looks like its hit oil, don't know whats gonna happen, any idea's ???

I considered selling my Stetson but have decided to keep it. Here's why: The Holland assets are there, they just need to be taken out of the ground, and, they alone, justify a price of 1. Then there's Bouldnor which now looks much better than the previous calculated chance of 20% because the oil has seeped so far west (and it must come from somewhere). Finally there's Italy etc..

Also note that Northern DID find oil, unfortunately bacteria had lunched on it, making it worthless.

The market has clearly panicked, but observe the current price drop happened on a miniscule volume relative to the market cap.

Time to buy a gallon hat.

Niels Hi,

I think there will be another drop on monday, as the blue sky is further away now, and money to be made elsewhere by those still with an option to sell, which they may not have been able to do today, due to being at work, and their first chance to sell will therefore be monday morning.

The chart suggests there are still people in here, with a cost price of between 45p and 55p, and that is where I think the price is heading next week.

Cheers,
PM

If one intends to top up then that's OK. The blue sky is there, it's just that people can't see it for irrelevant clouds.

Niels Hi,

Topping up at 45p to 55p suits me fine :)

Cheers,
PM

Press clip from the "Oil" of Wight: Buggers

If there's oil at Bouldnor, share price may go to 17. I don't really believe this, but read the Evolution update here: http://www.research.evosecurities.com/

Select Company and then find Northern Petroleum.

Did you top-up Paul?

Thanks Niels ,have just read Evolution report and read the part about 17 a share,hang on a minute i`ve just seen a flying pig.
Back to reality ! the report does seem very optimistic about the future SP even if finds are at the lower levels.
DB66

Niels Hi,

Missed the 54p low as a chance to top up, as I was hoping for a lower price, but it could still drop back down there before news arrives.

You have to register with EVO to get the note, I am already registered, so if you have trouble registering(they don't accept free email addresses like hotmail !), send me an e-mail to ME and I will send you the note.

Cheers,
PM

Not so sure about bouldnor either now ....

"But as the rig moves over to drill another trial borehole in Forestry Commission land at Bouldnor Copse 1, there was cautious optimism for that site, even though it has always been a higher-risk prospect than the Sandhills 2 well at Porchfield."

Part of the EVO note ....

Impact on valuation independent experts ECL recent report attributed 6.64m
barrels of 2P reserves to NOP for the Sandhills Great Oolite structure, on the
basis that this was an appraisal of an existing discovery. Removal of these
reserves cuts ECLs Southern England 2P number from 10.24m to 3.6m barrels.

Our value of NOPs core value based on 2P reserves from Southern England and
the Netherlands and cash on the balance sheet drops from 144p to 90p/share.

Our core value does not include almost 10m barrels of reserves in the Papekop
field in the Netherlands, which is subject to licence approval.

Of course this core value does not include any risked EMV for the Bouldnor
Copse well, which is to be drilled once the rig has moved from Sandhills.
Bouldnor Copse has large potential but is inherently more risky as the structure
has not been drilled before. NOP indicate up to 300m barrels potential with a
70% interest which could be worth a staggering 17/share unrisked. Partner Oil
Quest suggests a more modest 55m barrels of P10 reserves for the Sherwood
Prospect at Bouldnor Copse, but even this level of reserve could be worth over
3/share unrisked net to NOP.


I guess the risk is very very high, unless they find oil worth pumping, they will stay at 60p or less, until Netherlands oil is sorted, then they could move to over 1.

Niels, any idea when drilling is going to start at Bouldnor ?

Cheers,
PM

A wild guess would be that they have begun ,or will in a few days. They've had ample time to prepare the site and I cannot see the rig anymore.

Note that the chance of finding oil at Bouldnor is now better than it was before. Also, they were right; there was oil at Sandhills, this indicates that the source is very likely to intersect with the Bouldnor site. Here the oil would be too deep for microbes to eat it. So, maybe there's a better than 50% chance the shares soar. Not bad in my book.

Niels Hi,

Quite agree, and with the NAV of the oil in Holland, the price should not be any lower when that comes online anyway, so that makes it a nil-risk ????

Any idea how long it will take to drill Bouldnor, as it is deeper than Sandhills ?

