JKX are a growth oil and gas company, principally based in the Ukraine, but also present in several other countries, and have recently presented some excellent results.




JKX corporate website : http://www.jkx.co.uk/index.cfm

Poltava Petroleum : http://www.ppc.net.ua/inf_en.html

Annual report 2005 : Click HERE

aldwickk,

Looks like a buy,IMO, in fact there were several large trades that looked like buys today, and we finallly ticked up at the close!

RSI looked oversold, and maybe one or two trackers are finally buying in for the FTSE 250 inclusion?

Comment in today's Shares magazinre;


"strong track record justifies investor confidence"


Fair comment given the recent results and doubling of the dividend IMO.

Former Ukrainian premier vows to scrap Russian gas accord if elected
AFX


MOSCOW (AFX) - Former Ukrainian prime minister Yulia Timoshenko said she would void a gas deal struck by Russia and Ukraine last month if her party wins legislative elections Sunday.

The agreement ended a disruption of Russian gas shipments to Ukraine that also affected western European countries.

This is not just about gas, she told the Russian newspaper Izvestia. 'It's about managing Ukraine from another country. Ukraine is reined in by its debts and risks losing its gas deposits.'

'After the legislative elections the gas accord must absolutely be cancelled. Because of this agreement Ukraine's energy sector is shrouded in secrecy. And some, let's say influential people, in our country are making a lot of money because of this,' she added.

Timoshenko has herself been accused of benefiting from Russian gas import deals in the past.

'If we win the election we will propose our candidates take up certain posts in the security services and will investigate who in Ukraine made a profit from this agreement,' she said.

Timoshenko was dismissed as prime minister in September after disagreements with President Viktor Yushchenko and has since joined opposition ranks.

'If we come in first (in the election) inside the orange coalition, we will be able to take over responsibilities' in the government, she said, referring to the colour of the bloodless 'Orange Revolution' in late 2004 in which she battled for change along with Yushchenko.

newsdesk@afxnews.com

afp/tc

Congratulations on the informed postings on this thread. It's rare in my experience to hear posters agree that a share is fairly valued at the moment. The better the share the less exuberant the posters it seems.

saintserf,

Yes I agree, the 'noisy' threads quite often are for the worst shares.

I hope Timoshenko loses on Sunday, or we may see a slide on Monday if she is genuinely going to scrap the gas deal with Russia.

But of course Ukraine would risk an international backlash if Russia cuts the supply again.

let's hope the present incumbent prevails.

What gas deal does she want to replace it ?

