http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Are the shares you keep for years the type that bomb and leave you locked into a large paper loss RF?

I got a couple of them chav, who has not ?

Afren.....been in for a couple of years now....and a few bombed out ones which unless they recover soon will be disposed of.

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/news/21191/broker-roundup-oil-gas-rockhopper-desire-petroleum-sterling-energy-europa-oil-gas-21191.html


Two of the more topical exploration destinations dominated analyst coverage on Monday, with a successful flow test in the Falklands and a disappointing drilling result in the Kurdistan region of Northern Iraq.

On Friday, Rockhopper Exploration (LON:RKH) reported the successful test of the Sea Lion 1 well in the North Falkland Basin. Sea Lion returned sustained rates in excess of 2,000 barrels per day (bpd) with a maximum rate of 2,304bpd.

The flow-test was constrained by limited equipment, and the company anticipates that additional equipment in any future test would result in a significantly higher flow rate - when also combined with a more optimal well location.

Consequently many analysts were upbeat in their coverage, perhaps the most notable was major US institution Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Alejandro Demichelis, Research analyst at Merrill Lynch, upped his price target by 50p per share to 700p to reflect commercial de-risking of the oilfield following the successful test.

In its base-case valuation Merrill Lynch estimates that Sea Lion has 242 million barrels of oil equivalent (mmboe) and its P10 estimate sees 670mmboe.
We now see RKH focusing on accelerating the appraisal of the field, Demichelis said.

According to Demichelis, Rockhopper could add a number of drillable prospects medium term.

Its SeaLion find in the North Falkland basin has transformed RKH but we still see plenty of upside.

The resource upside potential of the basin and its leverage to the geological play make RKH a strong early-stage E&P, similar to the experience of Cairn and Tullow Oil and their initial India and Ghana/Uganda discoveries.

Evolution Securities analyst David Farrell also upgraded his outlook for the Falklands explorer to Add from Neutral, raising his price target to 450p from 359p.

Everything points to Sea Lion being a commercial development, Farrell said.
The analyst expects Rockhopper to push ahead with an appraisal well as soon as possible, and whilst Farrell acknowledged that Sea Lion should be commercial as a standalone development he expects nearby prospects to be incorporated into a wider development plan.

Richard Rose, Oriel Securities analyst, emphasised that the successful test represents a significant milestone in de-risking the discoverys commerciality.

Oriel Securities reiterated its buy recommendation for Rockhopper.

Ignoring cash balances, the shares are trading at just over 50% of our un-risked NAV for Sea Lion under the P50 case which we believe is far too conservative, Rose said.

Fox-Davies oil and gas analyst Lionel Therond said he was encouraged by the result and upped his target price from 350p to 500p. Therond also raised the Sea Lion oilfields probability of success from 50% to 67%.

According to Alan Sinclair, oil & gas analyst at Seymour Pierce, believes that Rockhoppers good fortune will lso benefit fellow Falkland explorer Desire Petroleum (LON:DES).

Oil fields seldom exist in isolation, Sinclair commented.

The Sea Lion discovery validated the geological model of the basin and de-risked Desire's adjacent prospects. In fact, it actually added another prospect - Elaine - to the Desire portfolio.

The successful test of Sea Lion indicates a potentially commercial project which would help the viability of other discoveries in the area..............

If the target is 450p....we are past that and 500p target....very close to that today,.. 487p at one time...might go further short term...or not.....problem is lack of big news for perhaps several months now.....with action switching to the risky DES well.....(RKH...hold a smallish percentage).....

everyone switching to DES???? ...... i don't think so!!!

Then DES is a short.....(what a deramper I am today)....dear oh ! dear....

Merrill Lynch - 700p target price - the only broker who appears to properly, at this stage, value the company and its prospects.

Thank goodness its also the biggest one and the one that carries real weight.

:)

you only say that because it coincides with your own wishes

cynic even the brokers are ramping this one, RKH would have a market cap of 1.3b if the sp goes to 7 that is 50% greater than AFR which is already producing 20000bopd does that make sense look at the geography and estimate the cost of recovering the oil, it seems to us that exuberance has taken over and we all know what usually follows.

what reserves has afren got and what other potential finds are looming?

gildph try the Afren thread this is the RKH thread

not sure hali ..... i don't think the cost of recovering the oil in FI is that important, any more than it is with TLW's huge find in Uganda ..... the impetus behind RKH will not only be the anticipated final analysis of what Sealion holds, but also what is perceived as the potential in the fields around it that have yet to be drilled ..... there is also the not unlikely possibility of one the majors (BLT is the obvious call) deciding that this is too tasty a morsel to ignore.

why AFR's value remains so low is a continuing mystery to me, but i am very glad i hold a lump of those too

Halifax.

Uen has over 2000 bopd and should be increasing and is valued at around 25 mil.

Guess that looks better value than Rkh and Afr although the debt and locations
probably factor in the low price eh ?

UEN has no relationship with RKH other than sector ..... UEN is a twiddly joke company, even if it is producing a petrol station's-worth of oil a day

       CLOSING MARKET REPORT from FT.com

Small Caps

Rockhopper Exploration climbed a further 12.4 per cent to 472p as investors continued to digest Fridays flow test data from its Sea Lion prospect in the waters off the Falklands. Canaccord Genuity said the find was worth 441p a share.

Uen maybe a joke cynic but in terms of what they produce to their market cap
they are not expensive, certainly risky but a lot of companies in the sector produce
far less and are valued way more.

you keep to the crap shares my son, if that's what keeps you happy .... staying away from them will keep me and my bank balance much happier still

Cynic.

You can carry on making the silly remarks, my account is at a record high and
growing every day trading small caps, i dont need a lecture from you or anybody
else as i'm pretty good at this game and my knowledge of L2 and online limits
serves me very well, something which you know little about and if we are firing
shots at each other your Blnx trades do not strike me as making you that good
at this game :-))

ravy

do us all a favour and go back from whence you came. This used to be worth following before you started venting your spleen.