Cheers,
PM

Here we go, back to 1 before we know it !!

Just topped up, with buys of 3399 and 3622




Immediate Release: 19 September 2005

Northern Petroleum Plc

('Northern')

Bouldnor Copse-1 commences drilling

Northern Petroleum Plc announces that drilling commenced at the Bouldnor
Copse-1 well on the Isle of Wight on 17 September 2005. The well is located in
PEDL 089(A) at co-ordinates 438537E 090179N and has a planned total measured
depth of 5000 feet. The primary target is the Sherwood Sandstone where Northern
is targeting an oil prospect independently evaluated by ECL as being of the
size of up to 300 million barrels in place with the Great Oolite as a potential
secondary objective.

The rig has been erected at the Bouldnor Copse-1 drill site following the
completion of operations at Sandhills-2 where Northern confirmed that oil has
moved into the migration range of Bouldnor Copse-1.

Northern has a 70% interest in PEDL 089(A).

Derek Musgrove, Managing Director, commented,

'The Bouldnor Copse-1 prospect is both deeper and potentially larger than that
of the previously drilled Sandhills-2. It should be noted that our primary
target is considered to be beyond the depth for the potential for
biodegradation as encountered at Sandhills-2.

As with the Sandhills-2 well the Company intends to provide at least one
drilling report per week on Wednesdays during operations.

PEDL 089(A) partners are

Northern Petroleum (GB) Limited 70%

Wessex Exploration Limited 20%

Oil Quest Resources Plc 10%

-Ends-

For further information contact:

Derek Musgrove

Northern Petroleum

Tel. 020 7743 6080

Chris Roberts/Ben Simons

Hansard Communications

Tel. 020 7245 1100

I think its top up time,and hope for a quick rise.

Hi All,

OILQ are also quoting the 300,000,000 barrels now, rather than the 55,000,000 that they were quoting, as per the last EVO note, so it seems they have got bullish too :)


Oil Quest Resources PLC
19 September 2005

19 September 2005



OIL QUEST RESOURCES plc
(Ticker: OILQ)

Bouldner Copse-1 Commences Drilling



The directors of Oil Quest Resources plc ('Oil Quest' or the 'Company') are
pleased to announce that the Company has been informed by Northern Petroleum Plc
that drilling has commenced at Bouldnor Copse-1 well on the Isle of Wight. Oil
Quest has a 10 per cent. interest in Bouldnor Copse-1.





The well is located in PEDL 089(A) at co-ordinates 438537E 090179N and has a
planned measured depth of 5,000 feet. The primary target is the Sherwood
Sandstone where an oil prospect has been independently evaluated by ECL as being
of the size of up to 300 million barrels in place. The Great Oolite is a
potential secondary objective.

EVO state 300,000,000 barells will make NOP worth 13 per share, and the oil is too deep for bacteria to have eaten it, so up we go, could be a few quid before we even get the result of the drilling, due to the potential upside :)

Cheers,
PM

When will the oil run out?

Experts argue: Now or 30 years away

By GEORGE JAHN
Associated Press Writer

VIENNA, Austria | Fact: World oil production will peak someday, and supplies will start running out. But when will the tipping point come -- in years, decades, or a couple of months from now?

The oil industry says crude will be plentiful for at least another generation. But some experts argue reserves are overstated, oil technologies are limited and demand, sharply boosted by the needs of China and India, could soon outpace supply.

European Union finance ministers are asking the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries to ramp up production when the Saudi-led cartel meets Sept. 19 in Vienna -- despite the failure of similar boosts over the past year and a half.

Skeptics say that won't work.

"World oil production is going to peak on American Thanksgiving, with a three-week period of uncertainty on each side," declares Princeton professor, geologist and oil maverick Kenneth S. Deffeyes. He uses a formula first developed to pinpoint with near accuracy 1971 as the start of oil production decline in the United States.

Once supply begins to dwindle, the years to follow will see shortages that at best will cause "global recession, possibly worse than the 1930s Great Depression," says Deffeyes. At worst, he warns of "war, famine, pestilence and death."

Deffeyes' prediction is clearly controversial. Still, it is gaining an audience, and dozens of energy experts and academics say his arguments have merit.