She wont be any position to do anything ; as word on da street is that the looming presidential elections have Yanokovych in by an absolute landslide . 52 %- /35 % with remaining 14 % going to parties of all persuasians { including the loony who wants to re-unite Ukraine with a new "USSR, rebuild the Berlin wall ,and back to the days of isolationism and ten divisions on the Polish border ...lol ,, lol } And believe me Yanokovych certainly wont be offering the traitor a govt portfolio...............................................................................................................................................................................................................................The Kiev Post calls for return of Yucshenko but admits he is well behind in the polls by 49% to 42%... ,,The Kiev Times already talks of ex "Orange " leader , Yuschenko, as having upset the Ukranian fiscal applecart to the point where he has tried to please everyone and ended up pleasing no-one . His own friends including Timoshennko hasve been implicated in all number of smear attacks .. lt is a shame as both his and her demise seems to have arisen from the mass corruption they set out to erradicate . As for Timishenko ? She was partly instrumental in his downfall . Such sophisticated concepts as Collective cabinet decisions are obviously yet to arrive in the Ukraine . Her dealings with Moscow were a diplomatic political mess / and Putin is no-ones fool . He knows he holds all the aces through energy outfits like Gazprom and the like ., ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, A resource i forsee turning into a " bidding war" by winter 2006/7. And after that ? What then ? quit sait ? ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Another resource war as with the UK and Argentina or lraq and the USA ? Whoa -Before this turns into a book ,,lol lm sorry to bang on and on about JKX ..but it has better fundementals than ANY of its peers . ln all variables of measurement of VALUE JKX topped the list barring the potential and actual reserves of Cairns ........ And at the end of the day oil and its revenues will overcome the personality of politics and JKX is more than ideally connected and more than a suitable conduit to becoming a bedpartner with both Russian & Ukranian authorities/ oil companies ---for oil heading WEST .... ...l am awaiting our 4% royalty from the Black sea oil j/x between BP and TPAO ( National oil company of Turkey . Thier first well achieved a few billion blls .........l cant rememeber the spudding date for the second well in which JKX have a 4% stake . For arguments sake let us say the yield is on a parity or even two thirds of first well - as is fully expected,,,well 4% of 4/5 billion bbls of sweet crude is 400/500 million barrels for JKX . For Free!!! ........ ,,,,From this mere acorn is emerging an impressive oak ... & more to the point ten baggers for most of us . Lets not get to greedy now; but to sell now would be INSANE .
My fag packet calcs indicate 500p after USA driving season . ,,,,, ....My only fear as i stated on another thread will be the capacity in the rotary count compounded by a huge hike in workovers . . Well there is no spare capacity . Costs have risen by over 100% to cashburn of $54,000 p/d ( onland ) to 107,000 p/d { offshore .. There exists a dearth of rigs, FPV s and all manner of both upstream infrastucture ; and downstream a lack of suitable facilities like refineries and holding tanks .Rigs are being booked as far ahead as 18 months ; and many suppliers are not offering at the moment . Wherever possible junior producers or highly potential expo oil companies are being bought outright by China , lndia, Russia and the Americas and Canada ..Now Brazil is entering the fray with all heavyweight CEO s of "Big Oil " scrutinizing, siesmic, satallite and magnetic imagery of the area recently at a meeting in a so called " secret meeting " @ JP Morgan in London following last years JP Morgans "secret meeting" about concerns about reserves . No-ne is better @ book cooking than BP or Shell { shell was forced to revise its reserves DOWNWARDS over 10 times by regulators } ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, .....As for JKX locations ? First class . l always said after spending months reserching this rascal i would never sell until 500p .......Now its nearing that figure im am holding -Bigtime ...Relax Get a beautiful blonde , a bottle of first leaf Chateau Latour or Haut Brion ... and juste stare at our results !!!!!! LOL Bonne chance et a demain ...@+ J. ,,,,,,

l apologise to all readers !! My bloody spacer bar wont form paragraphs . l dont usually write like this in one long sentance as some seem to think lol @ + J

Hi FC
A good post
but as you suggest in yr last one
VERY hard to read in that format

I see no problems in the middle/longer term
but as uyou suggest it may be interesting in the immediate short term

TFC,

Thank goodness for word wrap, or I'd have been out by the airport by the time I finished that "sentence" LOL! (only kidding!)

I agree JKX, despite it's meteoric rise over the past couple of years, still has bags of potentail IMO.

The recent results do not reveal the whole picture, as the average H2 production figure was dragged down by the lower H1 figure, distorting (IMO) the true current picture considerably.

Additionally, the price of domestic gas in the Ukraine has nearly doubled since the start of 2006, yet the extra revenue from this does not appear to have been factored into people's estimations of earnings for 2006.

And nobody seems to mention the fact they are trying to tie into an export pipe, and once sucessful, will receive international spot prices for the gas they are permitted to export, rather then the still low, (but much improved), Ukraine domestic price.

Add in the Georgian offshore exploration, which as you rightly say is a company maker in it's own right, and, IMO, we have exciting prospects ahead for JKX.

And then of course we have the chance of commencement of Italian production in 2007, and the current exploration in Turkey and Bulgaria.

5 is the very least I'll be considering selling for, if gas prices continue their upward spiral, JKX is well positioned to benefit.

More power to your ISA I say!

Bon chance et bon weekend!

