looks like its hit oil, don't know whats gonna happen, any idea's ???

... and the current operations started last Sunday are expected to take 10-15 days. So By the next drilling update on Wednesday TD could've been reached and testing started shortly after.

Here's a news item from the local paper on the Oil of Wight:

Isle of Wight County Press

Niels Hi,

Are you a photographer for the press ?

Not such good sounds coming from NOP though ....

Sandhills 2Z, will cost an extra 250,000 to 300,000.
The likelihood now was there was less oil there unless the reservoir unit extended further to the west.
"It was disappointing to find this but it has some up-sides to it," said Mr Musgrove, who added there was likely to be a higher proportion of oil to water than previously thought.
If the reservoir is small it means the cost of recovery per barrel will be higher but this is likely to be offset by the recent sharp rise in oil prices.



.... not exactly the black-gold-rush everyone was hoping for, so I hope they get moving in the Netherlands soon, before the S.P plummets to 50p or lower ....

Cheers,
PM

NEW YORK (AFX) - Crude and oil product prices struck new record highs in
electronic trade Monday, as a major hurricane threatened production in the Gulf
of Mexico.
Front-dated crude futures were recently up $3.13, or 4.7%, at $69.26 a
barrel, having touched $70.80 earlier in the session, the first time the
contract has traded above the $70 a barrel level.
Meanwhile, natural gas futures rose a staggering 17% to $11.48 per British
thermal unit, and earlier climbed above $12.
Unleaded gasoline futures rose 20 cents, or 10.4%, to $2.128 a gallon and
heating oil jumped 14 cents, or 7.6%, to $1.98 a gallon.
Traders have been eyeing Hurricane Katrina's progress for the last week and
crude for October delivery struck a peak of $67.95 a barrel on the New York
Mercantile Exchange Friday to mark the last intraday record for a benchmark
contract.
But prices dropped $1.36, or 2%, late in the session to close at a three-day
low of $66.13 as fears abated.
Over the weekend, the storm - which late last week had been classed as
category 1 - gathered ground and hit land early Monday as a category 4 or 5
storm.
Gulf of Mexico and onshore oil and natural gas facilities had closed ahead
of the storm, a threat to facilities at Port Fourchon, La., near New Orleans,
which handles around one-sixth of U.S. oil supply, and rigs in the Gulf of
Mexico.
Agbeli Ameko, managing partner at First Enercast, said crude prices could
push toward $75 a barrel today, while natural gas may move toward $12 per
million British thermal units.
The hurricane will have a significant short- and long-term impact on energy
markets, impacting production off shore and on shore, and shutting in refining
and processing facilities. The Minerals Management Service will report shut-in
statistics at 2.00 p.m. Eastern Time.
As the shut-ins persist, increasing winter supply concerns, the potential
for $80 a barrel crude and $15 per million British thermal units natural gas are
realistic, said Ameko.
"Katrina is approaching as a category five hurricane at a time in which the
supply and demand is in a delicate balance" he said.
The long-term impact on supply will make the market vulnerable to winter
price spikes if temperatures are colder than average, he said.
The sharp spike in oil prices sent stock futures sharply lower. Dow futures
were last down 35 at 10,372, S&P 500 futures were down 3.90 at 1,202 and Nasdaq
100 futures were down 8 at 1,555.50.
Energy shares, in contrast, rallied strongly. Exxon Mobil was last up 1.6%
at $59.35 in premarket trade on Instinet. Valero gained 3.5% at $92.50,
TotalFina added 0.8% to $126.84 and BP was up 3.1% at $68.15.
In the oil services sector, Schlumberger was up $1.7% at $83.50.

Paul, no I don't work for the press.

Niels Hi,

Well, good pics anyway :)

Cheers,
PM

Thanks Paul. The fact that the oil/water separation layer was found deeper than anticipated could be good news; it could mean that there might be more recoverable oil than calculated. 2Z should be done by today. Tomorrows drilling update may prove interesting. Note that Evolution still has a target of 141p for this baby.

Weekly Drill report released, target depth reached and now coring, since not plugged then assume oil found?

The RNS today was only disappointing in as much that we'll have to wait a few more days until we know the length of column of the oil and the % saturation etc together with the completion of the well so that a test programme can begin while the rig moves to Boulder. Note that I believe the well is more likely to be completed due to the length of time coring has been going on. If the well was to be abandoned then I think that would've happended before now rather than going through with coring.

