewing again for tomorrow?

See what you mean.................. trades picking up!

Monday afternoon and they expect an annopuncement tomorrow as usual, but there wont be one as there is nothing new in Mauritania.

ST and WN are both working on Chinguetti as far as I am aware.

Therre is expectation of a 7-9 drill program by Woodside Q3 this year in blocks a & b I believe.

618 at TMF posted an update there, I will put the link in here, then get cooking............

Fish fingers mash and peas.........

yum!

Ooops, wrong thread.

618 knows what he is about imo


http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9143575

2005 Update

In light of the latest Information Brochure released by Hardman a few days ago and my discussion with Hardman today, I feel it's appropriate to release an update. Several key events has stirred things up a bit since last update Kathryn Davies being made redundant, Tiof-6 being production tested, the intention to drill 7 to 9 exploration wells as opposed to the 2 to 3 the market had expected, and the bullish research note by CSFB citing possible corporate activities and a target price of 2.30.

There had been a lot of strong buying in recent weeks with a series of higher highs and higher lows now established. Trading volume has risen sharply in recent days, peaking on Thursday at just over 12 million shares changing hands. I read somewhere that CSFB has been a net accumulator of over 4 million shares.

Anyway, to make easier reading, I will only bold headings where changes have been made from the previous update.

* Eritrean MOU declared null and void - Not quite sure what happened or what caused them to pull this stunt, but it's history and time to move on - for now. Afrex Ltd, as operator of the JV, is still seeking clarification with the government and trying to work something out with them, I presume. I won't hold my breath for this one.

* Appointment of new CEO Since taken up his position as Hardman CEO in mid-Jan, Simon Potter has done a roadshow to various institutions around the Eastern states of Australia. Unfortunately, these sessions weren't open to the public. I am currently inquiring about the possibility of a more open session for the average retail shareholders.

* Project Finance For Chinguetti Finalised This has been on the card for a while and for whatever reasons, has been delayed for while. The US$100 million deal, which will be used to fund about 80% of Chinguetti, is very much on par with market expectation.

* Dismissal Of Kathryn Davis Given the unflattering nature of the RNS, I have inquired about it and it would appear that it was a case of a company outgrowing the current corporate structure, which is in need of a reshuffle in preparation for the transition to being a producer, and for the next phase of growth. As RG's concise post pointed out, When the breakthrough comes and the fledgling company starts to spread its wings and get involved in development projects, producing operations and perhaps larger scale exploration, then the game changes completely. You need a strong FD with strategic vision, tactical operating savvy and a lot of brawn and brain. It is common for this to trigger a new appointment. This was pretty much in line with what I was told from Hardman.

* Tiof-6 flow test As we all know, flow test result at Tiof-6 peaked at some 12,400 bpod, and currently stabilising around 9,150 bopd in the main flow period constrained by a 72/64 inch choke. This was a good result, as it should help provide a level of comfort/confidence towards the inevitable declaration of commerciality for Tiof. I believe it should provide a good support for the SP around 1.80. Given the JV's previous intention to explore the option of an Early Development Plan, I was curious as to how they were looking to finance this if such plan is to eventuate. However, I've since been led to believe this an Early Development Plan is no longer likely, with a full Field Production Plan now appears most likely and is expected to come onstream around 2009. Previous estimated daily production was 150,000 bopd. However, with the recent good flow rates, this may well be lifted.

In the mean time, in their half yearly report, Woodside has assigned a contingent resource of 289mbo for Tiof. This figure was put together prior to the results of Tiof-5 and Tiof-6, so it is more than likely that this figure could be upgraded to somewhere between 350-400mbo.

Some of you may ask why is Tiof-5 (23m gross oil column) so important? Well, it was a step-out to the east of Tiof-1, and thus, the presence of oil there has extended the boundary of the entire field. To have a flat structure this wide and flowing like a compressed salt dome structure, one cannot help but feel confident that the recoverable reserves will eventually be upgraded to the order of 400mbo or greater. We have to remember that the only boundary that has been properly defined is to the west with the dry hole at Merou-1. However, there's still a lot of daylight between Merou-1 and Tiof-2 which could still potentially hold a significant amount of oil.

* Timor Sea Appraisal Well I believe this is to expected to go ahead some time this month although I have not had official confirmation as yet.

