What a chart, further to go, or not
Comments please

i guess the implication is that PMO will now not go belly-up

Nomura comment today:
"We outline three reasons to turn buyers: 1) our analysis of the data for the pending EON deal suggests it is value accretive and positive to PMO's debt covenants; 2) the re-negotiation of partner capex carry in Falklands reduces the future debt; and 3) the above two factors increase the duration and value of the call option that PMO shares offer investors to higher oil prices. The downside case is an equity valuation that is negligible if the forward curve materialises, which should be well known. However, we also see an option with a payoff of greater than 5x in the event of higher prices (NMRe NAV of c200p/sh assuming USD 70/bbl and 45p/therm). With increasing capacity to survive current prices for at least 12 months, we think the risk-reward from a broader portfolio basis (either as a hedge to UW Energy position or as an outright bull on oil prices), is worth taking. Short-term, our base case is the UKLA lifts the existing trading suspension (either when PMO/EON can either produce the relevant financial information or the authority decides this transaction is not a reverse takeover) and we anticipate the shares should trade materially higher, beyond pre-suspension levels of 40p (last close price of 19p/sh).

We view the USD 120m E.On UK acquisition as positive as: 1) the predominately gas assets reduces the stock’s NPV sensitivity (using a 10% discount rate) to weaker oil prices; 2) the assets increase our risked NAV by c35p/share on the forward curve, including c25p from higher utilisation of historic UK tax losses; and 3) it increases the company’s 2016 covenant headroom by cUSD 500m.

A USD 30-40/bbl outlook through 2016/17 leaves debt covenants precariously poised with ND/EBITDAX above 6x (covenant is currently 4.75x). Whilst we believe lending banks will be flexible during 2016, management remains under pressure to deliver on cost reduction and portfolio restructuring into 2017."

StockMarketWire.com
Premier Oil has extended its FY pretax loss to USD829.6m, from a year-ago loss of USD362.5m. Sales revenue was USD1.07bn, from USD1.63bn.

Production averaged 57.6 kboepd (2014: 63.6 kboepd), exceeding Premier's market guidance despite disposals of non-core assets.

CEO Tony Durrant commented:
"Despite the significant reduction in oil and gas prices, reflected in our results today, 2015 was a year in which we exceeded production guidance, added to reserves, achieved notable exploration success and reached agreement on a value-adding acquisition.

"We also reduced operating costs by over 25 per cent, significantly cut back on current and future development spend and disposed of negative cash flow assets.

"Our forward plan includes further actions to reduce debt, positioning ourselves for a prolonged period of lower oil prices, whilst continuing to take actions to build longer-term value for a recovering commodity environment."

HIGHLIGHTS
* Proposed acquisition of E.ON's UK assets: strongly value accretive, adds c.15 kboepd of 2016 net production and captures a valuable hedging programme; good progress on approvals with the lending group

* Solan first oil is expected shortly; plans for second oil and ramp up to full production progressing in line with previous guidance

* The Catcher project is under budget and BW Offshore, our FPSO provider, maintain a delivery schedule for first oil in 2017; ongoing development drilling results are encouraging

* Sea Lion Phase 1 project scope modified with lower break-even oil price; new contractual arrangements agreed with Sea Lion partner, and FEED contracts now in place; significant exploration successes at Zebedee and Isobel Deep

* Continued portfolio rationalization with the sale of the Norwegian business for US$120 million; Pakistan sales process ongoing.

Looks an interesting investment now and slightly safer than some of the other minnows which are bouncing on the strength of oil.

TLW hasn't been too shabby either

From the FT:
"North Sea oil producers are in talks to put aside their commercial rivalries and collaborate on an unprecedented scale as they look to slash costs amid some of the toughest market conditions the sector has ever faced.

Premier Oil, one of the biggest independent producers in the North Sea, is leading talks with a handful of other oil companies to merge substantial parts of their operations, including procurement, logistics and finance departments.

The move would be the most significant co-operation ever seen in what is normally a hyper-competitive industry, where companies fight for the smallest advantage over their rivals. The fact that such measures are even being discussed is a sign of how difficult conditions are in the North Sea, where high costs leave companies particularly exposed to the slumping oil price.

Tony Durrant, Premier’s chief executive, said: “We are talking about shared rigs, shared logistics, shared back offices. We are at an early stage, the talks are quite complicated and there are lots of parts involved, but this could be quite radical for our industry.”

Under the plans being discussed, companies could set up a central procurement unit that would buy parts such as valves or piping, which could then be purchased or leased by individual operators.They could also create other joint back offices, dealing with everything from finance to human resources and logistics.

