p/w of 10 with sales rising 20% YOY and turns around 80% of profit straight to cash worth 10 in my opinion thats why I bought it @ 550p the steal of the century ....

now out of its 90 day average heading toward 700p withing the month as understand the overhang of float shares out of the way

Likewise, there was no news associated with the fall in the sp.
May be it's just regaining the level which reflects a true value of the company?

Long weekend - during which ANYTHING can happen due to ongoing market volitility. Have sold off and will take another look next week.

What does that mean, "long weekend, during which anything can happen"? Nothing is going to happen. The UK market will be shut. It will react to the US market like it does every day. Nothing special is going to happen because the market makers and movers & shakers aren't at work.

Something will happen - you can bet on that !!!
You'll come back Tuesday with egg all over your face !!

Bank of China shares fall on sub-prime concern
Read full article here


'Rocket scientist' behind Barclays' complicated debt deals quits and disappears as his boss tries to shrug off City fears of a damaging credit crunch...
Read full article here

``The BOE is either going to stay on hold or raise rates, but it's definitely not going to cut,''
Read full article here


FTSE 100   to plunge another 10%   as year-long bear market looms
Read full article here


Record numbers face debt meltdown
Read full article here


Markets fear there is more to come
Read full article here


"...it would be naive to think the worst is behind us."
Read full article here


Hedge funds braced for more pain
Read full article here


History says bear market may have begun.
Read full article here



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The last time the FTSE100 reached the heady heights of 2006 was in 2000.
The chart below shows what happened then. It took the best part of 3 years before it finally hit rock bottom.
From this, you may well deduce that this months downturn could well be the beginnings of something that will last a while yet.
My own feeling is that the FTSE100 won't begin to recover again until it has first breached 4800 - sometime next year.

That chart in the above post deserves a bit of attention. I mean, how obvious does it have to be ???

Analysts at Deutsche Bank Securities maintain their "buy" rating on Experian while reducing their estimates for the company. The target price has been reduced from 723p to 614p. In a research note published yesterday, the analysts mention that the recent decline in Experian's share price seems to be overdone, despite a rise in risks associated with the company. The consumer credit markets are currently much more resilient than is believed by the market, the analysts say. The EPS estimates for 2008 and 2009 have been reduced by 4% and 9%, respectively.

The Investment Column: Experian's high rating is open to question after cautious outlook
Published: 11 October 2007


The sub-prime crisis that has gripped the financial markets for the past three months may no longer be making the headlines but the fallout has plenty of legs left in it.

Experian, the world's largest consumer credit rating agency, was sharply lower in yesterday's trade on the back of cautious comments on the UK and US markets the company made along with a first-half trading update. To say that the market looks challenging is an understatement.

Even so, the numbers themselves were encouraging despite the underlying market conditions. Total growth for the first half should come in at 17 per cent, 6 per cent of which was organic. The company is confident it will hit market forecasts for the full year, implying pre-tax profits in the region of 425m, translating into per-share earnings of 31.9p.

However, the shares have been highly rated since demerging from GUS a year ago, so it is no wonder the market reacted so negatively to yesterday's statement. But bad news rarely comes in ones and investors have little reason to believe that there is going to be any positive news in the credit markets any time soon.

Of particular concern is the performance of LowerMyBills, a US subsidiary involved directly in the sub-prime mortgage market, where revenues fell by 20 per cent. Experian said that not including LowerMyBills organic growth would have been 2 per cent higher, but that is completely irrelevant.

The news from outside developed markets was more encouraging. The 65 per cent stake in Serasa, a Brazilian agency acquired in June for $1.2bn (590m), delivered organic growth at constant exchange rates of 46 per cent, and with an $800m war chest Experian is well positioned to make further acquisitions.

The shares trade on approximately 14.3 times forecast 2008 earnings, not overly expensive but not exactly a bargain either. The fallout from the sub-prime disaster is just beginning to filter through and the downside risk must outweigh the upside. Despite this solid performance and yesterday's sell off, there are not enough good reasons to buy the shares.