* Falklands South Basin 2D Seismic Since last update, approximately 85% of the 2D seismic has been performed by FOGL, with the remaining to be completed in March. Analysis of the seismic is expected be available in April.

For more info, check out Superhard's post http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9120528

And merecat's excellent post a while back,
http://www.oilvoice.com/m/uploadDetail_public.asp?upload_ID=3037

* Announcement of newly identified targets Since last update, Woodside has announced a 7-9 well exploration/appraisal drilling programme. The final target selection is likely to be known around early to mid Q2, so around April. I suspect the ratio of exploration to appraisal is about 6:3. With the three appraisals between Banda, Tiof (one more to the west of Tiof-2 maybe?) and Pelican.

* Drilling of exploration wells This has since been re-scheduled for May/June. With the Dana JV target in Block 1 likely to be drilled first, whether it be Faucon or Petrel or some other target not known to us as yet. With 3D seismic being shot over PSC A, PSC B, and Block 6, and same has been performed over Block 7, I tend to think that most targets will be in those Blocks, with maybe Sotto in Block 2 being included as a wildcat. Unfortunately, Bogue has dropped off the radar completely for whatever reasons.

* Appointment of CFO I have been led to believe that a CFO may be appointed some time in Q2.

* Farm-in partners for Guyane I posed to question to Hardman as to when we can expect the process to be finalized. They could only say that discussion is still in progress and that the nature of the process means that final agreement will only be reached once the final terms (in terms of equity splitting, funding obligations) are reached. This suggests to me that it is not a matter of no one being interested, but how much equity they want in return of the funding of the drilling costs. This could eventuate anytime between now and June. Realistically, I don't think we will hear of an announcement before June.

* Banda Appraisal This was originally scheduled for March 05. However, it is my understanding that WN will return to Chinguetti duties right through to Q3 when completion process is done for the arrival of Berge Helene, while ST will be off to get some refitting for future exploration purposes after it has completed the current rounds of bottom sections. After which, it will return for duty, and my expectation is that ST will be performing all the exploration and appraisal (including Banda) starting in May until such time when it will be joined by WN after its Chinguetti duties are over.

* Declaration of commerciality for Tiof Barring any major disaster, this is one event that I am now very confident will occur. Most likely to be around Q2/3 this year.

* Completion of Chinguetti wells and arrival of FPSO I had expected the FPSO to arrive at Chinguetti by June/July, but according to SuperHard's up to date information - http://boards.fool.co.uk/Message.asp?mid=9043037 - it may not arrive till August/September 2005.

* Announcement of Lake Albert exploration well Since my last update confirming that a fill in segment of 2D seismic is currently being carried out and Hardman continues to plan towards drilling a well their by the end of 2005. Turaco-3 was found to contain hydrocarbon, but a high level of CO2 has all but eliminated any chance of its commerciality. I asked about the CO2 issue at Turaco-3 and how it affected the prospectivity of the Lake Albert Area 2 acreage. It was said that they are still confident that the CO2 issue may not exist north of Area 1. He also mentioned that with Energy Africa (Tullow) having 50% interests in all three area, Hardman has some access to the Heritage/Energy Africa data, which is fed back into their modelling for a better understanding of the structure in play there. This is a very good advantage, IMHO.

* Drilling of more exploration wells in Mauritania Once all completion operations have been done at Chinguetti, the JV will most likely keep one rig on site to drill further exploration wells right up to Q1 2006, while the other rig may get released.

* Gabon Exploration Drilling As per my earlier post, result of the analysis of the 3D seismic obtained in 2003 has indicated that prospects identified earlier have failed to live up to their expectations. I believe they had been looking for a mean recoverables on the order of 20 mbo for each prospects, which now looks unlikely from their seismic. As such, it has been put on the backburner for now, with exploration drilling pushed back to Q3, and possibly Q4. Having said that, I don't believe they intend to relinquish their acreage in Gabon just yet.

* Chinguetti goes into production Current expectation is March Q1 2006. So far so good, but still a long way to go. Initial daily production rate of 75000bpd (net of about 14250 bpd to Hardman).

* Hedging Policy I believe that Hardman is looking to be slightly over-hedged (being slightly more than 50% hedged) over the first 3 to 5 year period given the current high oil price to lock in some value of their asset. This is partly to satisfy the financing loan from ANZ, which includes a condition to be sufficiently hedged in order to lock in a portion of secured revenue stream.

Good luck and happy investing to all :)

Cheers,
618