Such a move would end the practice of increasing differentiation in the equipment that companies use, which has helped drive up costs across the industry. Operators use 28 different shades of yellow paint, for example, to paint their subsea equipment, as well as 250 types of valve stem, each 1/1000th of an inch different in size.

Ministers and regulators have been urging companies for months to collaborate more to try and extend the lifespan of the UK North Sea. Oil and Gas UK, the industry body, warned last month that if oil stays at about $30 a barrel for the rest of 2016, nearly half of all fields will be loss making.
Last year the government set up a new regulator, called the Oil and Gas Authority, with a remit to encourage companies to work together to cut costs."

Pushing gently higher on the back of $40pb for crude and the commercial collaboration.

Credit Suisse today reaffirms its underperform investment rating on Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) and raised its price target to 30p (from 20p).

Nomura today reaffirms its buy investment rating on Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) and raised its price target to 85p (from 80p)

Has PMO reached bottom at this stage 39.25p?
Large retracement 76.4% after reaching 56.50p intraday high
Oil prices are loosing ground for the last couple days

Huge risk playing any of these small oilers right now.

Bouncing back now 42p as oil price do the same since 2pm

Brent oil

Are Analysts Bearish Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) After Last Week?
MARCH 28, 2016 BY DAVID HANNULA IN STOCK NEWS

Out of 23 analysts covering Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO), 12 rate it “Buy”, 3 “Sell”, while 8 “Hold”. This means 52% are positive. Premier Oil PLC was the topic in 122 analyst reports since July 24, 2015 according to StockzIntelligence Inc. Below is a list of Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) latest ratings and price target changes.

18/03/2016 Broker: Nomura Rating: Buy Old Target: GBX 80.00 New Target: GBX 85.00 Upgrade
18/03/2016 Broker: Credit Suisse Rating: Underperform Old Target: GBX 20.00 New Target: GBX 30.00 Maintain
09/03/2016 Broker: BNP Paribas Rating: Neutral New Target: GBX 36 Maintain
03/03/2016 Broker: Davy Research Rating: Neutral Maintain
01/03/2016 Broker: Stifel Nicolaus Rating: Sell New Target: GBX 18 Maintain
29/02/2016 Broker: BNP Paribas Rating: Neutral Old Target: GBX 36.00 New Target: GBX 36.00 Maintain
29/02/2016 Broker: Barclays Capital Rating: Equal Weight Old Target: GBX 50.00 New Target: GBX 50.00 Maintain
26/02/2016 Broker: J.P. Morgan Rating: Neutral New Target: GBX 63 Maintain
26/02/2016 Broker: Barclays Capital Rating: Equal Weight Old Target: GBX 50.00 New Target: GBX 50.00 Maintain
26/02/2016 Broker: Deutsche Bank Rating: Buy Old Target: GBX 140.00 New Target: GBX 150.00 Maintain

The stock decreased 5.31% or GBX 2.31 on March 24, hitting GBX 41.19. Premier Oil PLC (LON:PMO) has declined 54.93% since August 26, 2015 and is downtrending. It has underperformed by 52.83% the S&P500.

Premier Oil plc is an independent exploration and production company. The company has a market cap of 211.76 million GBP. The Firm has gas and oil interests in the North Sea, South East Asia, Pakistan and the Falkland Islands. It currently has negative earnings. The Company’s activities are located and managed in seven business units: the Falkland Islands, Indonesia, Norway, Pakistan , the United Kingdom, Vietnam and the Rest of the World.

The institutional sentiment decreased to 0.81 in 2015 Q3. Its down 0.43, from 1.24 in 2015Q2. The ratio is negative, as 3 funds sold all Premier Oil PLC shares owned while 18 reduced positions. 7 funds bought stakes while 10 increased positions. They now own 7.17 million shares or 5.49% less from 7.58 million shares in 2015Q2.

New Vernon Investment Management Llc holds 2.92% of its portfolio in Premier Oil PLC for 310,000 shares. Samson Capital Advisors Llc owns 266,747 shares or 1.4% of their US portfolio. Moreover, Karpus Management Inc. has 1.04% invested in the company for 1.88 million shares. The New Jersey-based Brave Asset Management Inc has invested 0.89% in the stock. Oak Hill Advisors Lp, a New York-based fund reported 257,500 shares.