The Depth last Wednesday was some 4300ft and they were going a circa 300ft per day so the current TD of some 4750ft would've been reached sometime last Thursday evening. So, this means Coring must've got underway Friday. So the coring operations had been going on about 5 days until this Morning. Coring is slow but I recall someone saying it would take about 5 days. So it looks like logging etc could start before the end of the week. I think Logging could only take a day or so, so there's an outside chance of an RNS before the end of Friday. Again, Monday is the most likely day.

The RNS today is actually mildy positive in my view, the fact that they have been coring for my estimated 5 days means that unlike Sandhills-2 where the curvature was too great NOP have been able to core at Sandhills-2Z.

Hi All,

NOP looks like news is coming, started moving up again earlier ....

Pretty much ALL buys since 11am ....

Cheers,
PM

I considered selling my Stetson but have decided to keep it. Here's why: The Holland assets are there, they just need to be taken out of the ground, and, they alone, justify a price of 1. Then there's Bouldnor which now looks much better than the previous calculated chance of 20% because the oil has seeped so far west (and it must come from somewhere). Finally there's Italy etc..

Also note that Northern DID find oil, unfortunately bacteria had lunched on it, making it worthless.

The market has clearly panicked, but observe the current price drop happened on a miniscule volume relative to the market cap.

Time to buy a gallon hat.

Niels Hi,

I think there will be another drop on monday, as the blue sky is further away now, and money to be made elsewhere by those still with an option to sell, which they may not have been able to do today, due to being at work, and their first chance to sell will therefore be monday morning.

The chart suggests there are still people in here, with a cost price of between 45p and 55p, and that is where I think the price is heading next week.

Cheers,
PM

If one intends to top up then that's OK. The blue sky is there, it's just that people can't see it for irrelevant clouds.

Niels Hi,

Topping up at 45p to 55p suits me fine :)

Cheers,
PM

Press clip from the "Oil" of Wight: Buggers

If there's oil at Bouldnor, share price may go to 17. I don't really believe this, but read the Evolution update here: http://www.research.evosecurities.com/

Select Company and then find Northern Petroleum.

Did you top-up Paul?

Thanks Niels ,have just read Evolution report and read the part about 17 a share,hang on a minute i`ve just seen a flying pig.
Back to reality ! the report does seem very optimistic about the future SP even if finds are at the lower levels.
DB66

Niels Hi,

Missed the 54p low as a chance to top up, as I was hoping for a lower price, but it could still drop back down there before news arrives.

You have to register with EVO to get the note, I am already registered, so if you have trouble registering(they don't accept free email addresses like hotmail !), send me an e-mail to ME and I will send you the note.

Cheers,
PM

Not so sure about bouldnor either now ....

"But as the rig moves over to drill another trial borehole in Forestry Commission land at Bouldnor Copse 1, there was cautious optimism for that site, even though it has always been a higher-risk prospect than the Sandhills 2 well at Porchfield."

Part of the EVO note ....

Impact on valuation independent experts ECL recent report attributed 6.64m
barrels of 2P reserves to NOP for the Sandhills Great Oolite structure, on the
basis that this was an appraisal of an existing discovery. Removal of these
reserves cuts ECLs Southern England 2P number from 10.24m to 3.6m barrels.

Our value of NOPs core value based on 2P reserves from Southern England and
the Netherlands and cash on the balance sheet drops from 144p to 90p/share.

Our core value does not include almost 10m barrels of reserves in the Papekop
field in the Netherlands, which is subject to licence approval.

Of course this core value does not include any risked EMV for the Bouldnor
Copse well, which is to be drilled once the rig has moved from Sandhills.
Bouldnor Copse has large potential but is inherently more risky as the structure
has not been drilled before. NOP indicate up to 300m barrels potential with a
70% interest which could be worth a staggering 17/share unrisked. Partner Oil
Quest suggests a more modest 55m barrels of P10 reserves for the Sherwood
Prospect at Bouldnor Copse, but even this level of reserve could be worth over
3/share unrisked net to NOP.


I guess the risk is very very high, unless they find oil worth pumping, they will stay at 60p or less, until Netherlands oil is sorted, then they could move to over 1.

Niels, any idea when drilling is going to start at Bouldnor ?

Cheers,
PM