.

MrP plugged and abandoned

He does put some good posts on here now and again Cynic.....it's a gamble, but I reckon that with four or five wells being drilled ; a commercial discovery will be announced...the problem is that if Borders hit the jackpot at the first attempt : it will be very difficult to jump in at the right price...and as I cannot watch sp movements all the time : I'm in already.....more in FOGL than BOR that is.....must be close to target depth now...

RF, you know exactly what will happen.

If BOR strike - it will be called a fluke and all those deramping it now will suddenly claim to be long holders having brought in at very low prices just after the news.

If BOR fail - it will be called a masterstroke of genius in predicting a failure and they will claim to be short from very high prices just before the news.


Its soooooooo predictable.

not i ..... i always tell the truth

Just looked on iii to catch up, i c pro has started the gas rumour on iii then brought it to this thread.

"RF, you know exactly what will happen."

Back from the ice cold Spey to hear the first cuckoo of the Spring

"Its soooooooo predictable."

much more importantly, did you catch anything other than a waderful of chilly river water?

All I can say is its going to be mighty interesting when we get the full well results and details of what happened.

I think the "re-spud" rumours were correct and the drilling rig problems caused them to re-spud after the rig was repaired.

This is based on the Darwin East coordinates on the EIS and the fact the rig is some 200 metres west of those EIS coordinates for the well.

If the well was spud again on the 16th March (which ties in with the comment of news in 4 to 5 weeks) its worth nothing that :

Drill time to TD was estimated at 28 days and rig on site was 38 days.

EG they would get to TD on the 28th day of drilling, then spend some time going wireline and collecting fluid samples etc.. and then finally P&A the well.

So on an ideal timescale news would come after 5 weeks.

If things went really well and no problems then news after the 4th week.

If there were some delays news would be after the 5 weeks.


So 16th March + 28 days = Friday 13th April for TD
+5 days for wireline and interpretation = Wed 18th April
P&A complete and rig move to Stebbing = Mon 23rd April (the 38th day).

Now, drilling never ever goes to plan and is normally delayed, so I suggest its possible for news this coming week, but likely it will be the week commencing Monday 23rd April - if there has been a few days delays picked up over the drilling time.

Its getting mighty close, thats for sure, and the rumours of gas would be just about right for entering the target zone with a few days of delays picked up along the way.

Watch for volume this coming week, if it goes over 5 million shares on any day - that would look like a leak of news..............

Lost a large fish yesterday! Left me attached to a large rock after a short and furious fight. Watched a chum land a sea-liced fish of 22lbs.

Now waiting for RKH to go when the farm-in news goes live.

5m is only double the norm, so while quite heavy, is not exactly massive, though if consistently high, then arguably but far from necessarily something of note could be afoot

:-(( for you then

Some talk of VSP being done.

You would conduct VSP if :

You have encountered gas shows and what to check that there are no overpressure zones before drilling into them, so you can correctly set the mud etc.. to ensure you do not lose control of the well.

You have encountered a problem (junk in the well, stringer, string jam etc..) and want to sidetrack around it.

You want to check the reservoir structure and fracturing etc...


There is no massive sell off or massive buying, so I would guess they are checking for any overpressure zones before drilling through them on their way down to the flat spot - eg some time to go, not even into the target zone yet, just above it perhaps and are having gas shows - so checking with VSP before drilling into possible gas bearing sands to ensure no overpressure zones.

But hey, I do not know.

Thanks Prosels.....even if just rumours...nice to read anyway....

All I do know is when the rig problems rumours come out, we did over 5 million volume that day.

So far volume is again normal (normal being 2.5 million or less in a day).

So whatever is happening at the moment is neutral - not causing any panic selling and not causing any rushed buying.

I quote.......


..............A major use of the VSP is to invert it into a syntetic acoustic impedance log, and use this to predict overpressure below the current depth of the well. The drilling program and mud properties can be adjusted to reflect overpressure zones detected on the inverted impedance log..................

Nice :)

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2012/04/201241517107911574.html

.

Volume is slightly over average now, on for about 3 million shares if it stays the same for the rest of the way.

strange - L2 shows cumulative volume for today at only 1.75m

Volume is slowing down, might struggle to do 2.5 million now.

You have to admit that this is a bit of a gamble here !....to me FOGL is a little less riskier than BOR...the trouble is that if BOR do discover hydrocarbons in quantity : FOGL will rise just as much in my opinion...perhaps not quite as much but a very big sp increase is on the cards....or they discover nothing.....I think that somewhere within these south falkland licences lies an oil reservoir.....exciting times....