http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

Info on Gaps if anyone's interested?

Seems it opened up at £4.036p


http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:gaps_and_gap_analysi

Coming down to my level....lol.,.

.

UT just in closing price 397p.

My shins are bleeding, I've been kicking myself sooooo much for not taking a nibble at this one!

n excerpt from an interesting conversation between David Kuo (TMF) and Malcolm Graham-Wood (VSA)... today (I think). Thanks to 85Gary

Podcast: http://www.fool.co.uk/money-talk/how-to-find-red-hot-oil-shares-10747.aspx

Transcript: http://www.fool.co.uk/news/investing/2012/02/13/transcript-how-to-find-red-hot-shares.aspx

David:

Okay, so my final company that I would like you to have a look at, and analyse, is Gulf Keystone. What is your feeling about this company?

Malcolm:

Well, this is another one which we've been sort of mad about for some time, and again it's looking at a frontier acreage area. We're looking at Kurdistan here, which is the northern part of Iraq. We're looking at an area where oilmen have, for a long time, wanted to go and have a chance to explore. Previously the government in Iraq has said that you couldn't explore the northern part unless you actually put money down in the southern part first. So there are no majors there until recently, and as far as I'm aware there hasn't been a major backing one of the smaller- to medium-sized companies. So what we have is a bunch of smaller companies, of which Gulf Keystone was probably one of the first, who've come in and they've drilled wells and they've found oil. DNA came in early, Gulf Keystone were in early, Heritage were in early, and so far it looks like all those oilmen, who think this is a big new frontier area for oil and gas, is right and, if that's the case, then Gulf Keystone will go higher in no time at all, because they've got six or seven appraisal wells being drilled at the moment. I mentioned that the majors were having a look at it -- well, Exxon has now come into this area, and Exxon have taken the view that they can get the northern acreage, and they won't suffer, and they probably don't mind suffering in the south, if the northern acreage is as good as it looks. They have got a number of blocks in Kurdistan, and, of course, that means that the people who think that the smaller companies, whether they're, as I say, Gulf Keystone or people like Petroceltic, and Afren, who are recently in there, might find oil and then be taken over by Exxon, which will make Kurdistan their new sort of patch, as it were. So it's very exciting, the valuation on Gulf Keystone, well it could be anything, because at the moment I don't think people are making acquisitions, or will buy Gulf Keystone and the like, just because there is a sort of technical point about whether the law in Iraq is fully formed, and whether they'll be able to get their money back, so they might be holding back for that. But the valuation of Gulf Keystone is probably minimum twice the current price, some people will say three times the current price. Given how much oil there is in there, the Gulf Keystone price could be anything.

David:

We have no idea, do we, Malcolm?

Malcolm:

We don't, but I have to say, it won't be the current price. It won't be less than £3, it'll be more than £5, and I've heard people talking £7 or higher. If these wells come in, then for a small company it's absolutely significant in a big, big way, so don't be surprised to see, if you could bid for those companies at the moment, I think someone in a bidding war would pay £7 or £8 a share for Gulf Keystone, if they got into a fight.

all provable of course!

Tend to agree with the view that the volume today was to large for just pi's,so who's buying?
Harry another excellent monday,at my age more about the company than the show,weekends for the youngsters(if only).

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/sharewatch/market-report-takeover-talk-ratchets-up-shares-and-excitement-6910453.html


In contrast, Gulf Keystone Petroleum continued its steady march forwards, despite Seymour Pierce's Dougie Youngson saying the recent bid rumours were "premature". Still, the analyst did add that the speculation was "likely to be accurate in the longer term" while initiating coverage with a buy rating, and the explorer spurted up 14.25p to 397p.

http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201202140700493492X

Bailee Gifford 5.02% interest.