May I ask the boards views of the possibility of any new parliament falling back to the Gazprom deal of 2004 at $50. Baring in mind the implications of high gas prices to ukraines steel manufacturing that requires a cheap fuel source to survive.

This issue concerns me on the short term the medium / long term is well covered by good posts above.

Regards

D Square,

I have wondered that too, and if the Russian backed guy wins, (and he is currently in the lead and favourite), we MAY see a renegotiation of that deal, but I personally cannot see the entire price rise being reversed completely, maybe a new mid price possibly, but that's just my own speculation, and as I hold, I am clearly biased.

IMO, in the worst case scenario, the price is reversed, and we return to the gas price we were receiving at the END of the 2005 results, which was higher than the average throughout the year!, so we will still see an increase, and we should be exporting part of the production soon, which may well offset anything we lose if the price is cut.

I will try and check to see what percentage of production JKX are allowed to export.

The Ukraine seem to be dragging their feet on an export route for JKX' gas, but they will have to agree eventually, as it's in the written contract.

What excellent post's it's certainly given me a lot more confidence in jkx since it's highs a few week's back
thanks Keith

Thanks Andy for your reply much appreciated.

TFC as always pleasure to read your posts however they are presented.

Regards to all

Amities ....Anybody make much of directors selling collectively .?...Andy -The last thing i heard was none due to chronic domestic shortage ,,, with a codicile to review in the third quater

Amities / One thing that concerns me is the amount of directors who have been selling or exercing their options this past few days .Dr. Paul Davies took up an option of 45,000 @ 16.75p ; and then disposed of 170,000 @ 314p. . Robert Nocoldall took up 187,500 for 16.75p ; and then sold 170,000 for 314p .Bruce Burrows sold 287,000 at 314p AFTER taking an option to buy @16.75p . Robert Dall was awarded an option to buy until 2016 @ 16.75 ; and then disposed of 217,000 @ 314p . ,,,,,,The remaing trades are pure sells . ,,,,,,,,,l dont know if i am going mad; but on one web page i read a director of JKX had sold 925,000 and now its been removed ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I conceed the board have proven rather silly when it comes to trading thier stock in the past . One sold a tranche of a tad shy of 100,000 @ 150p when 4 days later it was 200p . ; Others are equally guilty of selling at massively discounted prices due to awful timing .... Or is it ?? ......So why are they SELLING ?? And why NOW and why COLLECTIVELY lt seems natural to want to lock into profits ; and at a guess that is all that is going on here. What concerns me is the volume of holders with a stop loss of around 290/ 300p being awoken. Could someone be looking to buy JKX on the cheap hence driving the s/p down . ,,,,,,Lets face it , JKX are a midcap oil/ gas company and an IDEAL bolt on acquisition to any of the plethora of "Big oil" drilling outfits in that area; and more to the point its reserves would look impressive to shareholders who hold in "Big Oil " stock .. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Even the charts disagree with jkx s current direction .

I think the end of tax year in the UK could be a major factor in the decision of directors to exercise and sell option shares now. I have done the same myself in similar circumstances. It does not necessarily mean there are are any problems - after all the directors still have substantial shares and options untouched.

All IMHO, WDIK, PDYOR.

camlad

TFC,

A good point,but they have just announced results, so surely they may have been in a closed period before, and therefore this was the earliest they could sell?

And the end of the tax year MAY be another reason, as stated above.

Also, with the Ukraine election outcome uncertain, maybe they sold a few just in case the new regime cosies up to Putin and renegotiates a lower gas price?

To be honest, if I was in their shoes, I would want to turn some shares into cash just to diversify my investments and lessen risk.

Their selling doesn't cause me any concern personally, I think I would probably do the same in their position, and unless it would leave them totally without any holdings, I am not unduly worried.

This was posted on the otherside,

Naftogas owns 10% or so of the shares in JKX. Could the threat of their bankruptcy, or a possible forced sale of the shares be one reason for the recent weakness in JKX's share price?

aldwickk,

Interesting post, and you may well be right there.