http://www.gulfkeystone.com/ The firms exploration programme in Algeria is going well and "the shares look good value", say the Investors Chronicle. Your comments please. goal.

A post from 5th Nov 2011
From Mr.Average ... and very illuminating. BG know a thing or two about holding until t/o:


Hello all,

I spoke with Baillie Gifford on Wednesday at their Edinburgh H.Q. Bailey Gifford currently hold a total of 28.5 MM GKP shares, they topped up recently with 15 MM around the same time that M&G topped up too. I have attempted to speak to Baillie G previously on a number of occaisions but they are brutally abrupt and refuse to discuss anything when the GKP words crop up - even partially related topics are not entertained. I got slightly luckier this week speaking to Stuart Dunbar there, the only information I gleamed however from Stuart is that Baillie Gifford are holding GKP on behalf of their Client (not clients plural) just...their Client he added.

Hmmm, sometimes a low sp is representative value to an acquiring purchaser and I wonder if this could be history repeating itself again when around 2 years ago Baillie Gifford undertook stake building in Dana Petroleum prior to KNOC's Takeover. During 2009 & 2010 Baillie Gifford bought heavilly into Dana Petroleum exceeding the holding disclosure threshold level, they continued to buy and add Dana's shares to their portfolio up untill February 2010 even when Dana's share price touched £11 per share.

Baillie G continued to add Dana whils't many other's steered away at that time and questioned both Dana's growth potential AND the improbability of a potential company Takeover.

Please note the doubter's comments below:

November 17th 2009 - FT.Com: ....."Traders have questioned the likelihood of a buyer emerging for Dana, given its North Sea assets are unlikely to appeal to a sovereign buyer and its African exploration prospects would be a poor match for a utility".

Less than 10 months later - this was announced:
September 2010: Dana Petroleum finally agree to an offer of £1.8bn (£18 per share) from KNOC, for their 223 million barrels of oil reserves. This represented a 59% Premium to it's pre bid value.

KNOC who at the time held over a 30% shareholding in Dana - they finally persuaded 64% of Dana's shareholders to opt for the certainty of cash in the hand rather than the Management's promise of growth in the future. They really didn’t have much choice after major shareholder's Schroders and BlackRock sold their holdings to KNOC.

The T/O price was eventually agreed over a 4 month period - with Baillie Gifford actively and vocally aiding in the final bid-battle target value of Dana.

As far as GKP and II's are concerned we have M&G, Baillie Gifford, and Capita who have all increased their GKP share holdings of late.

We have witnessed the M&G and the Kuok holdings update, and now that Baillie Gifford have breached the 3% holdings threshold level coupled with the amended bye-laws it would be good to see GKP issue a few new and up-to-speed disclosure holdings RNS's.
In all the excitement of Sh4 maybe GKP have forgotten to inform us.

Maybe Baillie G or to be more specific (their 28.5 MM Client) have found a loophole and have GKP split within 2 totally seperate divisions / holdings thus coming in under the radar and negating the need for notification. .....Either way from the many resulting phonecalls - they are certainly a protective and tight lipped lot !

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?display=discussion&code=cotn%3AGKP.L&it=le&action=detail&id=8916064

Thus is part of an earlier post, confirming it's credabillty' .

niceonecyril - 06 Nov 2011 10:11 - 1859 of 1939

Of interest from the 3i's board.

MrA has posted on iii now too



Hello all,

I spoke with Baillie Gifford on Wednesday at their Edinburgh H.Q. Bailey Gifford currently hold a total of 28.5 MM GKP shares, they topped up recently with 15 MM around the same time that M&G topped up too. I have attempted to speak to Baillie G previously on a number of occaisions but they are brutally abrupt and refuse to discuss anything when the GKP words crop up - even partially related topics are not entertained. I got slightly luckier this week speaking to Stuart Dunbar there, the only information I gleamed however from Stuart is that Baillie Gifford are holding GKP on behalf of their Client (not clients plural) just...their Client he added.

Damn....what's going on.....

I can never understand these type of rns's have Baillie bought more or sold these shares??

bloody good I'm back in at profit of shares.,.

.

on the basis that it looks as though this may be running out of puff at least for the moment, i have banked some good profits ...... still heavily o'weight, but now plenty in the war-chest should i decide to top up again

done the opposite and bought back my sell at 404.,.

ouch! you're now down 25p already

Ballerboy they were (are?) buying if you look it states 5% crissed with a final figure of 5.02%,it would need to be in the 4%.range or less if they had sold.

Thanks cyril, did look again and realised. NO NO cyners, sold some yesterday at 404, now got back at 379......lubbly jubbly.,.

Question is when are these well results due....if they are what I think they might be : that is fantastic news.....might add 50p or more to the present value...or will it.....just staying put at the moment....

Just seen a million three hundred thousand buy go through...wow.....two of them....

OK "guilty"

if only lol

RF i saw 2 trades but when i double checked (to see if it was a roll over),i can only track down 1 ytafr??

Sometimes I reckon there are echoes on these trades...I reckon it was only one but still the same that's four million quid.....blimey....

Today, raising his price target to 524p but at the same time suggesting investors might cash in some of their gains, Seymour analyst Dr Doug Youngson said:


Gulf Keystone continues its strong run in 2012 and has surpassed our original share price target of 374p. We have reviewed our valuation for the company's 2C [contingent] resources and have now moved from the low case scenario to the best case scenario. This moves our valuation for these resources from 317p to 467p, all other assumptions remain the same.

The next major share price driver will be the result from the Ber Bahr-1 well which we expect to come in early March. Gulf Keystone has been one of the strongest performing stocks on Aim this year. Investors may want to consider taking profits ahead of the next well result to mitigate against the risk of a poor outcome.

i have now sold even more but just as i was damned if i could how high sp would go in the immediate future, i am now in a quandary for the reverse

More buys than sells...tricky....I'm still in....and there's still the Total rumour...

i am too but at about 40% of what i had this morning, though in value terms i'm still o'weight here