.

.

Well, circa 35m of net pay is the P50, which according to the volumetrics report is 242MMBO recoverable.

One must not forget that the CPR is old and outdated and is a CPR, the Volumetrics report is current, however, it is not a CPR, its purely a Volumetrics report on present information. The CP can be less strict and conservative with a Volumetrics report than with a CPR.

So, any news of circa 35m of net pay and its all systems go on the P50.

Anything over 35m is party time.

Anything under might mean a lowering of the P50 figure, say 242MMBO to 170MMBO on a volumetrics basis (in line with the CPR) ;)


Upside - the matter of the lower fans, under Sea Lion Main/Lower. There has been a lot of talk of "stacked fans", up to 7 of them. Now, should a fan under Sea Lion lower be full of oil, fizzy oil or whatever and be viable (in terms of porosity and permeability), this is going to really excite things as it brings a huge amount of upside into play. something that is not in any CPR or Volumetrics report.

So a couple of key things with any RNS are firstly, the net pay in the top, circa 35m is fine and anything more is a real bonus, and secondly anything in any new fans under Sea Lion lower fan, this would be classed as a "new discovery".

Now would that not be lovely, the RNS heading of "Successful appraisal and New Oil Discovery".

Come on RKH !

And before anyone says anything, the new 2010 "Volumetric Report on Sea Lion" is still valid. It was never invalidated. It clearly says 242MMBO recoverable.

All that was said, and it was grossly misrepresented, was that IF they had to do a new CPR under the strict rules of a CPR then owing to lack of 3D and lack of drill data they could not say 242MMBO in a CPR.

However, without those restrictions of a CPR the Volumetrics Report is still totally valid and never withdrawn not needed updating, its live, correct and points to P50 of 242MMBO recoverable. I do not know why a lot of people ignore that fact.

FT coverage.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0aff3928-4fef-11e0-9ad1-00144feab49a.html#axzz1GnpwFXVl

Rockhopper Exploration added 7.1 per cent to 229p on talk the Falklands explorer was about to release drilling results from its 14/1-4 appraisal well. Traders said the well was make or break for the Falklands sub-sector. A positive result would see Rockhopper confirm its probable reserve estimate of 170m barrels with the potential for an upgrade, they said.

Post from Stu over at III.


.........Lots of folk talking about net pay at the moment, that's fine, but it's not what we're here for..

1). http://i54.tinypic.com/by0eh.png

2). http://i54.tinypic.com/15popvt.png

Obviously additional Net Pay is good, but people should be looking for a deep OWC more than ANYTHING else.

This isn't a numbers RNS, this RNS is all about proving the 40% sell off was wrong. There's an 80% gain to be had here just by reasserting that Sea Lion is good for 170MM bbl.


Big net pay is not required.

OWC is the main event here.



Blow the doubters out of the water, or the water out of the doubters......


.

.

Tuesday close stock on loan figure got updated. It was not 200K of shorts closed on Tuesday 15th, but 350K shorts closed.

Tuesday 15th close outstanding stock on loan was 900K.

I will let you know how many shorts closed yesterday with new figures for yesterdays close, around lunch time.

.

A lot of small "O" trade sells today, looks as it a lot of small PI's people were desperate to close their positions on any bounce.

If the news is good, more fool them.

Its a bit of a PI phenomenon of missing out, they hold through the pain, rush to sell when it eases a little and miss all the big rise.........

I would have thought that now there would not be a single short, too risky.....in case of huge upside....

Shares Mag has suggested in one article everyone to short RKH today.......... LOL

Based on "price movement trend" ?????

They will get blown away when good news comes out - got to be one of the worst calls in history ?


Never short when big news is just around the corner, the write will either claim to be wonderful if any bad news breaks, or will HIDE behind a stop loss if the price rises.

And they said SELL AT 216p - LOL - its over 230p now.

.

M, we have all done it in the past, the thing is to learn not to do it in future..... and present of course.

More borgo fun :


The Owner has told my Barman to order extra supplies. It is anticipated that the party will have more guests than expected.

The party date is unclear, but the Owner has decided to stay in town as he believes it will be very soon.

Orders for beer have been cut back in favour for more sixties vintage wine. No Evian orders.

Here comes the sun ............ By borgo22

Hope that you are right Prosels......any other snipbits of information from the grapevine ?

.

.

Shorts situation was that 50K of shorts closed yesterday.

Yesterday opening with 900K of stock on loan.

Yesterday closed with 850K of stock on loan.


This week, 200K closed on Monday, 350K closed Tuesday and 50K closed Wednesday.


As for me, I still expect news next Mon or Tue or Wed....... no rush :)

If you read the EIS document they say they will :

Drill up to 8 appraisal wells.

Flow test up to 4 of the those 8 wells.

Plug and abandon all 8 wells.


Its very clear up to 50% of the wells will be flow tested, but 100% of them will be P&A. This programme is to prove the size of the massive Sea Lion :)

EIS link here : http://www.mediafire.com/?l067cfjalxx7gii

.

a/ Poor news would be very little net pay and a high up OWC.

b/ Good news would be circa 35 metres of net pay and a low down Oil Water Contact (OWC) point.

c/ Superb news would be 35 metres or more of net pay and a low down OWC.

d/ Fantastic news would be 35 metres or more of net pay and no OWC found.

e/ Dream land would be 35 metres or more of net pay, no OWC and also a new lower down fan containing oil.

Therefore -


1/ I am expecting Sea Lion Main fan to be good with similar net pay to 14-10/2

2/ I am expecting no oil water contact point to be found. (Yippee)

3/ I am expecting Sea Lion lower to be thin at this point, due to extreme edge location, so a little net pay if any but not a lot, not the same as 14-10/2)

4/I am expecting something "new" to be found under Sea Lion lower.


So my expectation is something in Dream Land, but then I have rose tinted specs on :) and I am not going to be disappointed even with just good news :) !!


The present share price reflects "Bad News" and so, if anything good comes in then it will rerate upwards rather sharpish.