JKX are a growth oil and gas company, principally based in the Ukraine, but also present in several other countries, and have recently presented some excellent results.




JKX corporate website : http://www.jkx.co.uk/index.cfm

Poltava Petroleum : http://www.ppc.net.ua/inf_en.html

Annual report 2005 : Click HERE

Hi FC
A good post
but as you suggest in yr last one
VERY hard to read in that format

I see no problems in the middle/longer term
but as uyou suggest it may be interesting in the immediate short term

TFC,

Thank goodness for word wrap, or I'd have been out by the airport by the time I finished that "sentence" LOL! (only kidding!)

I agree JKX, despite it's meteoric rise over the past couple of years, still has bags of potentail IMO.

The recent results do not reveal the whole picture, as the average H2 production figure was dragged down by the lower H1 figure, distorting (IMO) the true current picture considerably.

Additionally, the price of domestic gas in the Ukraine has nearly doubled since the start of 2006, yet the extra revenue from this does not appear to have been factored into people's estimations of earnings for 2006.

And nobody seems to mention the fact they are trying to tie into an export pipe, and once sucessful, will receive international spot prices for the gas they are permitted to export, rather then the still low, (but much improved), Ukraine domestic price.

Add in the Georgian offshore exploration, which as you rightly say is a company maker in it's own right, and, IMO, we have exciting prospects ahead for JKX.

And then of course we have the chance of commencement of Italian production in 2007, and the current exploration in Turkey and Bulgaria.

5 is the very least I'll be considering selling for, if gas prices continue their upward spiral, JKX is well positioned to benefit.

More power to your ISA I say!

Bon chance et bon weekend!

May I ask the boards views of the possibility of any new parliament falling back to the Gazprom deal of 2004 at $50. Baring in mind the implications of high gas prices to ukraines steel manufacturing that requires a cheap fuel source to survive.

This issue concerns me on the short term the medium / long term is well covered by good posts above.

Regards

D Square,

I have wondered that too, and if the Russian backed guy wins, (and he is currently in the lead and favourite), we MAY see a renegotiation of that deal, but I personally cannot see the entire price rise being reversed completely, maybe a new mid price possibly, but that's just my own speculation, and as I hold, I am clearly biased.

IMO, in the worst case scenario, the price is reversed, and we return to the gas price we were receiving at the END of the 2005 results, which was higher than the average throughout the year!, so we will still see an increase, and we should be exporting part of the production soon, which may well offset anything we lose if the price is cut.

I will try and check to see what percentage of production JKX are allowed to export.

The Ukraine seem to be dragging their feet on an export route for JKX' gas, but they will have to agree eventually, as it's in the written contract.

What excellent post's it's certainly given me a lot more confidence in jkx since it's highs a few week's back
thanks Keith

Thanks Andy for your reply much appreciated.

TFC as always pleasure to read your posts however they are presented.

Regards to all

Amities ....Anybody make much of directors selling collectively .?...Andy -The last thing i heard was none due to chronic domestic shortage ,,, with a codicile to review in the third quater

Amities / One thing that concerns me is the amount of directors who have been selling or exercing their options this past few days .Dr. Paul Davies took up an option of 45,000 @ 16.75p ; and then disposed of 170,000 @ 314p. . Robert Nocoldall took up 187,500 for 16.75p ; and then sold 170,000 for 314p .Bruce Burrows sold 287,000 at 314p AFTER taking an option to buy @16.75p . Robert Dall was awarded an option to buy until 2016 @ 16.75 ; and then disposed of 217,000 @ 314p . ,,,,,,The remaing trades are pure sells . ,,,,,,,,,l dont know if i am going mad; but on one web page i read a director of JKX had sold 925,000 and now its been removed ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,I conceed the board have proven rather silly when it comes to trading thier stock in the past . One sold a tranche of a tad shy of 100,000 @ 150p when 4 days later it was 200p . ; Others are equally guilty of selling at massively discounted prices due to awful timing .... Or is it ?? ......So why are they SELLING ?? And why NOW and why COLLECTIVELY lt seems natural to want to lock into profits ; and at a guess that is all that is going on here. What concerns me is the volume of holders with a stop loss of around 290/ 300p being awoken. Could someone be looking to buy JKX on the cheap hence driving the s/p down . ,,,,,,Lets face it , JKX are a midcap oil/ gas company and an IDEAL bolt on acquisition to any of the plethora of "Big oil" drilling outfits in that area; and more to the point its reserves would look impressive to shareholders who hold in "Big Oil " stock .. ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Even the charts disagree with jkx s current direction .

I think the end of tax year in the UK could be a major factor in the decision of directors to exercise and sell option shares now. I have done the same myself in similar circumstances. It does not necessarily mean there are are any problems - after all the directors still have substantial shares and options untouched.

All IMHO, WDIK, PDYOR.

camlad

TFC,

A good point,but they have just announced results, so surely they may have been in a closed period before, and therefore this was the earliest they could sell?

And the end of the tax year MAY be another reason, as stated above.

Also, with the Ukraine election outcome uncertain, maybe they sold a few just in case the new regime cosies up to Putin and renegotiates a lower gas price?

To be honest, if I was in their shoes, I would want to turn some shares into cash just to diversify my investments and lessen risk.

Their selling doesn't cause me any concern personally, I think I would probably do the same in their position, and unless it would leave them totally without any holdings, I am not unduly worried.

This was posted on the otherside,

Naftogas owns 10% or so of the shares in JKX. Could the threat of their bankruptcy, or a possible forced sale of the shares be one reason for the recent weakness in JKX's share price?

aldwickk,

Interesting post, and you may well be right there.

aldwickk,

Interesting post, and you may well be right there.

Up 23p this morning, been on quite a bull run since Tuesday too, when it was around 311.

soul,

yes not sure why we have risen so quickly, on no news, but it's a nice finish to the week!

Maybe some new tax year buying?

Soul,

Well a 10% rise on the day, and no news!

Oil sector went wild today. virtually everything I follow is up!

Sounds like you picked well, Andy. My NOP is up, however VOG is languishing pending news in May and BLR experiencing stormy weather while waiting for news from Colombia. Are you still in BLR?

Soul,

No I have never held BLR, although I have checked them out from time to time.

VOG is, IMHO, a speculation, and I wouldn't buy at the current price, but if I had bought lower down I would hold with a tightish stop. Without any news expected in the near future, I would think the price may drift.

I wonder why JKX shot up so much today?

Although the oil and gas sector had an excellent day, JKX' rise is far higher then the average that I have seen.

Thanks Andy.

FYI Today's Independent commented something about JKX having lagged the sector the past few weeks, which is true, as many others have shot up while this has just hung around. So maybe it was due to make up for lost time. I don't follow this closely enough to be in any way conclusive about it. NOP, though: could we be about to see "JKX - PART II: This time it's personal" ??? Portfolio-wise it's a strong contender, IMO.

I beg to differ re VOG - news is expected in April and May on three major bits of drilling and since I've bet the farm on this one over the last few months I'm sincerely hoping it will be encouraging. In any case, my view is sufficiently long-term that I'm inclined to take a philosophical view of any dips.

Soul,

On another bb, apparently some newspaper made a comment about "vague takeover rumours" for JKX, so that may expleain some of the rise.

I certainly hope VOG does well for you, I wouldn't buy at the current price, but for anyone already holding, it looks like an exciting opportunity.

I will take a look at NOP.