.

All I can say is its going to be mighty interesting when we get the full well results and details of what happened.

I think the "re-spud" rumours were correct and the drilling rig problems caused them to re-spud after the rig was repaired.

This is based on the Darwin East coordinates on the EIS and the fact the rig is some 200 metres west of those EIS coordinates for the well.

If the well was spud again on the 16th March (which ties in with the comment of news in 4 to 5 weeks) its worth nothing that :

Drill time to TD was estimated at 28 days and rig on site was 38 days.

EG they would get to TD on the 28th day of drilling, then spend some time going wireline and collecting fluid samples etc.. and then finally P&A the well.

So on an ideal timescale news would come after 5 weeks.

If things went really well and no problems then news after the 4th week.

If there were some delays news would be after the 5 weeks.


So 16th March + 28 days = Friday 13th April for TD
+5 days for wireline and interpretation = Wed 18th April
P&A complete and rig move to Stebbing = Mon 23rd April (the 38th day).

Now, drilling never ever goes to plan and is normally delayed, so I suggest its possible for news this coming week, but likely it will be the week commencing Monday 23rd April - if there has been a few days delays picked up over the drilling time.

Its getting mighty close, thats for sure, and the rumours of gas would be just about right for entering the target zone with a few days of delays picked up along the way.

Watch for volume this coming week, if it goes over 5 million shares on any day - that would look like a leak of news..............

Lost a large fish yesterday! Left me attached to a large rock after a short and furious fight. Watched a chum land a sea-liced fish of 22lbs.

Now waiting for RKH to go when the farm-in news goes live.

5m is only double the norm, so while quite heavy, is not exactly massive, though if consistently high, then arguably but far from necessarily something of note could be afoot

:-(( for you then

Some talk of VSP being done.

You would conduct VSP if :

You have encountered gas shows and what to check that there are no overpressure zones before drilling into them, so you can correctly set the mud etc.. to ensure you do not lose control of the well.

You have encountered a problem (junk in the well, stringer, string jam etc..) and want to sidetrack around it.

You want to check the reservoir structure and fracturing etc...


There is no massive sell off or massive buying, so I would guess they are checking for any overpressure zones before drilling through them on their way down to the flat spot - eg some time to go, not even into the target zone yet, just above it perhaps and are having gas shows - so checking with VSP before drilling into possible gas bearing sands to ensure no overpressure zones.

But hey, I do not know.

Thanks Prosels.....even if just rumours...nice to read anyway....

All I do know is when the rig problems rumours come out, we did over 5 million volume that day.

So far volume is again normal (normal being 2.5 million or less in a day).

So whatever is happening at the moment is neutral - not causing any panic selling and not causing any rushed buying.

I quote.......


..............A major use of the VSP is to invert it into a syntetic acoustic impedance log, and use this to predict overpressure below the current depth of the well. The drilling program and mud properties can be adjusted to reflect overpressure zones detected on the inverted impedance log..................

Nice :)

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2012/04/201241517107911574.html

.

Volume is slightly over average now, on for about 3 million shares if it stays the same for the rest of the way.

strange - L2 shows cumulative volume for today at only 1.75m

Volume is slowing down, might struggle to do 2.5 million now.

You have to admit that this is a bit of a gamble here !....to me FOGL is a little less riskier than BOR...the trouble is that if BOR do discover hydrocarbons in quantity : FOGL will rise just as much in my opinion...perhaps not quite as much but a very big sp increase is on the cards....or they discover nothing.....I think that somewhere within these south falkland licences lies an oil reservoir.....exciting times....

First III rumour - take with large pinches of salt ;)



15:18 Hold - Log not finished yet! BOR.L

Sounds like we have more 18m of oil
plus first oil shows 10m
Log not finished yet!
c'mon Darwin you can do better than that !!!!!!
50-80m more

On a technical point of view the SP might close above the 50 day moving average for the first time in a long time.

2nd biggest volume day of late as well.



.

Interesting times.............. very interesting.

Gas would prove a working hydrocarbon system in the south - thats good news for FOGL as well as BOR.

Will there be oil shows ? Will there be net pay of oil ? Will BOR run a sidetrack off to a thicker section ? How much gas net pay ? Keep on watching.

The only scenario that would fit with all the posters who claim to have info is :

BOR have struck gas so far.
With actual drill data to calibrate seismic they now have a better understanding.
BOR believe a sidetrack is needed to get into the oil section.

Interim RNS may come talking about gas, perhaps oil shows and that a sidetrack is underway/to commence to potential oil bearing section.


Any mention of gas or oil which validates the South Falklands Basin has a working hydrocarbon system is great news - esp for FOGL who would benefit greatly from this proof.


And all of the above could actually be wrong, well, more than likely wrong...... :)

Well, there is another scenario and that is same as the above, that the sidetrack is already underway and they struck oil yesterday............

Which is a nicer one to think about :) !

A post from III on the subject of gas and sidetracks as this seems to be a topic to discuss to alleviate the boredom :




...........Well _if_ they are doing a side-track, I can see no reason other than they have reached TD (ie bottom of reservoir) and have hit gas, but not water or oil.

Either water or oil would be end of story.

If so either the flat spot is a nonsense, or there is a horizontal error:

Darwin is a tilted fault-block, and if the tilt is 10 degrees, and the reservoir thickness is 100m, then flat-spot would extend only about 500m horizontally down dip.In this situation, I can see that VSP would make sense. Gramacho, what is your take on this? You looked at the seismic slide with better eyes than mine.

Final thought: gas, although disappointing, is still worth something. Here's what BOR said in 2009:

"Whilst the exploration drilling program will target high-graded oil prospects, each prospect has also been considered as a gas case. If gas was the only outcome, and we consider it unlikely, then the prospect gas volumes would be sufficient to justify an LNG development. Individual prospect volumes can exceed (P50) 5 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas"

All speculation, until the RNS. Back to bed now fadilz...........

A few 100K buy orders lined up on the bid side of FOGL and BOR.

Wonder what that means ? ;)