http://www.falklands-oil.com/

http://www.rockhopperexploration.co.uk

http://www.argosresources.com/




Rockhopper was established in 2004 with a strategy to invest in and undertake an offshore oil exploration programme in the North Falkland Basin. It was floated on AIM in August 2005. Rockhopper was the first company to make a commercial oil discovery in the Falklands. Today Rockhopper is the largest acreage holder in the North Falkland Basin, with interests in the Greater Mediterranean region.

The proposed new port being discussed will be part of the infrastructure that is already being implemeted. The new flights bringing more workers and support people are an indication of the increased activity.
Needless to say that the hisdtorical prime mover in the islands is the F.I.Company (FKL). If you look at their perfomance in the past 10 days you will see where a lot of the smart money is going. With more diverse interests it is much more stable.
Not ramping but pointing out a consequence of the oil industry's arrival.

A good post from Gramacho from iii

Very good news in that the 2000 bbl/d test rate was strongly influenced by only the Main Fan contributing to flow due to the perforating gun failure.

There should not be any doubt that the Lower fan would have flowed had it been perforated as the Lower Fan pay quality was broadly similar to that of the Main Fan. The Lower Fan would have increased net pay of equivalent quality contributing to flow by 50%. Hence flow rates would have been expected to be a little under 50% higher had the Lower Fan been perforated (neglecting any benefits of a higher rate on flowing temperatures and reducing wax deposition).

The previous RNS indicated sustained flow rates of over 2000 bbl/d so we can assume the well would have flowed at about 3000 bbl/d had the guns opposite the Lower Fan fired correctly.

That leaves 1000 bbl/d potential rate increase not achieved that RKH is attributing to waxing of the tubing string above 800 metres, increased viscosity of the oil as it cooled in the upper part of the test string and a lack of specialist equipment , the latter reference being an ESP presumably. Wax deposition must have been evident on the DST string wellbore above 800m for the comment to have been made. This would mean wax deposition would have occurred over an interval of roughly350m of tubing prior to the injection of wax dissolver (perhaps they mean wax inhibitor). There was no comment about how heavily it was deposited so it is difficult to make any judgement on how much it influenced the flow rate. However I suspect that the majority of the additional 1000 bbl/d potential would be attributable to an ESP.

The 4000 bbl/d estimate sounds reasonable given the limited drawdown achievable under natural flow given the modest GOR of Sea Lion crude. It should be noted that the flowing wellhead pressure was only 120 psia so there was little extra pressure draw down available by opening the choke.

The absence of a statement about the test having a final pressure build up is concerning. They surely must have conducted one as reservoir permeability from a PBU analysis is a key output from a DST. The initial build up conducted to obtain reservoir pressure would only have looked a few feet into the reservoir, which is not necessarily representative of the wider area in this part of the field.

There is also no mention of flowing bottom hole pressures during the flow period which would have provided a much greater insight into potential well flow rate capability. Nor was there any mention of near well bore skin to determine whether there had been any drilling fluid damage and indeed to determine how effective the top guns had been at providing flow channels for crude entry to the wellbore.

There is more information to come from this test. Expect questions at the AGM about this. Excellent news overall though. The comparison with Sea Lions distant cousin the Foinaven Field West of Shetlands looks even closer with this news of additional flow potential. 10,000 bbl/d looks a good target for a high angle/horizontal where the fan is better developed. Ref my previous post link below if you missed it

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail/?action=list&code=cotn%3ARKH.L&it=le&type=discussion&display=discussion&fromdate=19%2F09%2F2010&todate=19%2F09%2F2010

Regards and GLA

Gramacho

got it wrong Mr P .... have just topped up again at 491 .... shows how little we all know

Missed the 491 but got 494 - now seriously overweight!

The news today had created a spike on the share price, but the trend ( short term ) for the last couple days is now down ( and this is why is doing short spikes down and then recovers some ground).

nice one cynic.,. notice he didn't reply.,.

why would he? .... it didn't coincide with his opinion!

i want to top up in both des and rkh but can't do both with any sense, which is the horse to back in your opinion cyners??

RKH is surely the safer bet, though there is a strong chance that a cash raising plan will be unveiled at AGM

Will be VERY interesting to see at what price they think they can issue more equity. No shortage of takers I would think, but suspect they will be more interested in long term institutional investors.

harry if they do a placing with institutions then existing shareholders could be significantly diluted.

Halifax

Are you still holding PAL ? i see you started the thread for it.

ald reply on PAL thread, what will happen to RKH sp when they announce their share placing DES has already beaten them to the draw by all accounts.

sorry hali, but that is a surprisingly naive question from you ..... the one has little to do with the other ..... each placing, albeit that the companies are almost related, would be assessed on its individual merits

cynic no doubt but also the degree of dilution will be taken into account by all shareholders.

well yes, though DES finished effectively unchanged on the day ..... so what point are you trying to make, though i rather feel you are not enamoured with RKH to start with

cynic no doubt RKH has made a discovery which may prove to be commercial, the only downside has to be the cost of recovering the oil bearing in mind the huge investment required in this potential oil province. We would be more enthusiastic if some major oil companies started to take an active interest in the FI,we hope it doesn't turn out to be another south sea bubble!

ah well, you and your merry men have a low opinion of TLW too, the logic for which has even less foundation .... btw, unless i am even more stupid than usual, i think the RKH find has already been proven and accepted as being commercial ..... perhaps you should try tulip bulb futures!

cynic RKH think it has commerciality but has yet to be proven, keep up!

The next step for RKH is to organise the dates for appraisal wells to be sunk, close by or at a distance to find out the limits of the field. This probably won't happen until january or february at the earliest as Desire will want the rig for several wells in a row. Also the question of finance will come into the equation, do they have enough funds for the suite of the campaign ?.
A big boy coming in to help would not be a bad idea but unless a super deal for Rockhopper is on the cards, they probably at this moment in time would prefer to wait.
At the moment, my view is that it is fully valued but there are other prospects but like with all oil companies, it is hit and miss.....they have other prospects within their license, but will people want to lock in profits now ?, as to my mind : half a billion barrels is already in the sp.
It would take a field of several billion barrels to send this to 10 and upwards but much more drilling is required and one well with a flow of 2600 barrels or 4000 with the right equipment is not enough.