From The Times
October 11, 2007
Nick Hassell: Tempus

Exactly a year on, the break-up of GUS is looking dangerously like the FTSE 100 demerger that destroyed shareholder value.

Shares in Home Retail Group, the owner of Argos and Homebase, sit more than 2 per cent below the level at which they were spun off.

Experian, the credit reference agency which raised fresh equity on the split, has fared even worse: down nearly 10 per cent after yesterdays trading statement.

At first read, that update appeared anodyne. Organic sales growth of 6 per cent for the first half was modestly down on the 7 per cent reported for the first quarter, but that was much as expected. The company also confirmed it was on track to meet full-year forecasts.

But what troubled was the evidence that the toll of the US mortgage lending downturn has only worsened over the past three months. Organic growth in the US slowed to 3 per cent in the quarter to September 30, down from 7 per cent in the previous period. Trading at LowerMyBills, Experians US website that directs customers from search engines to potential loan providers continues to deteriorate. That operation is small in the context of Experians overall business it accounts for less than 5 per cent of group sales but it is worrying that management predicted in July that the first quarter should mark the lowpoint. That it has not triggers worrying associations with HSBCs Household operation, which found that, when the US sub-prime downturn took hold, its business did not behave as its models had predicted. Then there is Experians Fares joint venture, which draws half of its sales from new mortgage lending and accounts for 6 per cent of operating profits. Its performance was not split out, but recent job cuts at First American, its US majority owner, do not augur well.

The other concern is that Experians shares had been buoyed by the view that demerger had left it vulnerable to takeover. However, turbulent credit markets mean that prop has now disappeared.

That is not to say Experian will not fare well in a downturn. Tougher times create demand for increased cross-checking of a potential customers creditworthiness. It is also benefiting from a shift among its bank customers from loan acquisition to higher-margin activities such as cross-selling and credit collection. It is tempting to read yesterdays 7 per cent fall in the shares as punishment that Experian, unlike GUS, has overpromised and underdelivered. But at 16 times next years earnings, it is worth holding on.

Experian, the credit checking group, shed 12 to 476p after Morgan Stanley lowered its recommendation on the shares to equal-weight from overweight. Analyst Jessica Flounders also reduced her target price by 24pc to 560p, arguing that earnings were slowing and that a private equity takeover looked increasingly less likely because of the credit crunch.

Extract from recent RNS:

"Experian said market conditions are not expected to improve in the near term, but action on costs coupled with the variable nature of customer acquisition spend ensured the business remained profitable, albeit with lower margins.

The company announced a first interim dividend of 6.5 pence per share."

Sp is down 11% this morning. It would be interesting to know what the latest broker target is for this stock now.

A bit more info here http://moneyam.com/action/news/show/article?id=2428692

Agree H about latest BT. With their investments abroad.. worth keeping an eye on this lot.

Correction to the RNS. The divi is actually 6.5 cents per share!
"* Profit before tax of $285m. Benchmark profit before tax of $396m.
* Basic EPS of 22.2 cents. Benchmark EPS of 29.5 cents.
* First interim dividend increased by 18% to 6.5 cents per share.
* Net debt of $3.0bn after funding acquisitions of $1.7bn, mainly Serasa and
Hitwise."
Looks like the ex-divi date is mid December, but not certain.

The graph is no help with knowing where the bottom is, so remaining as a watcher for the moment & will try a little bottom fishing when the sp looks like it is due for a bounce.

EXPN target has been reduced.

Have you got a link to that news please H98?

Today on Digitallook.com Seymour Pierce have a HOLD rating with price target of 540p. Panmure Gordon have a BUY rating, with a 675p target.
The fact that they are so far apart in their rating leads me to believe that they don't really know where the sp is heading.

Director/PDMR Shareholding today, (Click on the News links for details.)

Wonder what he knows that we don't? he certainly didn't buy having looked at the chart I know.

This had a Director buying a few more recently. Also, given that the security issues of having 25m peoples details lost is going to have longer term repercussions, then now looks like EXPN could be a good medium term investment?
Just my 2p's worth....