.

Borgo sounds like he/she is full of the usual bull****.

Done some research and well after looking at trading patterns.

Prior Sea Lion discovery and Prior Sea Lion flow test - VOLUME SMALL - SP WEAK

Prior Ernest, Prior 14-10/3 - VOLUME JUMP


Looks to me like RKH keep good news locked under wraps with the city unaware, certainly no volume spikes pre the big news of SL Discovery and SL Flow Test.

They look a bit leaky on bad news, always jumps in volume in the days ahead of bad news BUT BOTH TIMES BIG GOOD NEWS HAS COME, the price has been weak and volume normal to low in the days before.


My conclusion therefore is, if volume remains "normal" then things are looking good - contrary to what I thought before actually looking at historic trading.

Ernest was a little different as everyone was waiting for Sea Lion flow test and so ignored Ernest, but it still followed the trend of volume spike before bad news.




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So RKH seem to keep good news locked under wraps, but bad news leaks.........

The only trouble is this time the market collapse has altered normal volume levels so its a bit more murky however, no day over 5m or 6m lately and as this is such a big well you should see a 14-10/3 spike of over 6m on some bad news coming.

Thats not happened.

I see wine-stock is in now over at III. I think thats now a full compliment, OH, WS,B22,G etc.... all long RKH.


+11:05 BUY

Just called by to say hello. Wine-stock 4

Re-established a decent position in RKH & DES these past few days.

All is well, & a very good time to buy IMVHO!!

WS

Another 200K of shorts closed yesterday.

Yesterday open was about 1.25m stock on loan.

Yesterday closed with circa 1.05m stock on loan.


Thats 200K shorts closed on Monday and another 200K closed on Tuesday.

Pic for those that want it :



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Well there you go.

GC, the man who has been spot on every time he posts (which is not often) now calls this a strong buy.

Party time.........not long to go.


13:57 BUY

No Giraffes...No Parrots gclark25 23

I am not going to sit here and say "NM", but I am not going to sit here and give any details of what I may or may not know either.
What I am going to say though is this:
I am no bullsh! tter, I am no pump and dump scam artist, I am no Boil Room scamming engineer who spends all my time in a basement (I mean who the fc/uk is f/f/s!)

I am who I have always been, Honest (sometimes too much) and appreciative of the posters who frequent these boards giving their time and knowledge away for free - that is the true value in these boards, not inside tips.
I do not post here often anymore, but today I have a very big reason to do so -

THIS IS NOW A STRONG BUY IMO!!!

The only extension on the above message I am willing to say is this: post Sea Lion Appraisal results, I doubt we will ever see the shareprice at this level again whilst drilling in the Falklands....if at all ever!
Albeit the markets are sometimes unpredictable.

Again I am not posting this because I want you all to buy on the back of my post - most of you will already be here anyway and I am not an advisor of any sort - I am posting this now because I am now confident enough in my own opinon to do so! I also kow there are a handful of folk out there who would like to know my thoughts. So here they are.

Good luck all....although the element of luck has now erased for me now.

All those buying now....


Might be extremely lucky !

You have a fund offloading, the computer is trading and offloading the stock as per its program, there is no manual intervention the autobot does the selling.

It will keep on selling until the overhang is clear, or until someone stops it selling.

So presently you can buy as much as you want and the autobot is happy to sell to you.

Lucky these computers cannot read bulletin boards......

:)

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Well, circa 35m of net pay is the P50, which according to the volumetrics report is 242MMBO recoverable.

One must not forget that the CPR is old and outdated and is a CPR, the Volumetrics report is current, however, it is not a CPR, its purely a Volumetrics report on present information. The CP can be less strict and conservative with a Volumetrics report than with a CPR.

So, any news of circa 35m of net pay and its all systems go on the P50.

Anything over 35m is party time.

Anything under might mean a lowering of the P50 figure, say 242MMBO to 170MMBO on a volumetrics basis (in line with the CPR) ;)


Upside - the matter of the lower fans, under Sea Lion Main/Lower. There has been a lot of talk of "stacked fans", up to 7 of them. Now, should a fan under Sea Lion lower be full of oil, fizzy oil or whatever and be viable (in terms of porosity and permeability), this is going to really excite things as it brings a huge amount of upside into play. something that is not in any CPR or Volumetrics report.

So a couple of key things with any RNS are firstly, the net pay in the top, circa 35m is fine and anything more is a real bonus, and secondly anything in any new fans under Sea Lion lower fan, this would be classed as a "new discovery".

Now would that not be lovely, the RNS heading of "Successful appraisal and New Oil Discovery".

Come on RKH !

And before anyone says anything, the new 2010 "Volumetric Report on Sea Lion" is still valid. It was never invalidated. It clearly says 242MMBO recoverable.

All that was said, and it was grossly misrepresented, was that IF they had to do a new CPR under the strict rules of a CPR then owing to lack of 3D and lack of drill data they could not say 242MMBO in a CPR.

However, without those restrictions of a CPR the Volumetrics Report is still totally valid and never withdrawn not needed updating, its live, correct and points to P50 of 242MMBO recoverable. I do not know why a lot of people ignore that fact.

FT coverage.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0aff3928-4fef-11e0-9ad1-00144feab49a.html#axzz1GnpwFXVl

Rockhopper Exploration added 7.1 per cent to 229p on talk the Falklands explorer was about to release drilling results from its 14/1-4 appraisal well. Traders said the well was make or break for the Falklands sub-sector. A positive result would see Rockhopper confirm its probable reserve estimate of 170m barrels with the potential for an upgrade, they said.

Post from Stu over at III.


.........Lots of folk talking about net pay at the moment, that's fine, but it's not what we're here for..

1). http://i54.tinypic.com/by0eh.png

2). http://i54.tinypic.com/15popvt.png

Obviously additional Net Pay is good, but people should be looking for a deep OWC more than ANYTHING else.

This isn't a numbers RNS, this RNS is all about proving the 40% sell off was wrong. There's an 80% gain to be had here just by reasserting that Sea Lion is good for 170MM bbl.


Big net pay is not required.

OWC is the main event here.



Blow the doubters out of the water, or the water out of the doubters......


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.

Tuesday close stock on loan figure got updated. It was not 200K of shorts closed on Tuesday 15th, but 350K shorts closed.

Tuesday 15th close outstanding stock on loan was 900K.

I will let you know how many shorts closed yesterday with new figures for yesterdays close, around lunch time.

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A lot of small "O" trade sells today, looks as it a lot of small PI's people were desperate to close their positions on any bounce.

If the news is good, more fool them.

Its a bit of a PI phenomenon of missing out, they hold through the pain, rush to sell when it eases a little and miss all the big rise.........