Lower oil price and news from the UN about Argentina rights to Falkland waters, got the stock lower yesterday, but today it bounce strongly 44p +5.25p

bull run starting?, well I said that 38 days ago

Oil trader who predicted slump sees bull run starting
By SAIJEL KISHAN, GRANT SMITH on 3/30/2016

LONDON (Bloomberg) -- Pierre Andurand, a hedge fund manager who predicted the oil collapse, said crude is starting a “multi-year bull run” because low prices have curbed supply.

Crude futures, currently trading near $40/bbl, will rebound to $60 to $70 this year and $80 in 2017, the chief investment officer of London-based hedge fund Andurand Capital Management LLP said in a newsletter to investors. A spokesman for the money manager declined to comment.

“Large spending cuts are taking a toll on operational maintenance,” according to the newsletter, which was dated February. “After having been in an oversupplied market we expect inventory draws to start in a few months and accelerate quickly.”

Oil has slumped about 60% since mid-2014, prompting companies to lay off workers, cut investment and cancel some projects. While prices have rebounded from a 12-year low reached earlier this year amid speculation the surplus is easing as U.S. output declines, stockpiles in the world’s largest oil consumer continue to grow.

OPEC leader Saudi Arabia has already achieved its objective of curbing supply growth from rivals, and its diplomatic efforts with fellow producers may be aimed at averting a price surge in coming years as production falls short of demand, according to the newsletter. Most OPEC members will meet with Russia on April 17 in Doha to complete an accord on capping oil production, an initiative that has helped revive prices.

“It is possible that the Saudis are now less worried about short-term downside risk than medium-term large upside risk,” Andurand wrote. The kingdom, which “does not want crude oil prices to spike,” has realized that the slump in later-dated futures prices “has created a significant supply gap in the years to come.”

MacQuarie summary today:
"We downgrade Premier to Neutral ahead of approval of the E.ON transaction. We adjust our Fair Value down to 44p (from 144p) on balance sheet concerns. Pre-adjustment NAV remains high at 133p, but the risks to be overcome before accessing this oil price leverage are too high, in our view."

Yesterday's drop on the oil price had a large impact but today it was reverse as the oil price bounce back

43.875p + 1.50p

going places since last Friday 48.50p +2p

oil price on the way up also

Chart shows what’s really driving crude-oil prices - By Mark DeCambre - Apr 11, 2016 16:13

Inverse relationship with dollar holding strong

When one goes up, the other goes down.
Supply glut? Worries about waning demand? All of these factors may have contributed to crude oil losing nearly two-thirds of its value since its peak in June 2014. But a chart tweeted on Monday by Charlie Bilello, director of research at Pension Partners, highlights another key factor swaying crude’s gyrations.



Bilello’s graphic shows that while oil has tumbled more than 60% over the course of the past year and a half, the dollar—as gauged by the ICE U.S. Dollar Index DXY, -0.20% —the has climbed nearly 17%. The data underscore a striking negative correlation between the dollar and crude futures CLK6, +1.61% which are priced in dollars. In other words, the stronger the greenback, the more expensive it makes oil to buyers using other monetary units.

The fact that the buck has influenced crude prices in that way isn’t surprising, but the degree to which the currency weighs on oil is striking. Oil on Monday ended above $40 a barrel for the first time in nearly three weeks on Monday.

Bilello told MarketWatch that the moves in the dollar and crude may be catching some investors flat-footed since few expected a lower dollar in an environment in which the Federal Reserve declared itself on a path toward interest-rate normalization at the end of 2015.

Crude’s upswing may also be a surprise to investors who believed supply strains might continue to dog investors. MarketWatch veteran Myra Saefong explains why crude prices have rallied recently. A meeting of major oil producers in Doha on April 17 to discuss a freeze in oil output also is being followed closely since it could stabilize prices.

“If this reversal continues, [it] will have an impact across many asset classes. Entering Q1 earnings, [we] should start to see this help S&P 500 earnings on the margin as higher dollar/lower Crude was weighing on earnings over the past year,” Bilello said.

The chart also recalls a research note from a team of Morgan Stanley analysts led by Adam Longson, head of energy commodity research which made the case in January that traders have applied too much blame in tumbling commodity prices like oil on market fundamentals, rather than the dollar. Indeed, some analysts had argued in 2014 that the dollar’s rally was the primary driver of the crude rout.

Lingering concerns about economic conditions overseas have prevented the Fed from further tightening monetary policy, so far. For now, that seems to be good news for those hoping to see oil ramp higher and bad news for dollar bulls.

52.75p +2.25p

another push up, as is looking for 55p at this rate as next round figure
oil prices on the rise is helping as one would expect.