With supply already barely matching demand and prices high and rising, the U.S. oil giant Chevron has begun running ads declaring that "the era of easy oil is over." And normally skeptical organizations are expressing worry.

"The world has never faced a problem like this," says a report prepared this year for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Technology Laboratory. Although oil companies have searched intensively for new oil finds, "results have been disappointing," says the report, from Science Applications International, which focuses on security and energy concerns.

More worrisome are claims of inflated reporting by the Saudis, Iran and most other OPEC members whose national oil companies are not legally subject to audits and other controls. Even firms like Shell and Chevron are thought to base their proven reserve figures in the Middle East in part on unchecked numbers provided by OPEC-member state companies.

OPEC nations deny padding their figures but even governments are becoming openly skeptical.

British Treasury chief Gordon Brown on Tuesday urged OPEC members to "become more open and transparent" on how much oil they really have and how they plan to develop it.

Energy expert Matthew Simmons says that except for Libya, Algeria and Nigeria, OPEC countries tripled their reserve numbers in the 1980s with no supporting data.

Simmons, who advised George W. Bush's 2000 presidential campaign, says most OPEC nations were involved in a "proven-reserves arms race" -- overstating recoverable stocks because the organization assigned production quotas according to each country's reserves.

In reality, Saudi reserves are probably closer to what they said they had 25 years ago and the same goes for most other OPEC nations, said Simmons. Middle East proven reserves are very likely only a third of the approximately 700 billion barrels being claimed, he said.

Simmons, whose Houston-based Simmons & Company investment firm guides companies in energy-related acquisitions, is also dismissive of claims that improved technology will increase oil recovery from reserves. He points to the story of North Sea oil, whose production peaked six years ago, despite all-out industry attempts to tap unexploitable reserves through new means.

So when is oil going to peak?

Simmons won't go as far as Deffeyes and his Thanksgiving projection. Still, he points to the world's present huge appetite for crude in saying the decline may begin sooner than some think, but will stretch over decades before the last barrel is used up.

"The difference between peak oil happening and (oil) running out completely is the difference between me saying 'I'm getting slightly hungry' and 'I'm starving to death,"' he said.

Hi All,

A nice rise today, more to come as people think about the possibility of 17 a share, with no current downside, as the Netherlands oil supports the price right up to 90p :)

UK-Analyst snippet tonight, usually gets buyers going the following morning, especially as they have mentioned the 300mm bbl target :)


"Northern Petroleum shares added 3.5p to 63.5p after the company revealed that drilling started at its Bouldnor Copse-1 well on the Isle of Wight on September 17th. The primary target is the Sherwood Sandstone where Northern is targeting an oil prospect independently evaluated by ECL as being of the size of up to 300 million barrels in place with the Great Oolite as a potential secondary objective. Oil Quest Resources* owns a 7.5% stake in the Isle of Wight license. Its shares rose 1.5p to 14.5p."


And EVO state the following ....

Our value of NOPs core value based on 2P reserves from Southern England and
the Netherlands and cash on the balance sheet drops from 144p to 90p/share.
Our core value does not include almost 10m barrels of reserves in the Papekop
field in the Netherlands, which is subject to licence approval.

Of course this core value does not include any risked EMV for the Bouldnor
Copse well, which is to be drilled once the rig has moved from Sandhills.
Bouldnor Copse has large potential but is inherently more risky as the structure
has not been drilled before. NOP indicate up to 300m barrels potential with a
70% interest which could be worth a staggering 17/share unrisked. Partner Oil
Quest suggests a more modest 55m barrels of P10 reserves for the Sherwood
Prospect at Bouldnor Copse, but even this level of reserve could be worth over
3/share unrisked net to NOP.

Our core plus risked EMV is 296p/share compared to 376p/share prior to the
Sandhills result.


Maybe there are a few big players out there ready to take a big chunk of a potential 20 bagger with little or no downside from bouldnor ????

Cheers,
PM

Please Paul, we all know this. I like your detailled research on SEO etc. but we really don't need any ramping here; so kindly take a hint....

Niels Hi,

Not ramping, simply highlighting the facts :)

If I'm proven wrong over the next few days and weeks, as drilling gets closer and closer to the target, feel free to say 'I told you so' :)

Cheers,
PM