A post from 5th Nov 2011
From Mr.Average ... and very illuminating. BG know a thing or two about holding until t/o:


Hello all,

I spoke with Baillie Gifford on Wednesday at their Edinburgh H.Q. Bailey Gifford currently hold a total of 28.5 MM GKP shares, they topped up recently with 15 MM around the same time that M&G topped up too. I have attempted to speak to Baillie G previously on a number of occaisions but they are brutally abrupt and refuse to discuss anything when the GKP words crop up - even partially related topics are not entertained. I got slightly luckier this week speaking to Stuart Dunbar there, the only information I gleamed however from Stuart is that Baillie Gifford are holding GKP on behalf of their Client (not clients plural) just...their Client he added.

Hmmm, sometimes a low sp is representative value to an acquiring purchaser and I wonder if this could be history repeating itself again when around 2 years ago Baillie Gifford undertook stake building in Dana Petroleum prior to KNOC's Takeover. During 2009 & 2010 Baillie Gifford bought heavilly into Dana Petroleum exceeding the holding disclosure threshold level, they continued to buy and add Dana's shares to their portfolio up untill February 2010 even when Dana's share price touched £11 per share.

Baillie G continued to add Dana whils't many other's steered away at that time and questioned both Dana's growth potential AND the improbability of a potential company Takeover.

Please note the doubter's comments below:

November 17th 2009 - FT.Com: ....."Traders have questioned the likelihood of a buyer emerging for Dana, given its North Sea assets are unlikely to appeal to a sovereign buyer and its African exploration prospects would be a poor match for a utility".

Less than 10 months later - this was announced:
September 2010: Dana Petroleum finally agree to an offer of £1.8bn (£18 per share) from KNOC, for their 223 million barrels of oil reserves. This represented a 59% Premium to it's pre bid value.

KNOC who at the time held over a 30% shareholding in Dana - they finally persuaded 64% of Dana's shareholders to opt for the certainty of cash in the hand rather than the Management's promise of growth in the future. They really didn’t have much choice after major shareholder's Schroders and BlackRock sold their holdings to KNOC.

The T/O price was eventually agreed over a 4 month period - with Baillie Gifford actively and vocally aiding in the final bid-battle target value of Dana.

As far as GKP and II's are concerned we have M&G, Baillie Gifford, and Capita who have all increased their GKP share holdings of late.

We have witnessed the M&G and the Kuok holdings update, and now that Baillie Gifford have breached the 3% holdings threshold level coupled with the amended bye-laws it would be good to see GKP issue a few new and up-to-speed disclosure holdings RNS's.
In all the excitement of Sh4 maybe GKP have forgotten to inform us.

Maybe Baillie G or to be more specific (their 28.5 MM Client) have found a loophole and have GKP split within 2 totally seperate divisions / holdings thus coming in under the radar and negating the need for notification. .....Either way from the many resulting phonecalls - they are certainly a protective and tight lipped lot !

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AGKP.L&it=le&action=detail&id=8916064

Thus is part of an earlier post, confirming it's credabillty' .

niceonecyril - 06 Nov 2011 10:11 - 1859 of 1939

Of interest from the 3i's board.

MrA has posted on iii now too



Hello all,

I spoke with Baillie Gifford on Wednesday at their Edinburgh H.Q. Bailey Gifford currently hold a total of 28.5 MM GKP shares, they topped up recently with 15 MM around the same time that M&G topped up too. I have attempted to speak to Baillie G previously on a number of occaisions but they are brutally abrupt and refuse to discuss anything when the GKP words crop up - even partially related topics are not entertained. I got slightly luckier this week speaking to Stuart Dunbar there, the only information I gleamed however from Stuart is that Baillie Gifford are holding GKP on behalf of their Client (not clients plural) just...their Client he added.

Damn....what's going on.....

I can never understand these type of rns's have Baillie bought more or sold these shares??

bloody good I'm back in at profit of shares.,.

.

on the basis that it looks as though this may be running out of puff at least for the moment, i have banked some good profits ...... still heavily o'weight, but now plenty in the war-chest should i decide to top up again

done the opposite and bought back my sell at 404.,.

ouch! you're now down 25p already

Ballerboy they were (are?) buying if you look it states 5% crissed with a final figure of 5.02%,it would need to be in the 4%.range or less if they had sold.