http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

Merrill Lynch - 700p target price - the only broker who appears to properly, at this stage, value the company and its prospects.

Thank goodness its also the biggest one and the one that carries real weight.

:)

you only say that because it coincides with your own wishes

cynic even the brokers are ramping this one, RKH would have a market cap of 1.3b if the sp goes to 7 that is 50% greater than AFR which is already producing 20000bopd does that make sense look at the geography and estimate the cost of recovering the oil, it seems to us that exuberance has taken over and we all know what usually follows.

what reserves has afren got and what other potential finds are looming?

gildph try the Afren thread this is the RKH thread

not sure hali ..... i don't think the cost of recovering the oil in FI is that important, any more than it is with TLW's huge find in Uganda ..... the impetus behind RKH will not only be the anticipated final analysis of what Sealion holds, but also what is perceived as the potential in the fields around it that have yet to be drilled ..... there is also the not unlikely possibility of one the majors (BLT is the obvious call) deciding that this is too tasty a morsel to ignore.

why AFR's value remains so low is a continuing mystery to me, but i am very glad i hold a lump of those too

Halifax.

Uen has over 2000 bopd and should be increasing and is valued at around 25 mil.

Guess that looks better value than Rkh and Afr although the debt and locations
probably factor in the low price eh ?

UEN has no relationship with RKH other than sector ..... UEN is a twiddly joke company, even if it is producing a petrol station's-worth of oil a day

       CLOSING MARKET REPORT from FT.com

Small Caps

Rockhopper Exploration climbed a further 12.4 per cent to 472p as investors continued to digest Fridays flow test data from its Sea Lion prospect in the waters off the Falklands. Canaccord Genuity said the find was worth 441p a share.

Uen maybe a joke cynic but in terms of what they produce to their market cap
they are not expensive, certainly risky but a lot of companies in the sector produce
far less and are valued way more.

you keep to the crap shares my son, if that's what keeps you happy .... staying away from them will keep me and my bank balance much happier still

Cynic.

You can carry on making the silly remarks, my account is at a record high and
growing every day trading small caps, i dont need a lecture from you or anybody
else as i'm pretty good at this game and my knowledge of L2 and online limits
serves me very well, something which you know little about and if we are firing
shots at each other your Blnx trades do not strike me as making you that good
at this game :-))

ravy

do us all a favour and go back from whence you came. This used to be worth following before you started venting your spleen.

Oh the joy of discovering the 'squelch' button! Good bye Davy!

That's made a perfect ending to an excellent day!

avsec.

I'm happy, business is great, i was just doing comparisons, i dont even have a position in Vog but thought it was worth mentioning the valuation considering
what they produce, sometimes i wonder why the likes of Cynic and Haystack
bother to post here, both dont seem to have a clue about trading but will
happily infest a lot of threads under the pretence of a knowall(s).

Be gone with you Ainsoph your not wanted here.

You see, thats exactly the kind of comment that shows just how little PI's know about how to value an oil stock.

First and most important in the valuation is the commercial recoverable barrels figure, the reserves.

Secondly its how much profit you can turn per barrel, so a good fiscal regime where the government takes little tax and royalties is good (unlike say Kurdistan where anyone will struggle to make a good profit per barrel once the Kurds and Iraqis take their cuts). Also into this comes the cost to produce.

Thirdly for actual producers you can add in the cashflow and therefore flow rates are important. You can also reduce down for risk etc.....debt levels......

Then is the add ons, which is the other potentials in your license areas to drill.

So first and foremost its how much proven recoverable oil you have along with government tax and royalty deductions.


EG - no point having 20,000 bopd flow if all you have in 50 million barrels, that will soon be all used up.

No point having 8 million barrels of Oil In Place if you can recover only 10% of it and then you have to pay 95% of any sales price of the oil in local and national tax and royalties.

The price of a company with 242 million barrels of commercial recoverable oil and no production should ultimately be far higher than one with 100 million barrels recoverable on their books.

Get your metrics lined up and all falls into place, which is why one of the real big boys, Merrill Lynch/Bank of America, have a 700p price target.

Get your metrics the wrong way around and its very easy to portray RKH as overvalued - which is what some other brokers with agenda's and their own stocks to pump do.





halifax - 20 Sep 2010 17:07 - 2722 of 2735

cynic even the brokers are ramping this one, RKH would have a market cap of 1.3b if the sp goes to 7 that is 50% greater than AFR which is already producing 20000bopd does that make sense look at the geography and estimate the cost of recovering the oil, it seems to us that exuberance has taken over and we all know what usually follows.

View from Westhouse:-

20/9/10

Westhouse Securities re-iterated its "BUY" recommendation for the oil explorer ROCKHOPPER EXPLORATION (RKH) with an increased target price from 617p to 649p.

The broker is very much encouraged by the "good news", which is says "de-risks" the Sea Lion discovery.

rdg - did i or did i not make a profit on BLNX trading? .... yes i did, to save your brain any work .... though the current position is negative, overall i am still in profit on this stock ..... if you think you have the magic touch with squiddly-diddly shares, then you keep at it old son - i'm sure we are all delighted for you

Many people are privately saying they expect Sea Lion to be 800 million recoverable barrels, not the 242 million presently talked about.

Now The Sun joins in, saying Sea Lion potentially could be 700 million recoverable barrels.

http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/money/city/3145751/3billion-Falkland-Islands-oil-boost.html

THE Falkland Islands are poised for a 3BILLION bonanza after tests showed an oil field off their shores is HUGE.

UK company Rockhopper Exploration said its drillings indicated 240 MILLION barrels were waiting to be tapped.

And some experts believe there are 700 MILLION.

The tax take from the Sea Lion field 140 miles north of the islands in the South Atlantic will be at least 2.5billion over 20 years at current prices.

It is the first commercially v...........................